Contrarian Plays: Week 11

Matt Price Posted On November 21, 2015

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We had one big hit and a bunch of big whiffs in week 10. Let’s take a look at our picks from last week.

What worked:

If you played played Kirk Cousins as your quarterback in week 10, then you very likely cashed in a GPP. For just $6500 on FanDuel Cousins gave us 324 yards and four passing touchdowns on 20/25 attempts – good for 28.96 points and a return of 4.5x on our investment. Cousins finished as the QB1 for the week and had a perfect passer rating. I think one of the lessons to be learned here is that in tournaments there is little reason to pay up for the “elite” quarterbacks if there is a cheaper alternative who is playing at home in a good matchup.

James Starks didn’t blow up like I thought but he was heavily involved in the offense and paid off at just over 2x value.

What didn’t work:

It was a sad day watching Peyton Manning break the passing yardage record and get benched in the same game. After going 5/20 for 35 yards and four interceptions the Broncos made the switch to Brock Osweiler. It’s very likely we have seen the last of Manning. He is apparently suffering from a partially torn plantar fascia that could take the rest of the season to heal.

It was Ryan Mathews, not DeMarco Murray who got a touchdown but he didn’t do quite enough to get us to more than 2x value.

None of our wide receivers worked out. Despite Cousins throwing four touchdowns, DeSean Jackson wasn’t the recipient of any of them. The Giants gave the Patriots a better game than I thought and Brandon LaFell came up small catching just two of six targets for 66 yards. The Cowboys passing offense was completely inept despite the plus matchup. They failed to score a single touchdown and Dez Bryant caught just five passes for 45 yards

Kyle Rudolph broke my heart this weekend. Not only did another Vikings tight end catch a touchdown but Rudolph actually dropped one in the end zone. He was wide open and it hit him in the hands with his shoulders square to the quarterback but wasn’t able to make the catch.

[inlinead]This brings me to a topic I feel is extremely important in fantasy football. It applies to both DFS and seasonal. Fantasy football is a process driven game. What I mean is this: Just because the results were worse than expected doesn’t mean the decisions weren’t correct at the time with the information we had. If you are results oriented in this game then you will end up tearing your hair out eventually. If your process is good then you will win more than you lose. Remember that in weeks like this one when very little worked from a contrarian point of view. With that in mind let’s get to the picks for week 11.

Mark Sanchez – $6400

Sanchez is the likely starter for at least the next two weeks as Sam Bradford recovers from both a concussion and a separated shoulder. In 2014 after taking over the starting roll in week eight, Sanchez threw for multiple touchdown passes in six out of nine weeks. In week 11 The Eagles get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Philadelphia. The Bucs are allowing 17.8 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and in reality it’s more if you exclude last week against Brandon Weeden. With a full week of preparation in his second year in the Kelly offense, Sanchez should play well at home against the Buccaneers who until last week was giving it up to the pass. At just $6400 he should have no problem paying off his salary. It’s tough to do better than getting a starting quarterback playing at home against a bad pass defense. Priced as the 23rd-ranked quarterback, Sanchez represents a huge value in week 11 and will allow you to pay up for studs at other positions.

Alex Smith – $6200

Need to go even cheaper than Sanchez? How about Smith as the 26th-priced quarterback for $200 less than Sanchez. Smith has been steady this season, only failing to pay off a $6200 salary once in 2015. This week he travels to San Diego to face a Chargers team giving up 17 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If Smith hits the average then he has already paid off for us and anything extra is just gravy. The Chargers are coming off a bye and it is a road game against the Chiefs, which are concerns, but Smith hasn’t thrown an interception since week three. The value is too much to pass up here if you need to save the $200 on Sanchez.

James White – $5100

I’m not a big fan of James White as a player but his role and situation have vastly improved over the last two weeks. First Dion Lewis went down to a knee injury two weeks ago and in week 10 Julian Edelman broke a bone in his foot. These two injuries leave a huge hole in the short area passing game for the Patriots. Danny Amendola stands to be the primary beneficiary but there is room for another. White seems to be the best option after out-snapping Brandon Bolden 38 – 10 on offense. Sometimes the name of the game in GPP tournaments is to zig when everyone else is zagging. That’s the kind of play White represents this week against Buffalo.

Frank Gore – $6600

With Andrew Luck sidelined for 4-6 weeks the Colts turn to veteran Matt Hasselbeck to lead the team to the playoffs. To me this indicates the team will refocus on the running game which should mean great things for Frank Gore coming out of the bye week. While it is a road game for the Colts, it is also a great matchup for the running game. Atlanta is yielding 28.6 points per game to opposing running backs which is the fourth most in the league. Priced as the 18th ranked running back on FanDuel this week leaves a lot of room for for him to pay off his middling salary.

Steve Johnson – $5600

My favorite contrarian WR play of the week has to be the Charger wide receiver coming off a bye week and playing at home this week against a Kansas City pass defense yielding the second most points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Chargers are offensively a much better team than their 2-7 record indicates and should be able to move the ball against the KC secondary as long as the line can keep Philip Rivers on his feet. Priced as the 38th-ranked wide receiver in week 11, Johnson offers tremendous value.

Jordan Matthews – $6300

Coming into the season Matthews was highly regarded in most fantasy circles. He caught nine touchdown passes in 2014 and was a strong fantasy play down the stretch. It seemed like a second year in Kelly’s offense would allow him to continue to flourish but so far it hasn’t happened. Matthews didn’t seem to have the same chemistry with Bradford as he did Sanchez last season. This week could be a coming out party of sorts for Matthews now that the two are back together due to multiple injuries to Bradford. At home this week against the Bucs is a plus matchup for the Philadelphia passing matchup. With a full week of preparation and a matchup against a team giving up 38.4 points to opposing wide receivers, a Sanchez and Matthews stack could pay big dividends.

Calvin Johnson – $8100

Megatron is quietly chugging along at a 90 catch 1,300 yard pace this season. He has only had one big game for fantasy but he has been a solid contributor. This week the Lions get the Raiders at home in what could be a shootout as neither team is particularly good at defending the pass. Oakland is giving up 36.7 points per game to opposing wide receivers this season. That’s enough for me to pivot off of the other high priced options this week

Eric Ebron – $5400

We are going back to the TE playing Oakland well again this week. Last week the process was correct in choosing Rudolph as our play. There was a two touchdown game there for him but instead he dropped one and the second went to a backup. This week Ebron should see a nice volume of targets and easily pay off his price. If you don’t use Megatron in week 11 then consider playing Ebron instead against Oakland who is the number one matchup for opposing tight ends and allowing 18.7 points per game to the position.

DST

Philadelphia – $4900

In addition to being a good matchup to the passing game, the Buccaneers are also giving up the 6th most points to opposing defenses. That’s as good a matchup as any for a home favorite.

Have a great week 11 everyone.

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Matt Price

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Senior writer and co-host of the DLF Dynasty podcast, the longest running dynasty focused podcast on the planet

Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.

Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.