Tales of the Tape: Jameis Winston

Benton McDonald

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The NFL is at a peculiar crossroads with quarterbacks. On one hand, the “Over 30” crowd of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, and Aaron Rodgers are showing both the unique ability of quarterbacks to play well into their 30’s as well as the disastrous effects of age. However, excluding Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Russell Wilson, all of the “Under 30” quarterbacks are still developing, underwhelming or sitting on the bench (Sorry, Colin Kaepernick). This interesting gap is especially relevant for dynasty football players. At no other position would we see five players over 30 in the top 15 staff rankings; however, at no other position would young players with seemingly mediocre production through their first few years see such high positional rankings. Additionally, owners are increasingly being forced to bet on either A) the continued [elite] production of aging quarterbacks or B) young quarterbacks making the jump to an elite level and offering consistent production for the next ten-15 years. As college offenses switch to nearly all spread-based, many touted passers are coming into the league as “projects” with teams increasingly giving longer leashes as they let them grow into an NFL offense. Players such as Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, and Blake Bortles will be interesting case studies for the latter of the two options presented. However one player, Jameis Winston,seems ready to join the elite quarterback club at the ripe age of 21.

The reigning first overall pick had his coming out party this past Sunday in Philadelphia. Winston, who has the Buccaneers in the Wild Card chase, threw for 246 yards with five touchdowns in a 45-17 rout of the Eagles. I dove into the tape to see what’s making this young quarterback the leading force behind a surprising resurgence in Tampa Bay.

Ball Placement

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Time and time again when watching Winston I was blown away by his ball placement. The ability to put the ball in the exact place where only his receiver can catch it is a skill that few players have, and one that separates the great from the good. Especially with a receiver like Mike Evans, who is constantly going for jump balls in contested situations, Winston is able to elevate the offense with his passing touch. Take for example this passing touchdown to Evans in the first quarter against Philadelphia:

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While Evans clearly has an advantage with his size, if that ball is in any other place he doesn’t score. Furthermore, Winston’s placement on slant routes, placing the ball to hit the receiver in stride and allow for critical YAC, is a small positive that can go a long way in the formation of an elite quarterback. The consistency in accurate ball placement is something that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet but is paramount for a quarterback to make NFL throws. This touchdown to Cameron Brate is a great example of an “NFL throw” against tight coverage from a linebacker, Winston places it in the incredibly small window that only a handful of quarterbacks in the league can.

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Consistency

Perhaps even more telling than his ball placement, Winston’s consistency with his throws is leaps and bounds ahead of what we have grown to expect with rookies. Especially coming from a 2014 season at Florida State in which he threw 18 interceptions, often on bad decisions, the sudden consistency in both his decisions and throws is placing him on a different level. And it’s not just a consistency in the open throws. Against Philadelphia, he continually found his guys in tight windows, often splitting multiple defenders. And while he did have some miscues, these often fell on plays when he was being hit as he threw as well as a few miscommunications and two overthrows. If he can continue his ability to be consistent in both the little things and the throws against coverage, there is no reason as to why he can’t become an upper level NFL quarterback sooner rather than later.

Timing

Often when playing against zone defenses and sometimes even man, timing is critical for a quarterback, especially in the NFL where these windows can be open for less than three seconds. It’s very clear when watching Winston that he has a gift for timing his throws that many quarterbacks would beg to have. This gift, coupled with his deep football knowledge, is creating a player that has an innate ability to simply make throws that not many others can. His increasing confidence level is also leading to more and more of these deep throws in which he slices up a zone defense with both his timing and ball placement. Take for example this throw to Evans on a deep crossing route:

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Winston times his throw to land exactly between the two defenders and somehow allow Evans to make this catch in a square of four Eagles. This type of timing, stemming from knowledge of the defense as well as an incredibly accurate arm, can split apart any defenders it sees.

After watching this game twice, I am amazed at how well Winston looks in his rookie year. While some can be attributed to the game plan first year offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is building, he is playing on a level few thought he would reach so soon. Rejecting the draft season narrative that he was a “reckless” decision maker who would most certainly throw upwards of 15 interceptions, his consistency has made him look as polished as any other passer to come out the last few years. His ability to do the little things: throw a screen pass, execute a play action fake, lead his receiver on slant routes, throw the ball away when pressured, are going a long way in creating the expected offensive rookie of the year. This consistency, coupled with his somewhat un-coachable gifts of timing and ball placement, is making it harder and harder for defenses to plan against him and easier for him to feel confident in an NFL offense. If Winston can continue to build up his comfort level in the NFL as well as his confidence, his abilities as a quarterback will have us routinely selecting him as a top three-dynasty quarterback within the next two years.

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