Dynasty Price is Right: Week Nine

Andrew Lightner Posted On November 6, 2015

Before we get started, I’d like to take a second to gloat about my favorite team, the Denver Broncos….what an impressive win that was Sunday night against the Packers! That absolutely ferocious defense sure did make Aaron Rodgers look mortal, didn’t they? (Hey, what’s the point of being a fan if you can’t celebrate your favorite team’s spoils? This is my article, after all, so if you don’t like it then go kick rocks!) Okay okay, I know that you didn’t click on this article to listen to me brag about my favorite team (or tell you to kick rocks for that matter), so let’s just get right down to business then shall we?

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This past week was the final week of trading allowed in my dynasty leagues (well, the vast majority), and while I did make a fair amount of trades prior to the deadline, it wasn’t quite as eventful for me as past years. With that said, I was able to make several trades involving the players I wrote about in the last article. I will start first with my highlighted player from last week, Thomas Rawls. In one league, I traded Theo Riddick and Martavis Bryant for Rawls, Brandon Marshall, and a 2016 2nd round pick. I felt good about this trade when it was made being that I am a contending team, and already have Antonio Brown on my roster as well as Marshawn Lynch. Well, this just shows how quickly things can change in a single weekend of football as now I feel I may have lost out on this deal. I thought that Marshall was a clear upgrade to Bryant for the rest of the season, in which I figured would help solidify my squad to push for the championship. Instead, Le’Veon Bell goes down for the year, which could very well equate to an uptick in Bryant’s targets on a weekly basis for the rest of the season. Not only that, but Ryan Fitzpatrick gets hurt, and his status sounds very much in the air at this point going forward. Unfortunate for this particular trade, but I do believe it wasn’t a bad deal or thought process, just an unlucky outcome/result. Here are the other three trades I was able to make for Rawls:

1) Theo Riddick for Thomas Rawls 2) Gary Barnidge for Thomas Rawls and two 2016 2nd round picks 3) 2016 2nd round pick for Thomas Rawls

I was comfortable with all three of these deals; Riddick is a nice depth RB to have on a team and provides a descent weekly floor, but Rawls has higher upside long term. Barnidge was expendable with the great Rob Gronkowski on my team. The 2016 2nd round pick I gave up is in a league my team is 7-1 in, so it should be a low 2nd round pick.

My other two mentioned trade targets last week were Dorial Green-Beckham and Randall Cobb. I only made one deal for DGB this past week, as I already own him in a bunch of leagues thanks to several buy lows of him earlier in the season. Plus, one of my buddies who happens to also be in about 20 percent of my leagues has a number of DGB shares and I know he is very high on him; higher than I am so his price would be too much for me. The one trade I was able to complete for the rookie Titans wide receiver I gave up two 2016 3rd round picks for him. As for my last mentioned target from my previous article, I was able to make two trades for Cobb. The first trade was exactly what I mentioned I would hypothetically give up for him in last week’s article, TY Hilton. The other deal I made for Randall Cobb I gave up Jordan Matthews and a 2016 first round pick (will be a mid to low first). Some people may scoff a bit at this deal, but personally I thought it was a good trade that now gives me Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Cobb, and Amari Cooper as my wide receiver core for the next several years. I like Matthews, but I don’t see him ever being a dynasty WR1. So in my estimation, the owner who dealt me Cobb will have to hit on that draft pick to make out on that trade. As I mentioned earlier, my trade deadline has come and gone, so I’ll be unable to target the players I mention in my series from here on out. However, that doesn’t mean that all of your trade deadlines have past; and so we’re going to continue on with me giving you names in which you can be targeting in trades and possibly making out with some good deals. After all, the articles we write here on DLF are for our readers. So let me introduce you to my highlighted target of the week.

Donte Moncrief, IND (middle target)

The first two articles of mine both highlighted players have been sleeper running back targets, and while my sleeper target this week is another running back, I wanted to highlight someone at a different position this week as well as a different tier. I know some of you may be thinking, Moncrief hasn’t been a bust so far this year, so will his price really be worth targeting? Well, a lot of that has to do with his owner and how he values him, but in my estimation I think that in general there are likely owners out there who are undervaluing him. The only real way to find this out is to send a feeler offer out there for him and get a gauge on whether his owner in your particular league is one of them.

Moncrief has definitely seen his share of ups and downs in terms of value in his early career. Moncrief was a popular 2nd round rookie draft target by many coming into the league; a guy with lots of upside being coupled with dynasty darling Andrew Luck. While touted as a raw prospect but with very good physical gifts and loads of potential, Moncrief flashed his big play ability here and there in his rookie season, which helped validate to many who believed in his prospects that he was indeed a talent worthy in dynasty. Fast track to this past NFL draft though, and Moncrief’s dynasty value range became the length of the Grand Canyon thanks to the Colts shocking the world by taking a wide receiver in the first round by the name of Phillip Dorsett. Suddenly, Moncrief became an afterthought to many while Dorsett stole his limelight and became the new popular dynasty prospect everyone wanted.

Dorsett wasn’t the only off-season acquisition of the Colts to hurt Moncrief’s value, as Andre Johnson was brought to Indy. All of the sudden Moncrief went from a hot commodity to someone that couldn’t possibly be of any relevance this season with so many mouths to feed and two clear cut options in front of him, on top of a hot rookie prospect to contend with. Obviously these notions were far from the truth, and all who believed in these notions were proven wrong. Okay, but TY is still THE guy in Indianapolis, Andrew. I am not here to claim that Hilton isn’t the top wide receiver to own from the Colts, but I think it’s much closer than people may think. So allow me to dig deeper and show you why I feel this way.

