Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 11

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

Saint Louis at Baltimore

Number to Remember (NTR) – 178

In what is anything but a revelation, the Rams are a terrible pass offense, last with 178 yards per game. The Ravens are 26^th in the NFL with 271 pass yards per game allowed, with five games of 293 pass yards or more. The Rams are prepared to shake things up to complement their potent rushing attack.

A long-awaited change, Case Keenum is stepping in for Nick Foles, who struggled to pass for over 200 yards, much less direct an offense. While Keenum is no gun slinger, he did average 220 yards and just over a touchdown per game as a ten game starter in Houston. He should take the risks that Foles was never willing to, for better and for worse.

The other rookie tight end, Nick Boyle, has had multiple receptions in five of the last seven games. Speed is not his game (over five seconds in the 40 yard dash), but he tested extremely well in the shuttle drills, showing his change of direction skills and short area burst. There is work to be done by the small school tight end, but he is already making contributions early. An interesting deep stash.

Denver at Chicago

NTR – 399

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This game features two teams who are putting the clamps on the pass game, with Denver (182, first) and the Bears (217, fourth) having allowed only one 300 yard passer between them. Expect this to be a battle of the ground games, a place where the Bears could have the advantage.

Another starter down in Peyton Manning and now we get to see what Brock Osweiler has. This will be his first start, but he has filled in on several occasions in the past. Osweiler has always struggled with accuracy and his lack of vision over the offensive line is astounding for a 6’7” quarterback. I do not see him as a long-term starter but he may have a few useful weeks until they find a long-term Manning replacement.

A veteran who had done little until the last two weeks, Zach Miller has been on fire lately. He has three touchdowns in the last two weeks including an 87 yard scamper against Saint Louis. I bring him up as a nice story, not a dynasty option.

Oakland at Detroit

NTR – 44.2 and 27.2

In a battle of wills, does Detroit’s inefficient scoring offense (scoring on just 27.2% of drives, second worst) take advantage of the generous Oakland scoring defense (44.2% of drives allowed to score, second highest)? Considering these two teams allow an average of 55.8 points per game, this should be a shootout if Detroit can play their role.

Every time I try to shovel some dirt on Mychal Rivera, the Raiders find a new way to dig him out. Last week, he caught six of seven targets, the former leading the team and both season highs for the third year tight end. Rivera’s snap share remains around 40%, but Clive Walford has been a better big play threat. Rivera’s best chance may be with a new team.

The mysterious season of Golden Tate continues. He has had highs (18 targets in week five) and lows (last week’s four targets, fifth on the team) on the season and this is his fourth straight year where his yards per catch have declined. The 78 catch pace is in line with expectations, the 762 receiving yards are not.

Indianapolis at Atlanta

NTR – 23

When you face a team predicated on passing, you have to pressure the quarterback. The Falcons (10, last) and Colts (13, third) are among the worst in sacks, showing the glaring weakness that is their pass rush. Expect a lot of time and clean pockets for these quarterbacks to generate pass stats.

Matt Hasselbeck is once again first chair for signal caller as Andrew Luck is sidelined indefinitely. In two starts this year, Hasselbeck has completed 63% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He is an old man who struggles with mobility, meaning those aforementioned clean pockets will be sorely needed.

The Falcons signed linebacker Philip Wheeler just a few weeks ago and he is already seeing over 70% of the defensive snaps. He even led the team in tackles against San Francisco and has two 100 tackle season on his ledger. Wheeler is capable of racking up the tackles on a team that needs all the defensive help that can get.

Washington at Carolina

NTR – 33.7

Carolina likes to run, leading the league with 33.7 rush attempts per game. Washington struggles to defend, giving up 4.8 yards per carry to running backs (fourth highest) and 5.0 overall (worst). The game plan will be easy to figure out for one of these teams.

Rookie Matt Jones has had a tumultuous season but still has had double digit touches in all but two games this year. Jones remains in an even split with Alfred Morris on snaps but has been the more explosive option, especially outside the red zone. Jones will be an inconsistent touchdown scorer due to his ineffectiveness inside the red zone, but his ability to make big plays gives him yardage upside.

With Corey Brown expected to miss this week’s contest, rookie Devin Funchess is the likely recipient of the increase in snaps. That could have Funchess seeing over 50% of the snaps for the first time this year. Add in Brown’s four targets per game and Funchess could rival Ted Ginn for team lead among wide receivers.

Dallas at Miami

NTR – 61.1

Since the bye week, the Dolphins have increased their rushing yards per game by 61.1 (from 68.5 to 129.6), the latter number would have them as a top five rushing offense. Dallas is the third toughest against opposing fantasy quarterbacks, but as an average run defense, Miami should continue with their new offensive identity.

After missing roughly half the season, Tony Romo is returning to quarterback after the Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel experiments largely failed. The team is currently bottom ten in completions, attempts, passing touchdowns, and points scored. Dez Bryant and company could be playoff gold for dynasty teams now that Romo is back.

In his first 11 carries, rookie Jay Ajayi is already looking like a fifth round steal. Knee concerns aside, Ajayi appears explosive in limited time (under 20% of offensive snaps) and could be the complement to Lamar Miller that has been missing since Knowshon Moreno was injured a year ago. The eight yards per carry will not continue, but Ajayi should remain a legitimate threat on this offense.

New York Jets at Houston

NTR – 5.1 and 4.9

Houston has been lauded for the number of plays they run, but they are inefficient, averaging only 4.9 yards per play (second worst). Meanwhile, the Jets are fourth in the league in allowing just 5.1 yards per play, which indicates the Texans will need that volume to have any chance in this one.

The offense is largely set, but Chris Ivory did have a nice rebound last week against a tough Bills run defense. His 135 total yards was just seven yards less than his last three weeks combined. There is little reason to believe he will wear down towards the end of the season and the team should rely on him given a potential playoff spot on the line.

