Tuesday Transactions: Week Ten

Eric Hardter

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Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.

In the interest of transparency, here were my week nine suggestions:

Buy Low: Dorial Green-Beckham, Jay Ajayi and DeSean Jackson

Sell High: Latavius Murray, Shane Vereen and Owen Daniels

Buy High: LeGarrette Blount, Randall Cobb and Allen Hurns

Sell Low: Jeremy Hill, Roddy White and Jarius Wright

Green Beckham (0-0-0) was blanked by the stout Carolina defense, Ajayi (6-48-0) was again the model of efficiency and Jackson (2-44-0) showed slight improvement from last week. Murray (12-48-0, 5-29-0) turned in a middling performance, Vereen (4-14-0, 2-12-0) didn’t fulfill the “revenge narrative” and Daniels (1-14-0) sunk with the rest of the Denver ship. Blount (19-66-1, 2-11-0) found the end zone, Cobb (5-53-0) struggled to get things going and Hurns (5-62-1) corralled yet another score. Wright (1-2-0) was again devoid of fantasy relevance, White was on bye and Hill hasn’t yet played at the time of this writing.

Onto the fallout from week ten!

Buy Low

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  1. Matt Forte, RB CHI – Though his rookie backup his been on fire these past two games (more on that below), it’s not as if Forte was chopped liver when healthy. Throwing out the week he was injured, he was averaging 116 total yards per game with three total scores, functioning as a true every-down running back. I’d expect him to re-assume similar duties sooner rather than later, but what’s more interesting is his free agent status at the conclusion of the season. Should the Bears choose to part ways, I believe Forte will find a fit with a contender desiring running back help, and that he still has enough gas left in the tank to justify buying now.
  2. Stevan Ridley, RB NYJ – With Zac Stacy’s season-ending injury, and Bilal Powell’s seeming inability to get healthy, Ridley is suddenly thrust into the role of Chris Ivory’s backup. And while it’s true Ivory has clearly earned the lion’s share of touches, he’ll cede at least a modicum of work to New York’s RB2 du jour. If Ridley can manage to put some good plays on film, perhaps he’ll garner a look in the free agent class of 2016. For the price of a limp handshake, it’s worth it to see what he can make of his newfound opportunity.
  3. Eric Ebron, TE DET – While I’ve never gone full Safchick-ian with my hate on Detroit’s sophomore tight end, it’s not as if I could’ve been construed as some kind of fan. With that said, the 2014 first round pick has shown marked signs of improvement this season, accruing over five targets per game and parlaying them into a weekly line of 3.9-46-0.4, good for 10.9 PPR points. No, it’s not a game-breaking total, but the upward trajectory is there. Given the dearth of elite ability at the position, I’m always looking to take my shot on a player’s potential, especially if he hasn’t unlocked it just yet.

Sell High

  1. Wes Welker, WR STL – Yes, we were all surprised when Welker not only got on the field, but managed to accumulate six targets, good for second-most on the team. He did some typical Welker things – getting open on short routes and hauling them in for a low YPC average. But as bad as Nick Foles might be, I have a tough time viewing Case Keenum in a better light. Look, I doubt you’re getting anything in return for the veteran, but with more and more players getting hurt every week, it’s at least worth a shot.
  2. Mark Sanchez, QB PHI – See Welker above, except replace receiver with quarterback and short routes with short throws. As we all now know, Sam Bradford is out (at least for a few games), and it’s not as if Sanchez didn’t have fantasy success at the conclusion of last season. Unfortunately, as we’ve all seen so far this year, the 2015 Eagles offense simply isn’t as good as its 2014 counterpart, rendering roughly every player as a disappointment relative to preseason expectations. Nevertheless, it’s worth a shot to see if a league mate is willing to try and ride last season’s lightning.
  3. Charcandrick West, RB KC – I have no qualms with what West has been able to do as Jamaal Charles’ fill-in, just as I have no issues riding him the rest of the way if you’re gunning for a championship. With that said, I don’t believe he’s done anything to lead us to believe he’ll unseat Charles come 2016, meaning his dynasty value is more than likely to free-fall in a hurry. If you can’t use him right now, or are simply trying to maximize transient value, now’s the time to look for buyers.

Buy Highjonathan_stewart2

  1. Jeremy Langford, RB CHI – Picking up where I left off with Forte above, I believe Langford has shown enough to at least make the Bears consider letting their veteran starter walk after the season. He’s piled up 324 yards over the past two weeks, a task that started off simple against the Chargers but increased in difficulty versus the Rams in week ten. He’s a true three-down ball carrier, and has also shown a propensity for mixing in the big plays. Though he’ll likely lose immediate value when Forte returns, the future appears bright.
  2. Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR – Lather up, rinse, and repeat. Stewart has exerted a monopoly on the Carolina backfield, achieving 20+ touches in five consecutive weeks. And though the efficiency hasn’t been as expected (3.9 YPC on the season), and the receptions haven’t been there as they have in years past, J-Stew has been piling up red zone touches and has actually vultured Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert four times over that time period. The Panthers offense has looked nothing short of dynamic, and Stewart is a big part of it – as such he offers a bankable floor, and an RB1 ceiling.
  3. Martavis Bryant, WR PIT – I’m taking the loss on this one. While I didn’t believe Bryant was unskilled, I simply couldn’t stomach his off-season asking price as a low-end WR2 despite limited involvement as a rookie. A subsequent substance abuse related suspension only served to further my beliefs, as I didn’t view Bryant as a trustworthy asset. Perhaps his off-field issue will rear its ugly head again, but when he has played he’s been dynamite in an electric offense. If you can stomach the potential downside, Bryant is a player worth acquiring.

Sell Low

  1. Pierre Garcon, WR WSH – Whatever the reason, it simply hasn’t happened this season for the erstwhile WR1. Garcon has now fallen behind Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, and even rookie Jamison Crowder in the pecking order, and isn’t generating nearly enough looks to be fantasy viable. Even when he had the run of things all to himself while Reed and D-Jax were shelved, he couldn’t get anything going. I’m not saying he’s worth dropping, but at best he’s a reclamation project for 2016 and beyond.
  2. CJ Spiller, RB NO – Essentially the running back version of Garcon above, Spiller has come nowhere close to justifying his new contract. He can barely get on the field, and when he does he hasn’t been anywhere the dynamic product he once was. Whether it’s due to poor blocking, or simply a lack of trust, Spiller isn’t playing nearly enough to warrant a place in a starting lineup. Given the train-wreck nature of the Saints, I don’t love his chances to turn it around anytime soon.
  3. Jordan Cameron, TE MIA – After starting the season with two 60+ yard efforts, Cameron hasn’t eclipsed 34 yards in any of the last seven contests. In doing so he’s only caught 46% of his targets, with a lone touchdown to show for it. Long story short, this isn’t the bounce-back TE1 effort owners were expecting. Moreover, there’s clearly a defined hierarchy amongst the Dolphins pass catchers, and Cameron isn’t anywhere near the top. If not for his name recognition, it’s arguable his numbers should land him on the waiver wire scrap heap. If you can still sell his former year of greatness and pawn him off on a league-mate chasing past glory, you’ll more than likely wind up with a profitable venture.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter