Welcome back to my weekly series; I hope all you readers have been enjoying it so far! Not only for the enjoyment of it because you love to read all things dynasty, but I also hope this series has helped you identify trade targets and how to properly distinguish the appropriate times to buy particular players. Just keep in mind that these articles are based on my own personal values and opinions on specific players; I am not always right when it comes to players, and so if you feel differently about anyone I target in these articles than by all means go with your gut. But in a broader spectrum, whether you agree or disagree with certain players, the overall concept of this article I believe is a skill all the truly great dynasty owners possess and incorporate into part of how they run their teams.
If you read my article last week, I mentioned that the trade deadline of my leagues has passed. Normally I have used the first portion of my weekly series to go over my personal trade activity based on my recommendations. That format is going to have to change a little bit now starting with this one. So instead, I have looked on twitter with the #dynastytrades hashtag to try and find the players I discussed involved in any deals. With that said, let me share with you what I was able to find for the players highlighted in last week’s article. These are not trades I have witnessed personally, so I can only say that these are legitimate trades (or offers made) to the best of my knowledge.
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Trade 1: Eric Ebron and Donte Moncrief for Travis Kelce
– to me, this is a case of Kelce still riding his name and off-season hype value over substance. Don’t get me wrong, Kelce is still my TE3 and I still love his talent. But his name is carrying him over his production a bit in my opinion. Ebron has some real life deficiencies in his game, but receiving is his strength and that is what produces us fantasy points. He’s quietly been showing good progress this season when healthy and gives us some optimism on his future outlook. Add in Moncrief (my highlighted player last week) and I think this is a great return for the owner giving up Kelce.
Trade 2: DeMarco Murray, John Brown, and late 2016 3rd round pick for Matt Jones and Breshad Perriman.
– I don’t understand this trade at all. Jones and Perriman have both been mentions of mine previously and players I really like to buy, but this is buying at a price way too high. The owner who was giving up Murray and Brown really sold low here, and while certain circumstances selling low can be advisable, this is not one of those cases. A few trades like this and you can cripple your team’s overall value quickly.
Trade 3: John Brown for Donte Moncrief
– This is an even swap for me as I really like both of these players. I still think Moncrief has the higher ceiling than Brown does and is also younger, but overall they are quite close for me personally and it’s really tough to decide a clear winner in this trade, as I think both probably have about equal value right now.
Trade 4: Donte Moncrief and late 2016 first round pick for Lamar Miller.
– Lamar Miller has been much better from a fantasy perspective this past month, but I am taking the other side here. I think Moncrief has a little more value than Miller overall, so a first round pick definitely puts it over the top for me, even if it is a late one. The person trading for Miller did preface by saying he was a contender desperate for a running back after losing Le’Veon Bell, so I do understand the logic. I just think he gave up a tad much to acquire Miller.
I was not able to find any trades involving Randall Cobb. This doesn’t surprise me too much, as stud players simply don’t get dealt near as often as lower tiered players. Let’s go ahead and dive into my trade targets for this week!
Demaryius Thomas, DEN (Premier target)
I know what you must be thinking…Of course you would pick a player from your favorite team to highlight, you homer! Admittedly, he is indeed one of my favorite players on my favorite team, but hear me out as I have my reasons that go beyond any biases! I’ve been hearing a lot of chatter surrounding the wide receiver we all know as DT, and I am here to try and debunk all of that for you. This all stemmed from a conversation I had with a friend of mine who also happens to be a fellow dynasty owner in several of my leagues (and one I have much respect for). During this conversation which was focused on trade talk, he made a statement that was a bit shocking to me: Demaryius Thomas is not an elite wide receiver. Whoa! I couldn’t believe what I heard (and disagree for what it’s worth), but he’s not the only one I have heard that was down on DT. This is telling me that people are lowering this guy in their rankings, and I am going to tell you why you should seek out his owner in your league and see if he is one of these people down on Thomas. Send out a feeler offer and find out, because I think anyone thinking he’s no longer an elite wide receiver and lowering his value as such is making a mistake; a mistake you can be capitalizing on.
