Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I’m out of contention and was offered Jeremy Hill for LeSean McCoy, DeVante Parker, and my fourth round pick. I have no problem moving McCoy with lots of running back talent but I’m thin at receiver going into next year. Is Parker too high of a price? I could counter by offering Eddie Royal, Devin Smith or Breshad Perriman. – Nathaniel in MN
Truth be told I wouldn’t accept that deal for Bills runner LeSean McCoy on his own. Jeremy Hill has been an abject failure for the vast majority of the year, last week excluded. Yes, he looked good as a freshman in 2014, but the totality of Hill’s sample size as a starter actually resides on the negative side of the ledger at this point in time. McCoy, on the other hand, has seemingly found the fountain of youth now that he’s finally healthy, accumulating at least 90 total yards in each of the last six games, while raising his YPC average to 4.5 in the process. It’s more than reasonable to argue that even despite his age he’s currently the better dynasty asset. I’d stand pat, even despite your depth at the position.
- I’ve already earned a week 14 playoff bye so, at best, I’m looking at 2016 pick 1.09. Our semifinals are week 15, and our league has a two-week championship in weeks 16 and, gulp, 17. Even with a sizable point per game spread, and a good record against the league, should I still look to move that late first for a running back? I prefer to hold on to picks until draft time where they’re immeasurably more valuable than a three-week prayer for a rental player. – Dave in CA
I don’t think you have to move the pick. Instead why not look to trade for a guy like Jonathan Stewart, Chris Ivory, or even some transient talent like Shaun Draughn? Perhaps the Doug Martin owner in your league still hasn’t come around full circle to his current value, and you could get him for a cheaper package (players and picks). I’m all for going all out if you have a dynamite chance to win it all, but it doesn’t need to involve a blockbuster deal.
- Would you trade your entire rookie draft (one first, two seconds, and a third) when their values are highest before the draft for a stud (like AJ Green), or do you feel this is giving too much or too little? I’m planning on pulling this off to avoid having to drop players and add to my top shelf players at the same time. – Mark in FL
[inlinead]?It’s certainly worth a shot. As you mentioned, draft picks will never be worth more than when they’re just about to be utilized, when they represent the idea of any available player instead of being shoehorned into a singular entity. As such, dynasty aficionados will typically go nuts to acquire them if possible, when can tend to lead to the devaluation of veteran studs. Given that Bengals receiver AJ Green is one such stud who never seems to get the “stud” treatment, I see no problem with going for it, especially since it means you’ll effectively be freeing up three roster spots. Just don’t be surprised if you get rejected and need to add a sweetener on top.
- I’m in a two-player keeper league and I’m starting to think about next year and would like your thoughts on who I should keep. My top options are: Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Allen Hurns, Chris Ivory, Stefon Diggs, Martavis Bryant, and I just picked up Eddie Lacy from the waivers. Out of those players, who are your two keepers? – Trevor in WA
It has to be Julio Jones and Amari Cooper, hands down. Both are early-to-mid first round picks in a startup draft, and should also possess the most long-term value. The other players you listed are solid, and Eddie Lacy enters the conversation at the very least, but he’s been far too spotty for me to advise taking him over the two above. Jones and Cooper should give you the best combination of both immediate and future production.
- It’s looking like I’m going to have the first overall pick in 2016, or at worst the second pick. Can you give me a list of names I should be paying attention too, now that the college season is winding down? – Brian in MA
I’ll let our devy experts at Dynasty Scouts take it away – click it here!
- I’m wondering if you like the trades I just made in my 2QB league. Being weaker at receiver I traded Eddie Lacy, Jarvis Landry and two 2018 firsts for Demaryius Thomas, Tavon Austin and a couple of 2016 thirds. Then I moved Ryan Tannehill and Austin for Greg Olsen, Julian Edelman, Sam Bradford and a 2017 2nd. Thoughts? – Garry in Canada
I’m not in love with the first deal. Though you did get the best asset in Demaryius Thomas, the combination of Eddie Lacy and Jarvis Landry arguably should’ve been enough on their own. It’s true your picks can’t be used for a few years, but since you gave two firsts away I think you could’ve gotten a bit more in return than Tavon Austin (who I like), and a pair of thirds.
With that said, you definitely made good in your second trade. Greg Olsen and Julian Edelman are easily the best two non-QB pieces in the deal, and while I prefer Ryan Tannehill to Sam Bradford I think this bridged the gap and then some. The 2017 second round pick helps take away some of the sting of losing your first rounders. All told I think you made out about even, though I would’ve liked to see you get a bit more out of the first transaction.
