The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Truth: Week 11
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter, and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
For this week I’m actually going to go back to the early season format for this column and take a look at a pair of players who seemed to explode onto the scene this week. With a number of injuries to players or their quarterbacks making some starters unusable, their fantasy owns are scrambling for starters down the stretch. Could JJ Nelson or Spencer Ware become a viable option for the playoffs or potentially next season?
JJ Nelson, WR ARI
Season stats: 7 receptions for 212 yards and 1 touchdown. (All of this occurred in just two games)
Week 11 stats: 4 receptions on six targets for 142 yards and a score.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
A fifth round rookie selection in the 2015 draft, Nelson received a lot of hype this spring as being the next small receiver who could be a draft day steal. He was compared to players like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate and TY Hilton as a small receiver with great speed. I don’t think the comparisons were all that fair though, especially since Nelson was more of a pure athlete and less of a receiver than any of those guys are, even when they were coming out of college. Nelson was easily the best return man in the draft, but no one expected him to do much in the passing game with his 155 pound frame. Was Monday a sign of things to come or just the perfect storm?
The Good: The best news for Nelson is he has a lot of what you can’t teach. He is lightning fast, has an explosive first step, good focus and a nice pair of hands. When you have those qualities teams are often willing to work with you on the things you struggle with. Not only that, but he has one of the best and hardest working receivers in the game to look to as a mentor in Larry Fitzgerald. If you’re willing to work, which by all accounts Nelson is, Fitz will show you how to get a whole lot better. He has been very willing over the years to help young receivers figure out the game and refine what they do to become more effective on the field.
The Bad: The most glaring issue for Nelson is size. Yes, he is 5’10” and there are a lot of very successful receivers at or near that height. We could make quite the list of receivers under six feet tall. The bigger concern for me is his weight and build. He’s only 155 pounds! That’s less than the average guy walking the street and much less than most athletes. He has an extremely slight build, and that could cause issues. I’m not just talking potential injury issues but also his ability to win any kind of physical contact, either at the line or at the point of the catch. He needs to bulk up a bit and add to his frame, but it is fair to wonder what an extra 15 pounds will do to his main asset, his speed.
The other major concern for Nelson is the depth chart. With Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown all signed through at least the 2016 season, that doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for Nelson. By the time someone above him is moving on, it is likely the Cardinals could be in rebuilding mode on offense and searching for a new quarterback. So without a rash of injuries, it might be tough for Nelson to see the field on a regular basis.
The Ugly Truth: Nelson has a ton of speed and some pretty good hands, making him a very solid deep threat. However, with his size and current skills he is going to be pretty limited in his role on offense. If he is willing to work, he might be able to add some weight to his frame and increase his route running ability to one day be a more complete receiver, but that day might be a few years away. He’s currently buried on the depth chart, and I don’t see that changing in the near future. He’s worth a stash, but you’re going to need to be patient with the youngster and keep expectations in check. I’m probably more inclined to sell him off to someone willing to overpay based on last week.
Final Verdict: He’s undersized, currently has a limited skill set and is buried on the depth chart. He’s going to be very boom or bust even when he is seeing the field on a regular basis. He should probably be owned in all leagues since the Cardinals are lighting it up, but I’m not starting him unless I’m desperate.
Spencer Ware, RB KC
Week 11 stats: 11 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns.
A lot of people might think Ware is a rookie, but he was actually drafted back in the sixth round of the 2013 draft by the Seattle Seahawks. At the time there was a chance he was going to be their new fullback but ended up playing a mix of fullback and tailback roles. He didn’t make it very long with the Seahawks as he was placed on IR after a week two ankle injury during his rookie year. That summer he was arrested for a DUI (though charges were later dropped) and then failed to make the Seahawks 53 man roster. He was then arrested a second time on a DUI charge and spent some time out of football. He eventually signed on with the Chiefs as a practice squad player and was promoted due to all of the injuries.
The Good: Ware has ideal size at 5’10” and just under 230 pounds. He is a no-nonsense downhill runner who runs hard behind his pads and punishes defenders. He has the patience/vision to let his blockers do their job before hitting the hole. He almost always falls forward. When you combine all of that with a very good offensive line in Kansas City he should be able to produce if he gets the chance, much like he did in week 11.
The Bad: While Ware has great size and power, he is lacking when it comes to speed and agility. He isn’t going to beat any defenders to the corner nor is he going to make many people miss in the open field. Ideally he would not be a feature back but rather a short yardage specialist, because he is very good in those situations as his pair of touchdowns show. His week 11 production should come with an asterisk because it was all in garbage time against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
The Ugly Truth: Ware isn’t going to make anyone forget about Charcandrick West’s great run this season. In fact, he probably isn’t even going to make it any kind of time share with the potential exception of goal line carries. Ware had the perfect storm in week 11 of playing a terrible run defense in garbage time with a very good offensive line in front of him. If he gets another opportunity due to injury, he could produce but probably not at that level.
Long term, I don’t see much value for Ware. There are clearly some off the field and/or maturity issues here with multiple DUI arrests. On the field his skill set is rather limited, making his upside as the short yardage part of a committee. In a touchdown heavy league he might be worth a flier, but otherwise I don’t see much to like here. Although he likely went for a lot of blind bidding money since waivers are almost done for the year.
Final Verdict: If you picked him up, try to move him to a contender. Ware’s time in the spotlight is likely very short lived and he isn’t going to repeat his week 11 performance. In fact, he might not even be on a roster in 2016. Nothing to see here outside of the potential for a very brief window of production.
[/am4show]
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