I just want to start by giving you some statistics on the Denver wide receiver:
– 2014: 111 receptions, 1,619 yards, and 11 touchdowns; making him the WR2 that season.
– 2013: 92 receptions, 1,430 yards, and 14 touchdowns; making him the WR5 that season.
– 2012: 94 receptions, 1,434 yards, and 10 touchdowns. (I wasn’t able to go back that far in my leagues’ history to see where that landed him in the fantasy finishes.)
Needless to say, those are some monster numbers for three straight seasons. But, I can hear the first argument against him now. 2012 was also the year Peyton Manning became a Bronco, so you could argue that he made DT that good. I won’t deny that having one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time would obviously help any wide receiver. However, I have two rebuttals to refute any claim that Peyton made DT the wide receiver he is. Let me start with the first one. In 2011, Demaryius Thomas in his last five games of the season had 25 catches, 448 yards, and three touchdowns. If you were to take these numbers and translate it into a full season of production (remember, this was only his second season in the league, so he only played sparingly for a good portion of that season. He only started five games that year.) So taking those last five games and pacing it out into a full 16 game season, those numbers would become 80 catches for 1,433 yards and just under ten touchdowns. Manning was not a Bronco in 2011, yet Thomas was already breaking out as shown in his sophomore year in the NFL. Manning did not suddenly turn some average wide receiver into a great one; he just happened to become a Bronco at the same time that Thomas was ascending and becoming the wide receiver he is now.
Now let’s go from talking about the past and fast forward to this season. In eight games so far this year, Thomas has 61 catches for 745 yards and one touchdown. So over a 16-game season he is on pace for 122 catches, 1,490 yards, and two touchdowns. Other than the large drop in touchdowns, these numbers are very similar to what he has put up for the past three plus years now. Touchdowns are the most unpredictable stat to rely on from a year-in, year-out basis in my opinion; even though Thomas’ touchdown totals have been pretty steady each season. I would guess that he puts up more than one touchdown the second half of this season and that disparity will even itself out some. There is this perception out there that because the Broncos offense isn’t the juggernaut it has been accustomed to being the past few years that no one is producing at a high level. If you look at the numbers for Thomas, that simply isn’t the case. He still has scored double digit fantasy points in every single game thus far. You know who you can’t say that about? Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, AJ Green, and Randall Cobb. Thomas, even with only having one touchdown so far, is still currently the WR11 in fantasy points. Let me now tie this in to my next argument. Everyone is saying that Manning is having the worst year of his career and his skills have deteriorated now; that he’s finished. If Thomas wasn’t an elite wide receiver and was simply a product of Manning being one of the best, then he should be having a bad season too, right? In fact, I could even argue that Thomas this season has made Manning better and has saved him on several occasions rather than vice versa.
This takes me to my next point in pointing out the faultiness in people suddenly souring on Thomas as a top notch wide receiver, as it correlates with what I mentioned in the above paragraph. I hear this argument against Thomas constantly being used to knock him down in dynasty rankings; and that’s the whole argument that he won’t be as good once Manning retires. Wait a second….Manning is playing awful this year, yet Thomas is still producing WR1 numbers? So how is it then that losing a finished Manning who isn’t good this year to begin with be some sort of gigantic drop in quarterback play once he retires? To me, that whole argument is completely overblown and also contradictory because these same people using the whole Manning retirement argument are the ones saying he’s completely finished. But Andrew, Brock Osweiler isn’t any good. Really? How do we know that, and what can you possibly base that on when he hasn’t played? Often times, I think people want to correlate an unknown into a big negative. The fact is we don’t know at all what Osweiler will be, and trying to just assume he’s awful and then predict others’ downfall on this notion that’s nothing but a complete guess is not good process. Even if he was awful, we have seen wide receivers produce with bad quarterback situations such as DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon a couple seasons ago.