First, lets look at the stats. Hilton only has two more catches on the season than Moncrief does, and Moncrief has two more touchdowns on the season. Yes, Hilton does have over 200 yards more, but Hilton is one of the premier home run threats in all of football at the wide receiver position. He has a long of an 87 yard reception and nine receptions that have gone for 20+ yards, so clearly these stats show that Hilton is an elite deep ball wide receiver, which can help explain the yard discrepancy. Hilton also has 20 more targets on the season than Moncrief, however let’s take a second look at that number. In the two games Matt Hasselbeck started for the injured Luck, he targeted TY ten more times than he did Moncrief. That means in the games that Luck has started, Luck has only targeted Hilton ten more times than Moncrief. All the sudden, that number becomes much closer, considering our focus should be on who Luck favors in the passing game. Looking at these numbers, it seems as though Hilton is more like the 1A and Moncrief the 1B rather than TY being the clear go-to wide receiver for this Colts team.

As I said before, I do agree and think Hilton is the best wide receiver to own in Indy. However, looking at the bigger picture it should be taken notice the progress Moncrief has made from his rookie year to this year. Luck clearly trusts his second year receiver and really likes throwing to him. TY is not dominating the looks from the Colts quarterback, and that should be something we note and realize that Moncrief is clearly on the right track. If Moncrief took a leap forward this year, what’s not to say he doesn’t continue his progression and become even better next year? If he does, it’s conceivable to think that by this time next year No. 10 could be the wide receiver leading the Colts in targets. Even if he doesn’t overtake TY as the number one wide receiver, there’s a good chance that he could at the very least be on par with Hilton. We already have evidence this year that can give us reason to believe that this is a very realistic possibility.

Even though Moncrief has been having a respectable second season, his numbers have dropped a little and lacked in consistency the past couple weeks. This should likely continue this week, because the Colts play the Broncos next and their top notch cornerback duo. On top of that, the Colts have been one of the league’s biggest disappointments on the year. Luck has been underwhelming compared to everyone’s expectations, and the Colts organization is a bit of a mess. They just fired their offensive coordinator, and it’s been made public that the head coach and general manager don’t see eye-to-eye. With all of these factors, Moncrief’s owners may not quite feel optimistic for his future prospects and may also be allowing the Colts negativity in real life affecting their thoughts on Colts’ players in dynasty. I am not one of those people, and I think it would be a mistake if you let it as well. Luck is far too talented of a player, and if I had to put money on it, I would bet that Luck is still a dynasty stud QB in his career. Having one of his top targets for the future is something I would love to have.

I am a believer in Moncrief, and I think there are probably some owners out there who aren’t aligning his value with the progression he has made this season on the field. In fact, I like Moncrief more than fellow wide receivers Martavis Bryant, Jordan Matthews, Brandin Cooks, John Brown, and Davante Adams. I know there are many other people who like some of these players I just mentioned higher than Moncrief and value them more. That only means that you could possibly trade one of these guys and receive more in a trade for Moncrief, something I personally would consider doing. Even if you value these names more and wouldn’t feel comfortable making such a trade, that doesn’t mean you couldn’t aim lower and at least see where Moncrief’s value lies with his fellow owner.

Le’Veon Bell, PIT (premium target)

Obviously Bell is now out for the season with yet another serious injury. I still have him ranked as my RB2 in dynasty even after the injury. Sure, the severity of the injury is concerning especially since he suffered a severe injury last year as well. However, we have seen numerous times that coming back from knee injuries isn’t as daunting as it once was thanks to the ever-growing medical technology and knowledge. Bell is an incredible running back talent, and is still very young. It’s tough to say what to offer up for him because I am sure some of his owners still won’t want to give him up at less than full price because of how good he is and the position he plays. But if you can acquire him at say, 75 percent of his value prior to the injury, I would strongly consider doing it.

Matt Jones, WAS (deep target)

I’ll be the first to admit, when the Redskins drafted this guy I barely knew who he was, and shook my head a bit when I read his name on the draft ticker. But wow, some of the things I have seen him do in his rookie season has me quite impressed. A running back with his size should not be able to make some of the agile moves I have seen him make. I just love the way that he runs, how he not only runs with ferocity and power, but has enough nimbleness to make defenders miss when he needs to. There are some things he needs to work on, but the fact that he has been splitting carries with a guy who has had three straight 1,000 yard seasons in Alfred Morris shows what the Redskins coaching staff thinks of Jones as a player. Morris is a free agent after this season, and considering he’s never had a big paycheck for those three productive seasons he has put together, I would guess he goes to whichever team offers the most money. With a guy like Jones, I would be surprised if Washington is the team that offers him the biggest payday. You should still be able to get this guy at a good price because the Redskins as a whole have been pretty much irrelevant in dynasty (outside of Jordan Reed.) Jones is another one of my favorite running back targets for the future along with Rawls.

That concludes this week’s edition of The Dynasty Price is Right. As always, I hope you enjoyed it and will continue to read the series! Feel free to follow me on twitter, my handle is @alightner10291.

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