Contrarian Plays: Week 13
It’s time to shake off the post Thanksgiving hangover and get back on the DFS horse for week 13. Before we get started, I wanted to say thank you to Brian Malone for covering for me in week 12 while I was away seeing my family. Let’s take a look at how we did in week 12.
What worked:
Brian knocked it out of the park with his selection of Russell Wilson who he correctly predicted would be a GPP winner. Wilson put up 35.2 FanDuel points, good for a staggering 4.6x return on your investment. Blake Bortles also performed well and returned 3.4x on your investment of $7,300.
Chris Ivory was a good play as well with his 102 total yards and a touchdown.
At wide receiver, Brian once again killed it with his selection of Sammy Watkins who dominated the Kansas City secondary in the first half to the tune of six catches for 158 yards and two touchdowns. Watkins gave you 30.8 FanDuel points for your $6,800 and a whopping 4.5x return on your investment. I hope for your sake you listened to Brian and had both Watkins and Wilson in your lineups. Donte Moncrief was also a good call and was the leading receiver for the Colts in week 12 with eight receptions for 114 yards.
At the always volatile tight end position you are really looking for a touchdown as that almost always means you have a top ten TE for the week. Jordan Reed didn’t get in the end zone last week but he did catch eight balls for 98 yards. If you can’t get a touchdown then you want the volume Reed is currently getting. The matchup against the Giants who are one of the worst in the league against the position also helped us out.
What didn’t work:
Duke Johnson disappointed but the process behind the selection was sound. The same goes for Allen Hurns who couldn’t overcome the myriad of injuries he played through in week 12
All in all, a very nice week for DLF’s Brian Malone. I have a lot of work to do this week to live up to the lofty standards he set last week. Let’s get into week 13!
Quarterback
Jay Cutler – $7,000
The Niners didn’t allow a single passing touchdown to Carson Palmer last week and Cutler had only one against the Packers on Thanksgiving. To me that says no one is going to be on Cutler this week, which means you should be. The Niners defense has played much better at home this season and the Bears are lucky enough to get them in Chicago for week 13. In fact they have given up at least two touchdowns to every quarterback on the road not named Nick Foles. Cutler should easily return value in week 13 and has the upside to destroy it.
Alex Smith – $6,600
Need to save $400? Consider Alex Smith in a game against a Raiders defense giving up 18.9 points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Smith hasn’t thrown an interception since week three and has a nice floor every week. He connected on several long passes last week so here’s hoping he continues being aggressive downfield and has a ceiling higher than usual this week against a division rival. If not then you at least know he won’t kill you and you can use the extra cash on studs at other positions. [inlinead]
Running Back
Jonathan Stewart – $7,200
I generally shy away from Stewart because of the lack of touchdown upside thanks to both Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert getting a large percentage of the goal line carries but this week they get the New Orleans Saints who are allowing the second most points per game to the running back position at 30.7. In a game where Carolina should dominate the line of scrimmage I expect Stewart to put up one of his best games of the season against a division rival.
Jeremy Hill  – $6,600 and Giovani Bernard – $6,200
Watch the injury reports on Hill this week as he left last week’s game early with an ankle injury. The Bengals are likely to have a runaway victory against the Browns in week 13 with Austin Davis getting the start for Cleveland at quarterback. This spells good things for the Cincinnati run game. On Monday night Buck Allen had success both as a runner and a receiver which could mean Bernard has a nice game as well. If Hill misses the game or is limited in practice this week then Bernard is a near must play for me both in cash and GPP.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton – $7,300
Hilton had a decent game in week 12 but was slightly out produced by Donte Moncrief in both yards and receptions. I think it flips this week against the Steelers who just allowed five passing touchdowns to the Seahawks. Hilton is set up for one of his patented two touchdown games this week against a secondary giving up 44.4 points per game to opposing wide receivers. Watch the weather report on this one but the Colts are going to need to pass the ball to keep up with the Pittsburgh offense. Look for Hilton to break at least one long reception in this one. He is the type of receiver who can have an entire day’s worth of fantasy production on a single play.
Brandon LaFell – $6,600
The Patriots offense mostly disappointed in week 12 and that includes LaFell who was forced into a WR1 role due to all the injuries in New England’s receiver group. Help is on the way in week 13 when the Eagles and their dead last pass defense come to Foxborough. Look for Tom Brady to pick apart the Philadelphia defense and for LaFell to rebound from a disappointing game. As of Wednesday it looks like Danny Amendola could be back this week, which will take some of the defensive pressure away from LaFell. I won’t fault you for going with Amendola instead of LaFell but I do think LaFell has the higher upside this week which is what we are looking for in our GPP lineups.
DeVante Parker – $5,200
I love Parker as a punt play at receiver this week at home against Baltimore. In week 12 Parker recorded career highs in targets, yards, receptions, and got in the end zone for his first NFL touchdown. I’m taking this as a sign the team wants to get him more involved in the offense down the final stretch of the season. Double digit targets for a receiver who only costs $5200 is an asset I want in my GPP lineups, especially when the opponent is a Ravens team giving up the fifth most schedule adjusted points to wide receivers at 40.7 points per game.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph – $5,100
It might surprise you to know the Seahawks are giving it up to the tight end position this season but it’s true. Seattle is the second worst team in the league at defending tight ends and allowing 17 points per game to the position. Last week Heath Miller was on his way to a big game before getting hurt, and I’m going back to the well again this week with a player who broke my heart a couple of weeks ago when he dropped a touchdown pass against the Raiders. Everyone deserves a second chance though and to me Rudolph is one of the best combinations of value and ownership percentage at the tight end position this week.
DST
Washington – $4,400
Targeting defenses playing against Dallas quarterbacks has worked out pretty well this season and that continues this week with the Cowboys on the road in Washington. Dallas has given up 10.6 points per game on average to opposing fantasy defenses and now that they are faced with a lost season could mail it in this week on the road against a division rival. Washington provides a solid floor this week and a decent ceiling as well.
Good luck in all your week 13 matchups!
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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