The fact is, Thomas has been one of the best and steady fantasy wide receivers for a few years now, including this season with an awful Manning throwing to him (okay, I’m trolling a bit there, but we all know that’s what plenty of people have been saying about the man known as the sheriff). I scoff at anyone who tries to tell me that this guy isn’t an elite wide receiver; and I think his numbers speak for themselves and proves he’s one of the best. I also think that I have been able to help disprove all the negative rumblings I’ve been hearing surrounding Thomas. But these people are clearly out there, and if one of them owns Thomas and is in your league, that gives you a great opportunity to get one of the truly premier wide receivers at a discount. I especially love buying him if you are contending right now, by pairing your mid-to-late first round pick with a lower talent in the range of Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, or Martavis Bryant. Or if you could swap Sammy Watkins for him, I would do that without hesitation.
Stefon Diggs, MIN (middle target)
Diggs may not completely fit into this series’ mold anymore, but he did finally have a pedestrian week this past week. Perhaps this gives you a small window to buy him now before his value gets even higher. You won’t be buying low exactly, but this is an instance where I recommend buying high now and jumping on before it raises even more. I have mentioned him in my articles before, and I will tell you for me personally that I have been on this guy since college and I think he’s going to end up being a stud. I am a firm believer, and if I turn out to be right, you’re still not going to be paying a ‘stud’ price right now. I like Diggs more than Davante Adams, Martavis Bryant, and John Brown. In fact, he’s right in the mix for me personally with Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, and Donte Moncrief. If I could swap one of those three guys for Diggs and a little extra, I probably would.
Josh Gordon, CLE (deep target)
We all know all the big red flags here, so I am just going to keep this short. It seems like ages ago, but it was only two seasons ago when he was the fantasy WR2 despite missing two games. He’s still only going to be 25 next season, and will be a free agent in 2016, which means that he could get out of the wasteland that is the Browns. Even with all the red flags and suspensions, his upside is still undeniable. Risk is only relevant to the price you pay for him. So though he was considered this huge risk, if you’re giving up a low 2016 2nd round pick or a couple 3rd’s for him (or a player of that value range), that’s a very small risk compared to a massive reward should he happen to get it all figured out. To me it’s worth it.
As always, I really appreciate everyone who takes the time to read my articles, and hope you enjoy them. DLF is all about the readers and its members when it all comes down to it, so our goal as writers should be giving you content that is not only informative, but enjoyable; and I hope my series is both for you.
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- Seven Players to Buy For 2017 - November 24, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Los Angeles Rams - August 26, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Detroit Lions - August 24, 2016
Hey man, just my two cents. You need to dig a little deeper. As a premium member for several years, it feels like everyone has just flooded this website with the same obvious content that any other site will probably suggest as well. That’s not an argument towards what you’re presenting, because it is relevant, but it’s not very deep. I honestly use this website now as a tool that I go to in order to see what you guys are writing, that other guys that aren’t as active in the dynasty community might be buying. This website is better than that, where did all the creative writers go?
I appreciate your response, but you have to realize one thing; we don’t necessarily choose what we write about. For example, I was asked to write this series, and so I am. Not to say I am not enjoying writing this, as I am. But my point is you may be directing your criticism to the wrong person(s).
I understand you may have been assigned this series, and honestly it’s not an argument for the series itself. Nor is it an argument with your writing style, you wrote it well. It’s just the content in my opinion should be deeper. What names are out there that aren’t the “flavor of the week”? I would love to see you dig deeper for potential trade targets than just some of the obvious guys. Because whether you’re right or wrong, your articles effect the market value. And at least that would be talking about guys that every other site isn’t talking about.
I think what Adam is saying is he is asking for a firmer position on guys who may not have broken out yet or it guys where it is still very much left to see just how much value they will have. Whether to trade for them or trade them away, or where they stand in relation to each other. I know the rankings do this, but they don’t come with a big analytical framework like an article does.
