Contrarian Plays: Week Ten

Matt Price

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We avoided the injury bug this week and a few of our picks worked out well. Others… not so much. Let’s take a look at how we did in week nine.

What worked:

Adrian Peterson ran well against the Rams for 125 yards and a touchdown to go with two catches for 18 yards. 21.3 points for our $8400 is not too shabby.

At wide receiver, Allen Hurns paid big dividends. 20.7 points for our $6800, a return of over 3x on our investment.

What didn’t work:

Both Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston failed to perform up to expectations. Both had decent yardage numbers but neither threw a touchdown pass.

Matt Jones once again received the lion-share of the touches (13 to Alfred Morrisfour) but fantasy-wise nothing worked for Washington.

It was Emmanuel Sanders and not Demaryius Thomas who had fantasy success for Denver against the Colts in week nine. It wasn’t a complete bust but five catches for 50 yards definitely isn’t helping us win a GPP.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins failed to play once again and our backup plan of Vernon Davis didn’t see a single target.

Let’s get into Week 10:

QB

Kirk Cousins – $6500

[inlinead]Washington gets a Saints defense this week at home who have given up 11 total touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks the last two weeks and that was at home in the Superdome. Cousins played better against the Patriots than the box score indicates. His receivers let him down all over the place including on his very first pass of the game when Pierre Garcon let a pass bounce off his hands and get picked off. If Cousins and his receivers can get on the same page for week 10, Washington should have success through the air against the Saints.

Peyton Manning – $7700

Manning seems like the perfect GPP quarterback in Week 10. He should be relatively low owned and Denver is a home favorite against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Peyton is still in most fantasy owners’ doghouse but he did manage a decent game against the Colts in week nine so there is a glimmer of hope for his fantasy value the rest of the season. Use the good matchup this week as a reason to give Peyton a shot in Week 10.

RB

Ryan Mathews – $5600

The Eagles are keeping both of their running backs involved in the offense. Mathews has paid off his salary in each of the last two weeks against much tougher defenses than the Dolphins who he sees in Week 10. Miami is giving up 29.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and Mathews can be had for $2300 less with a nearly identical shot at a touchdown. Take the discount, the salary relief, and the low ownership in a GPP.

James Starks – $6000

Another nice stack this week is the Packers defense with Starks. Eddie Lacy has disappointed all season long and has been straight up outplayed by Starks. Now Lacy is suffering from a groin “pull” so expect Starks to be heavily involved again in Week 10 against a weak Detroit defense. Pass catching running backs on home favorites who will likely have a low ownership are exactly the kind we want in our lineups and Starks checks all the boxes.

WR

DeSean Jackson – $6000

One of my favorite tournament stacks this week is the aforementioned Kirk Cousins and his now healthy and fresh-legged WR1. Cousins has played better than his numbers indicate mostly due to his receivers letting him down. If the two can get on the same page then a long touchdown is definitely in the cards against a Saints team giving it up against the pass. New Orleans is currently giving up the seventh most points per game to opposing wideouts.

Brandon LaFell – $6200

Doesn’t it feel like the Patriots really want LaFell to be a heavily involved part of this offense? In week 10 you can get him for $1800 less than both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski while getting a seemingly equal chance at a touchdown against a Giants defense giving up the fourth-most points to opposing wide receivers. He should be lower owned than both of those guys as well making for a more contrarian stack with Tom Brady.

Dez Bryant – $8100

Dez showed us last week he is back and capable of producing WR1 numbers with Brandon Weeden against bad pass defenses. This week they get another one of those when they travel to Tampa Bay. He is certainly a little pricy as the fifth-most expensive receiver but sometimes it’s worth it to pay up to be contrarian. He will save you $600-$800 on the top options and makes for an interesting pivot off of A.J. Green and Julian Edelman as he is likely to be far less owned than either of those two.

TE

Kyle Rudolph – $4700

If there was ever a week to pay up for Gronk it would be this week in a matchup with the hated New York Giants who are giving up the third-most points in the league to opposing tight ends. He may even have a lower ownership than usual if you account for recency bias and him coming off a disappointing game in week nine. If you want to dig deeper though and are looking for a punt play $3300 cheaper than Gronk, then consider Rudolph. He hasn’t been too involved in the game plan but assuming rational coaching that should change this week. Opposing tight ends have been tearing up the Raiders all season long and are currently giving up 19.1 fantasy points per game to the position; the most in the league.

DST

Green Bay – $4900

The Packers are coming back to the friendly confines of Lambeau field after two devastating road losses to Denver and Carolina in back to back weeks. They should have a much easier time of it against the Lions in Week 10. Green Bay will be angry and looking for a win against a hated division rival. Detroit is currently giving up the seventh most points to opposing fantasy defenses. That combined with the projected low ownership makes for a nice play this week.

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matt price