Sunday Six Pack: Week Ten

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We bring you the Sunday Six Pack, an article featuring six of the biggest storylines heading into each and every week of the season. Keeping tabs on these events will keep you prepared and informed throughout the season – just don’t drive within six hours of reading this.

1. The Day Darren McFadden Tried To Live

One more time around might do it. Since week five, i.e. the beginning of the end for now teamless and suspended RB Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden has been the PPR RB11 overall and the PPR RB8 in average FPs per game with 17.88. He has been basically operating as the Cowboys every-down back since Randle left the Cowboys’ week seven game against the Giants and was subsequently released averaging 25.3 carries per game and four targets per game. McFadden has a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the year and his involvement in all aspects of the Cowboys offense mitigates his downside in tougher matchups. This week he gets the Buccaneers’ 15th ranked rushing defense that is giving up an average of 108.4 yards per game and, based on volume in addition the effectiveness that he has shown, he is a high-end RB1. 

For Tampa, Doug Martin struggled last week against the Giants with only 11 carries for 31 yards, and caught just two of four targets for 12 yards, including a lost fumble and a brutal drop. Charles Sims also fumbled, and Martin now has a decent matchup against the Cowboys’ 18th ranked rushing defense that gave up 83 yards to DeMarco Murray and 97 yards to Ryan Mathews last week. Mike Evans was a picture of inefficiency last week, catching only eight of 19 targets, and had some bad drops himself. As the only healthy and reliable receiver on the Buccaneers’ roster right now, he’ll get by on volume and blow up if he can catch the football (a dry game might help too).

 

2. Running Back a Thousand Years Wide

He lives these years that I walk blind. Is he lazy? Is he overweight? Both? It’s hard to put your finger on exactly what’s caused the regression for Packers RB Eddie Lacy, but there’s no doubt it’s happened. Lacy is just the PPR RB51 in terms of average fantasy points per game right now and has been outplayed by James Starks in recent weeks. Starks is now the PPR RB34 for the entire season, and has scored over 24 PPR points in two of his last three games. Now that he has been anointed the starter for this week, he is the better play. For dynasty purposes, however, Starks is a free agent after this year, so I wouldn’t sell low on Lacy. He’s still got plenty of time to regain his form.

Prior to their week nine bye, Joique Bell led the Lions in carries against the Chiefs with nine, followed by Theo Riddick with five and Ameer Abdullah with one. Riddick saw seven targets, with the Lions trailing big for most of the game. If you forced me to play a Lions running back in week ten, I guess I’d pick Riddick, but I wouldn’t feel great about it. More importantly, it might be a good time to see if you can buy low on Abdullah. The likely new staff that will be in place next year might give the explosive back a better chance at relevance.

3. Jeremy Langford Was Not Outshined

[inlinead] It gives me the butterflies. Filling in for the injured Matt Forte, for a minute, it looked like Jeremy Langford was going to get Foxed with Ka’Deem Carey getting the start at RB last week against the Chargers. But Carey checked out after a few plays, and got hurt later in the game, and the Langford show began. He ended up with 18 carries for 72 yards and one touchdown, and three receptions for 70 yards on four targets including a great catch downfield for 31 yards. Now Forte has gotten in some limited practices this week and may return for the Bears’ week ten matchup against the Rams. If Forte does play, the backs may be in a split that limits both of their appeal. If he doesn’t, the Rams have the 13th ranked rushing defense, giving up 104.0 yards per game, which could mitigate some of Langford’s appeal. That being said, his abilities in the passing game would give him a solid PPR RB2 floor.

Since week four, Rams running back Todd Gurley has been the PPR RB3, averaging 21.96 FPs per game. Gurley is an obvious every week RB1 and could be the top overall back for week ten against the Bears 24th ranked rushing defense that is giving up an average of 121.6 yards per game on the ground. His recovery from his ACL injury has been ‘Adrian Peterson-esque’, and he is probably the dynasty RB1 at this point.

4. Black Hole Sons

Won’t you come and wash away the rain. Don’t look now, but the Oakland Raiders are 4-4, in second place in the AFC West, and are scoring points in bunches. The Raiders are up to eighth in the league in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and seventh in points per game at 26.6. Last week against against Pittsburgh, they put up 35 points in a losing effort behind Derek Carr’s 24/44 for 301 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Michael Crabtree has emerged as a serious weapon across from Amari Cooper and is currently the PPR WR18 in average FPs per game at 17.01.   Cooper is not far behind at the PPR WR20 in average FPs per game. Not to forget running back Latavius Murray who checks in as the PPR RB17 in average FPs per game with 14.06. The Raiders offense is exciting and all four of Carr, Crabtree, Cooper and Murray are every week starters at this point.

For the Vikings, rookie WR Stefon Diggs is the PPR WR15 in average FPs per game since week four with 17.4. He’s rendered Mike Wallace essentially moot and is the only pass catching option in this offense that you can start. The Raiders are actually eighth in the league in rushing defense, giving up only an average of 96.9 yards per game. That being said, you are still starting the NFL’s leading rusher Adrian Peterson.

5. Bortles in My Hand

Quench yourself and drink the water that flows beneath his head. Jaguars’ Blake Bortles is currently the QB9 in total points and the QB10 in average points per game, which is light years above where people thought he would be. His value has been buoyed by the excellent receiving tandem of Allen Robinson (PPR WR11 in average FPs per game) and Allen Hurns (PPR WR19 in average FPs per game). Add in the recently healthy Julius Thomas, who is not yet on the same page with Bortles, and the effective TJ Yeldon (PPR RB20 in average FPs per game), and the Jaguars’ offense has a ton of potential. Bortles only has two games under 200 passing yards per game so far and three games over 300 (not to mention one at 298). This week he gets a ridiculous matchup against the Ravens’ 29th-ranked passing defense that is giving up 283.9 yards per game through the air. Assuming Hurns can play, he, Bortles and ARob make a top tier trio for week ten.

The Ravens had their bye week in week nine to plan with life after Steve Smith, who is out for the season after tearing his Achilles tendon. Kamar Aiken steps in to the WR1 role and should see plenty of targets against the Jaguars’ 25th ranked passing defense (263.5 yards per game). Eventually Chris Givens’ role will expand. He may be a bit of a one trick pony, but it’s a good trick and he could provide some vintage Mike Wallace-lite value if he gets an every down role.

6. Spoonmanning

All his friends are skeletons. If you can believe it, Broncos’ Peyton Manning is the QB32 in terms of average FPs per game. He’s actually averaging over two fewer FPs per game than Blaine Gabbert scored last week against Atlanta. Although he has an ostensibly good matchup this week against the Chiefs and their 23rd-ranked passing defense that is giving up an average of 255.9 yards per game, you need to look no further than week five against the Raiders to (under 12 FPs) to see how low of a floor Manning actually has, even in a good matchup. He is no longer an automatic start even in a plus game anymore, and whether you play him largely depends on who your other quarterback is. I’d actually feel better about Kirk Cousins against New Orleans and their 30th-ranked passing defense this week.

Although the Broncos will be without suspended CB Aqib Talib, this is still a tough matchup for Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin. Smith is essentially unstartable other than in leagues where every starting quarterback is startable, and Maclin falls to a low-end WR2. Travis Kelce, who has likely been replaced by Tyler Eifert as the dynasty TE2 (sorry Jimmy Graham), also gets downgraded based on the matchup and his less than optimal useage to just a mid-range TE1.

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