Some names that would come to mind for me are people like Charcandrick West, Karlos Williams, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Willie Snead, Khiry Robinson, Tevin Coleman, etc. Guys that could have the potential to fill out into that kind of player around the corner.
It’s a lot harder to predict and riskier to go out on a limb with someone who hasn’t provided a large body of work yet, but it’s the kind of edge that a premium site should hopefully have. Like a “young prospect only” buy/sell/value article. Love the site and the content though, nice article. Keep up the good work.
P.S. also like why some guys who havent been producing might be good trade targets, or why they definitely still aren’t, etc.
Well Adam didn’t a very good way of saying that, lol. Also, you have to keep in mind that with the format I’m only doing one player per tier. And in previous week’s articles I have included players like that.
Whatever man, go back and read it again. I suggested you dig deeper for the not so obvious names. Asking to not just write about the flavor of the week. There are plenty of guys that you could analyze that aren’t just the lowest tier guys as well.
Week 5 I traded for Cobb and a second round draft choice 2016; I gave up Jordon Matthews; DeVante Adams and a 4th round 2016.
Then dropped the Miami Def and pulled off waivers Stefon Diggs ( I read a DLF article )and Charcandrick West. Week 7 I traded Diggs and got Matthews back.
Nicely done! You definitely got the better end of the Cobb deal IMO, the Diggs-Matthews swap is closer; I’d say right now Matthews has more value, but I can see a possibility down the road in another year or two where that’s flipped. Only time will tell!
Matthews has more value than Diggs right now? Diggs is bordering on unattainable in every one of my leagues. The Matthews owners are offering him for lesser and lesser returns as the season goes on.
Values vary depending on owners…so no, not all people value Matthews more. But from my personal experience with owners that is the case. I could be mistaken, but if I recall Matthews is ranked higher than Diggs currently here on DLF. I am not stating that I think Matthews is higher personally, because I like Diggs more.
Offered Diggs and a mid 1st rookie pick for my Amari Cooper. Any thoughts?
Keep Cooper. Diggs is nice and everybody loves him right now but part of that is artificial value modification due to a low-cost player coming on the scene and bursting out. Cooper has graded out to the real talent evaluators and in college to be the real-deal elite, and then proven it facing top corners intent on stopping him as a rookie. Diggs on the other hand is a complimentary player on a team with a guy named Adrian Peterson. Nowhere near the same attention from defenses. Cooper is a guy who you will be able to count on for 10 years and he has that beautiful combination of being high-volume and a serious deep threat. Which is why I’d hold him if I were you.
Recently traded away Gordon and acquired Keenan Allen (1 for 1, after the season ending injury). It’s on a team that is bottom 6 and in no shape to make the playoffs. I’ve been acquiring Gordon where I can because I – like you – think that he is worth a stash for next season. But I felt that the upside on Allen is good enough that even if Gordon hits his previous lofty heights I haven’t lost tooooo much. And if he gets suspended again, then I’ve gained a ton. Thoughts?
Sorry Adam & Yeti… But I’m siding with Andrew on this one. What your asking for is not relevant to this article. It does not matter how good the players he mentioned because it’s all about the Right Price. Not the best sleepers. If he thinks a guy like D. Thomas has lost enough value to target in a trade. He’s not enlightening us on Thomas’ elite status. How far CAN one dig to find a good unknow player who will help a team win down the stretch. Can you name some players your talking about?
I was clarifying someone else’s point and just saying what it would be nice for the site to have, not this specific article or article concept. I also provided names. Looks like you didn’t spend much time reading my one comment before lumping me in with someone else.
See some quotes from my comment:
I began with: “I think what Adam is saying is…”
“I know the rankings do this, but they don’t come with a big analytical framework like an article does”
“Some names that would come to mind for me are…”
“It’s a lot harder to predict and riskier to go out on a limb with someone who hasn’t provided a large body of work yet, but it’s the kind of edge that a premium site should hopefully have.”