- I am currently in first place and am also the second highest scoring team. I received an offer to give up Cam Newton to receive Sammy Watkins, Tyrod Taylor, plus 2016 second and third round picks. At first, it seems like a clear trade for me. However, it is a 2QB league that favors running quarterback (only 1 point per 50 yards passing and 4 points per passing touchdown compared to 1 point per 10 yards rushing and 6 points per rushing score). With this scoring and my chance at a championship, what do you think? – Grant in MN
I think I’d stand pat. Sammy Watkins is finally living up to his draft-day value, but Cam Newton is arguably the fantasy MVP given your league’s scoring settings and positional requirements. Tyrod Taylor has been legit so far this year, but the sample size remains definitively small – this would give me a significant amount of pause when trading a dynasty mainstay like Newton. Given that your current roster is already working well for you, I don’t see any reason to upset the apple cart.
- I am considering a last-minute trade for a kicker, or rather THE kicker, in Stephen Gostkowski. He seems to be the one option providing steady production at a high level. I would be sending Tevin Coleman and my kicker (Cairo Santos) for Buck Allen and Gostkowski. I’m making a championship push and he is out of it, despite owning Devonta Freeman. Since I have more than enough running back depth, I can afford to shop Coleman. Your thoughts? – Tim in Belgium
I’m fine with the deal, but it has more to do with the fact I view Tevin Coleman and Buck Allen as an effective dead heat at the current moment in time. Yes, Stephen Gostkowski is fantastic, but at the end of the day I don’t see him offering a significant advantage over who you already have. If you’d rather have Allen, then make the deal, but I don’t think you’d be kicking yourself over losing out on a kicker.
- I am trying to make a move for Antonio Brown. I am insanely deep at receiver, but I would love to get Brown and he is available. Do you like either of these deals, and if so, which is better? In deal one I’d give Dez Bryant, Jeremy Hill and Tyler Lockett to get Brown and a late third round pick. In deal two I’d give Bryant, Ben Roethlisberger, Lockett, and a first round pick to get Brown and a third. Thoughts? – Jeremiah in IL
I’d stand pat. I am a huge Antonio Brown fan and actually have him ranked as my dynasty WR2, but it’s not as if Dez Bryant represents some sort of massive downgrade. No, Bryant hasn’t put forward the type of stats we’ve come to expect from him this year, but much of that has to do with injury, but to himself as well as quarterback Tony Romo. Given that, you’d be selling low on Dez while simultaneously buying high on Brown – there’s certainly a time and place for these trading concepts that buck conventional wisdom, but I don’t think either of these specific cases function as such. I’m all for buying Brown, but would prefer to see you give up a little less.
- A contender in my league is in an interesting position where he is also in the playoffs but doesn’t think he can win it, so he’s looking to capitalize on getting value by selling vets. He owns Dez Bryant, and although the time to buy him would’ve been weeks ago while he’s injured, I’m looking to trade for him now. Being the stud that he is, it’s going to take a haul to get him onto my squad. The owner is also a fairly sensitive owner to prospective trades, so I don’t want to come across as trying to lowball him off the bat. With that being said, do you think Kevin White/DeVante Parker, Carlos Hyde, and a 2016 first is a reasonable place to start talks? I’m not sure I want to add anything onto that, even though I could offer another 2017 first. – Thomas in NY
It’s certainly not an insulting offer, especially given your prospective trade partner is clearly trying to move out of your league’s mushy middle. The trio of the pick, Carlos Hyde and one of those rookie receivers is effectively saying you’re willing to part with three first round selections for Bryant, whose virtues I just finished extolling in the previous question. Moreover, much of trading can ultimately come down to psychology, and it seems as if your league-mate is looking to make a “splashy” deal. This would certainly qualify as such, given the potential for him to gain three young, “sexy” starters for one. I have no problem with offering the deal as you’re still trying to win it all and would be receiving the only proven asset in the trade, and I certainly don’t find it offensive on any level.
- I am out of playoff contention, and have an interesting offer from an owner who is currently the third seed in the playoffs. I would get Josh Gordon, and he would get Latavius Murray. Do you think I get too thin without Murray, given my other running backs are in the uncertainty of Seattle and Arizona? Is Gordon worth the risk? – Brian in CA
I’m honestly fine with it. Yes, Browns receiver Josh Gordon is a perpetual head case, but thus far has kept his nose clean this season. When he’s on the field, he possesses upper echelon level talent. The risks are certainly there, but the juice could ultimately be worth the squeeze.
As for Raiders ball carrier Latavius Murray, he’s cooled down quite a bit after a fast start to the season, rushing for 4.0 YPC or less over the last three contests. He’s still averaging a respectable 4.3 YPC on the season, but has looked more like a volume-dependent grinder than anything. Given that he never exceeded 200 carries in any collegiate season, it’s fair to wonder if he’s beginning to get worn out in his every-down role.
While the jury is still out on Murray’s ultimate upside, I’d be shocked if he could ever approach Gordon’s ceiling. Since you’re out of playoff contention anyhow, points don’t matter to you for the rest of the year. Fortune favors the bold, and Gordon could propel you into the ranks of the contenders next year – I think I’d make the move.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27[ad5]?