Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta

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Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

Todd Gurley, RB STL

Since he was drafted by the Rams with the 10th overall pick earlier this year, fantasy owners have been anxiously awaiting the arrival of Todd Gurley. St. Louis has been cautious with Gurley’s return to action after tearing his ACL, but week four against the Cardinals displayed the coaching staff will no longer be holding him back.

Looking at 4for4.com’s Snap App tool Gurley was 12th overall in percentage of a team’s snaps at the running back position in week four and expectations would see that continue to rise. Gurley really got going in the second half breaking runs of 20, 23, 30 and 52 yards as the Rams pulled the upset in Arizona. That was quite the feat as Chris Wesseling humorously tweeted,

Everyone touted Gurley as a sure-fire pick in rookie drafts this season even with the injury and knowing he would not be ready to contribute right away. After last Sunday’s performance those opinions were seemingly validated as shared below,

The other point from John’s tweet also is a something to remember. The Rams upcoming schedule does not appear daunting with three strong opportunities after the week 6 bye and only really the Ravens in week 11 and an unfortunate trip to Seattle in week 16 as the major roadblocks to fantasy success. I doubt anyone is selling Todd Gurley in fantasy unless the Brinks truck is being backed up for his services so enjoy it if you have him. Oh and if you are a Tre Mason owner, my man Nick Mensio has some parting words,

Duke Johnson, RB CLE

Another rookie running back that broke out in week four was Cleveland’s Duke Johnson. The Browns have continued to increase his role with each week as JJ Zachariason pointed out,

Johnson has also appeared to have cemented his role as the best receiving option out of the backfield.

[inlinead]Last week Isaiah Crowell did catch three passes of his own and had 15 touches to Johnson’s 17 so the workload was pretty evenly split. If the Browns had not acquired Robert Turbin before the start of the season I would likely be higher on Johnson as a solid RB2 for the rest of the season. While Turbin is unlikely to take any receptions away from Duke, he poses as a better inside runner and both he and Crowell are better options at the goal line. Johnson’s value in PPR is clearly higher than in standard where he may not even be flex worthy. It is also looking like Turbin may get his first action this weekend and unfortunately the Browns backfield is developing closer to a three-headed monster situation than a defined workhorse. The schedule is also not very forgiving over the next five weeks and finding weekly value may more difficult to come by.

Jeremy Maclin, WR KC

When Maclin joined the Chiefs this offseason, I doubt you could find one person from a fantasy viewpoint who saw the move as a positive. Maclin was leaving Chip Kelly’s high flying offense for a team that failed to throw a touchdown pass to any wide receiver the previous year. The one thing you could count on though was that Maclin was by far the best wide receiver on the team and only Travis Kelce was even close to being a comparable threat in the passing game. The first two weeks got off to a slow start but in weeks three and four the offense and Jeremy took off. Fantasy analyst Rich Hribar shared some KC trivia as well as valuable usage stats this past week.

Not only did Maclin break the triple digit mark he racked up over 140 yards in each contest while recording his first touchdown of the season. As Hribar displayed quarterback Alex Smith clearly recognizes Jeremy as a top target and nothing should change with that outlook. The only concern I have in regards to Maclin’s fantasy value is based on the conservative nature of the Chiefs and how game flow could easily impact his volume. During the first two weeks of the season Kansas City won or was in a close game seeing Smith attempt 33 and 25 passes. Over the last two weeks the Chiefs found themselves behind quickly forcing Alex to throw 40 and 45 times respectively. The next four opponents do not pose as serious an offensive threat as Green Bay and Cincinnati, likely slowing the offense down and limiting Maclin’s total targets. While easier competition may help convert targets into points, the lack of opportunities should reduce his weekly upside. The words “sell high” come to mind.

Jimmy Graham, TE SEA

I am a numbers guy to the core and have the creativity level of about a three-year old. (I first typed four-year old but realized quickly I was giving myself too much credit.) That is why I enjoy finding stats shared by the multitude of fantasy specialists on my Twitter timeline. Below is one from Graham Barfield that jumped out to me on Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham.

Barfield went on to explain that Graham saw a 68% snap share and a 22% target/route run percentage with the Saints in 2014. So at first glance while Graham is not getting targeted as often he is on the field more. Of course, Seattle is asking him to block on more occasions while playing those additional snaps and they might want to reconsider that path. Looking slightly deeper at the percentages you also have to take into account the Saints are on pace to attempt approximately 150 more passes this season than the Seahawks. The target per route percentage is obviously dependent on the number of passes being doled out so Graham is never going to see the volume he experienced with Drew Brees. All of this was expected coming into the year and after four games Graham is on pace for 700 yards and eight touchdowns. Those are solid numbers but the problem remains that guys like Jason Witten, Gary Barnidge and Charles Clay are all trending better currently. While Graham may still be ranked in dynasty as the third best tight end, his production is much closer to the twelfth guy on the list versus even the second. Rankings are difficult and it would be nice if you could simply lump five guys into one position and throw your hands up. The main point is that Graham’s role in Seattle is not going to pay off high end fantasy dividends any longer. If you can move him for a comparable tight end in regards to fantasy output along with another piece it is time to do so. Bengals Offense My favorite Cincinnati Bengals follow on Twitter is Mr. Joe Goodberry. Joe has been tracking a very interesting trend in regards to the Bengals success and failure against opposing teams.

A common opponent is the AFC North teams and any other team they have played within the previous season. Three of the last four playoff losses were to teams the Bengals played that season and the loss to Houston in 2012 was still a common opponent because they played them twice the previous season. To start the year Andy Dalton has faced only one common opponent in the Baltimore Ravens adding to the hot start he has been on. Upcoming matchups against the Seahawks and Bills defenses are red flags for fantasy owners but both are also uncommon opponents. As a Dalton owner in a number of leagues I am not simply starting him based on this one piece of information, but I am also not looking to bench him either for a streaming option with a better foreseeable matchup.

John Kuhn, FB GB

It is not often that I will take note of a fullback in this space (this may actually be the first time) but the presence of goal line vulture John Kuhn brought out the Twitter hate this past weekend.

Now there is clear sarcasm and humor in these tweets, but it still marks what many fear in Green Bay when the team reaches the one yard line. Kuhn’s stats through four weeks read one carry for one yard and one touchdown. The problem is that touchdown belonged to Eddie Lacy, or so millions of fantasy owners believed. The responses to the one yard plunge made it feel like Kuhn is seizing multiple scoring opportunities every year from Packers running backs so I had to go back and look. The funny thing is that Kuhn has actually scored just one time the previous three years. In 2010 and 2011 he did record four scores each season so owners must just be reacting to his existence as part of the Green Bay offense for the past nine years more than anything. Either way, Kuhn is the embodiment of the struggles and weekly angst NFL players inflict on the fantasy faithful.

Thank you to 4for4.com, Football Outsiders and Football Guys for some of the stats used within this article. All are great resources still available for the average fantasy fan.

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