“Like a “young prospect only” buy/sell/value article. Love the site and the content though, nice article. Keep up the good work.”
“P.S. also like why some guys who havent been producing might be good trade targets, or why they definitely still aren’t, etc.”
I apologize if I was wrong about your position on this topic. But, if you do not agree with Adam, you sure spent a long time explaining his points in detail. And if you think the names you mentioned “Charcandrick West, Karlos Williams, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Willie Snead, Khiry Robinson, Tevin Coleman, etc. ” are examples of what Adam was talking about, then you might want to spend more time researching than blogging. This conversation began with the request to dig deeper and morphed into wanting different articles, which should be mentioned on a different platform. The writer clearly stated he does not pick the topics without approval.
Secondly, these writers do not have some crystal ball to find unknown/lesser players. They pretty much get their info by the same means we do. I have been a member for years and use this site to gauge where they value players and why. Relying on this site’s information to do the work for you is not a strategy I would ever implement. Every so often a player is mentioned on this site that I failed to discover or research thoroughly, and that’s an added bonus. I have never responded/blogged on this site until today, and only my second time blogging online ever. I simply enjoy researching players on my own and supplement that researched with 4 specific sites.
I find your response to be misplaced, condescending, and incorrect.
1) I do not ask the writers to have a crystal ball to find someone I haven’t found – I said going out on a limb with someone without a long track record is nice.
2) I do not rely on this site’s information to do the work for me as I only include it in the opinions offered on a player, upon which I always make my own decisions. Please see some of my many comments which are filled with informed personal opinions of my own. These are opinions which I gained in a lifetime of playing football from childhood through the division 1 level, something I have only brought up twice because I think I can have opinions in comments without saying that. I mention it now because I find your response so distasteful.
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2015/08/17/kelce-vs-ertz-perception-vs-value/
3) I do not comment on any other sites or forums, though I read others. I am a fan of the work they do here and love the fact that the writers dip down to the comments and exchange opinions with members. This is why I share my opinions, none of which I would consider critical of the writers. See the opinion I provided to a value question above to Shane Manilla. He was hoping someone would give him another opinion and I did that. Is that the only thing he will take into account? Of course not, it is just another perspective to consider.
4) Further on number 3, I believe this robust discourse is the goal of any site such as this and is why there is a comment button. If an author has a number of comments, it likely resonated with people and was a successful article. I also comment because it rarely devolves into this kind of petty bickering.
5) The comment section is a perfect forum for a conversation in which I explain another person’s perspective and then suggest that A) The writer’s article is good, and that B) The concept that other person was suggesting might play better as additional content on the site. An evolving site which is a leader in its field wouldn’t turn down reader feedback such as that, and it is actually helpful to establishing more content.
6) For the record I was not attacking Andrew, his article, his positions, or his responses in the comments. I do though find yours to be very judgemental and coming from a place of perceived superiority. I find that perceived superiority laughable and I guarantee that feeling is misplaced in regards to football as well as intellect. Might seem hard, but apparently I struck a nerve with you so hard that you felt the need to throw shots at me in only your second time “blogging.”
Also just as an fyi, what you have done here would likely be described by the under eighty years-old crowd as “commenting” and not as “blogging.” Maybe in the future you should reserve your rare commenting moment for someone who actually deserves it.
It’s funny how you sent the first condescending remark my way and portray yourself as some victim. Then say you were not “attacking” the writer when I made no such claim. And you can call me old all you want because I apparently misused the blogging term. I am so very sorry if I offended you somehow. Going back & forth with you is simply a waste of time as you obviously know everything and we all know nothing. Maybe you shouldn’t chime in on someone else’s misplaced criticism of a writer and explain what he was trying to say, then claim you did not take the same stance. Your sure had a lot to say for someone who didn’t side with Adam.