Another team with a quarterback change, T.J. Yates will be starting for the injured Brian Hoyer. In five starts his rookie year (was injured early in the fifth), Yates completed over 60% of his passes and had a 3:3 touchdown to interception split. He has been more of a short yardage, conservative quarterback so let’s see how that changes in this offense.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia

NTR – 15.7

Tampa Bay is pretty good at derailing their offense, committing turnovers on 15.7% of their drives. Unfortunately, they get Philadelphia defense, who leads the NFL in turnovers (23) and are second in percent of drives they have ended in a turnover (17.4%). The negatives could well outweigh the positives for Tampa this week.

One inexplicable 79 catch season aside, veteran tight end Brandon Myers has largely been unnecessary to track in dynasty leagues. He does have four multi-catch games this year and is used more regularly than Cameron Brate. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins needs to come back!

Two players of interest in this game: Mark Sanchez and Darren Sproles. Sanchez replaces injured Sam Bradford while Sproles should see an increase in playing time with Ryan Mathews out. Expect Jordan Matthews to see more downfield targets with Sanchez while DeMarco Murray could see some changes in usage.

Afternoon Games

Kansas City at San Diego

NTR – 2:25 and 2:58

In the world of an offense eating up the clock, the Chargers are royalty with a 2:58 average drive time. The Chiefs, meanwhile, struggle to get their defense off the field with a 2:25 average drive time allowed. Both are fourth in the league, although only one of those rankings is a good thing for their respective teams.

With multiple receptions in four of the last five weeks, RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas has become the complement to Charcandrick West. He remains a reliable option (68% catch rate) and is on pace to surpass his rookie numbers in targets, catches, and total yards. The Chiefs should continue to carve out a role for the gadget player.

The Chargers are running low on receivers, giving Dontrelle Inman even more importance in the offense. Last game, Inman tied his season high with three catches and served as an underneath option for Philip Rivers. With Malcom Floyd out, I suspect he gets a chance to operate further down the field.

San Francisco at Seattle

NTR – 59.4

Looking for a game featuring the pass? This one is not for you. These teams combine to throw 59.4 pass attempts per game, both ranked in the bottom five. If that is not enough, consider that the Seahawks allow just 32.2 pass attempts per game, second fewest in the league.

Primary runner Carlos Hyde is out again with Pierre Thomas and Shaun Draughn the likely committee members (maybe some Kendall Gaskins too). I am most interested in Thomas, the former Saint who has shown the most well-rounded game, highlighted by his 327 career receptions. San Francisco will likely struggle with the run, making those underneath passes out of the backfield a viable alternative.

A favorite of mine from the 2014 draft class, sophomore Paul Richardson made his return last week, contributing a 40 yard reception. Richardson was largely used as an underneath option in his rookie year before his terrible knee injury. With Chris Matthews recently released, the team seems optimistic that Richardson is full recovered. He is a great end of the bench stash option.

Green Bay at Minnesota

NTR – 49 and 42

Although Green Bay has struggled running the ball, they have limited negative plays, accounting for just 49 of them this year (bottom ten). Minnesota is fourth lowest on defense with just 42 runs stuffed for negative yards. The last thing you want to give Aaron Rodgers is a shorter field.

Desperate for receiving options, Rodgers turned to tight end Justin Perillo, the second year player from Maine. He caught five of six targets for 58 yards and the first touchdown of his short career. Perillo is another in a long line of slower tight ends (4.9 40 yard dash) who operate underneath. With the wide open nature of the position, Perillo could maintain a semblance of value through 2015.

Another tight end quandary, the Vikings have struggled to make Kyle Rudolph, Rhett Ellison, or MyCole Pruitt fantasy relevant. Rudolph continues to see the lion’s share of offensive snaps (85% last week) while Pruitt and Ellison have created more big plays. I have touted Pruitt in the past but this situation will be murky until the Vikings put more focus on the position.

Sunday Night Game

Cincinnati at Arizona

NTR – 81

All the talk of these two offenses overshadows the defense. Arizona (first) and Cincinnati (fourth) are among the best in limiting deep pass plays (15+ yards), combining for 81 allowed on the year. Unsurprisingly, the offenses do well on these plays with 130 such passes. Unstoppable force, immovable object…yada, yada, yada.

Can someone tell me what happened to Jeremy Hill? The talent is still there, but something has changed. He is struggling in the second half (2.8 ypc) and sees a large split when the team is leading (2.9 ypc) compared to when they are trailing (4.4 ypc). These splits were less pronounced in 2014.

While Chris Johnson leads this backfield, Andre Ellington has carved out a role where his explosiveness has been on display. Ellington is just one of seven running backs with multiple 40 yard runs. He has done it on 29 carries, the best rate of any of the runners in the NFL (DeAngelo Williams is second with 2 on 107 carries).

Monday Night Game

Buffalo at New England

NTR – 28.5 and 31.5

The Patriots win at many things, including field position. They have an average start on offense at the 31.5 yard line, best in the NFL. The Bills are seventh worst, allowing opponents to start all the way at the 28.5 yard line. Short fields will only help the Patriots as they regain their footing from the various offensive injuries.

Even in a limited role, Karlos Williams has been very effective. He has a touchdown in every game this season, including three since he returned to the field two weeks ago. Williams remains a top long-term runner from this running back class and could continue to be useful even with LeSean McCoy around.

I can’t believe I am ending this week’s article with Aaron Dobson. The Patriots are running low on healthy receivers so Dobson should get another chance. He did have four targets last week (second highest total of the year), but only managed to catch one of them. Expect the team to expand on last week’s 26% offensive snap share for Dobson.

*All numbers courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference

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