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Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta Posted On October 31, 2015
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Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.

T.Y. Hilton, WR IND

I had left the below tweet from the Fantasy Douche out of this article last week. After T.Y. Hilton’s performance against New Orleans I really had no choice but to give a hat tip this time around.

After failing to score a touchdown in the first five weeks of the season, Hilton produced three over the most recent two contests. He also ranks fifth in total targets to date instituting the “due theory” (not a viable statistical theory) in regards to his scoring opportunities. His struggles to score can be attributed somewhat to Andrew Luck and the offense in general, but he has remained the top option in the red zone as well. He has more than double the targets within the 20’s of any other player on the Colts and his average of ten targets per game is what all fantasy owners long for. Touchdowns are highly variable, but if a player continues to get the looks and make the catches, scores will normally follow. While week seven was Hilton’s best fantasy output of the season, it came on a day where he caught only four of 14 targets. Previously he had caught at least 50% of targets in every game this year, but thanks to some late game breaks he was able to come through. T.Y. has never been a huge touchdown threat but the sheer volume of looks keeps him in the weekly WR2 category and in your fantasy lineups. Stefon Diggs, WR MIN Welcome to the Stefon Diggs show, NFL enthusiasts.

It has been quite the three game stretch for the rookie receiver starting his career, and almost everyone has taken notice.

The most impressive point is that in each week, Diggs has led the team in targets and all but buried the thought of a Charles Johnson year two breakout. The route running he has displayed is already tops on the team and something Cordarrelle Patterson has struggled with despite his lofty first round selection two seasons ago. It will be interesting to see how defenses begin to approach Diggs now that he is already the top option on the team, and I would expect more attention his way. One limitation to his game is that he has only been targeted on three of fifteen red zone attempts over the last three weeks, making his weekly scoring opportunities somewhat inconsistent. Nonetheless, the arrow is pointing straight up for Stefon and I would mostly be curious where dynasty owners have him ranked. Quickly looking, somewhere between 30 – 35 feels about right: trying not to overreact too much but clearly placing a value on him. Right now I would be completely fine taking him over fellow rookie Nelson Agholor or veteran Golden Tate. At this rate only Amari Cooper looks like the better rookie receiver and if that holds his value will only continue to rise.

Amari Cooper, WR OAK

Speaking of Oakland’s Cooper, Kevin Patra shared a Vine highlighting the rookie’s abilities on the football field from week seven.

I am quite sure I would have blown out my knee attempting a move like that but for Cooper it has been a weekly occurrence. While fellow teammate Michael Crabtree may have slightly more targets than Amari to date, Cooper leads the Raiders receiving corps in receptions, receiving yards, catch percentage and touchdowns. He also leads the league’s receivers in ‘yards after the catch (YAC)’, helping quarterback Derek Carr’s yards per game averages climb substantially from 2014’s disappointing numbers. Like Diggs though, Cooper has suffered from a lack of high value red zone targets; as Rich Hribar illustrated.

Through six games Amari has seen only one of the Carr’s 26 red zone targets while Crabtree has seen the most despite not hauling in any of his six looks. With moves like the one we saw Cooper put on Chargers safety Jimmy Wilson, scoring from 50 yards out may be more of a common occurrence. Of course, touchdowns still drive a lot of fantasy value, and not being incorporated into the team’s red zone game plans has been frustrating to say the least.

Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Below was an interesting combination of pace and comparison regarding Jacksonville’s dynamic second year receiver Allen Robinson.

First impression is that this is a very short but impressive list. He is off to a great start in 2015 and although I do not always like to take small sample sizes and extrapolate larger numbers, the NFL is all about small sample sizes – and Robinson is showing pretty impressive consistency so far. His rookie season stats were nothing to write home about, but he was also dealing with some of the worst quarterback play in the league in Blake Bortles. The Jaguars made it a point in the off-season to improve the offense around Bortles, and it has definitely showed. New weapons and more time in the league have made him a functioning signal caller (even with fantasy relevance). The interceptions and errant throws are still on display, but Robinson has been doing work with what he has been given. His size and speed have him leading the Jaguars in targets, red zone looks, receptions, yards and touchdowns. While teammate Allen Hurns has also been relevant and helping draw attention, Robinson is clearly the best option on the team. Coming out of the bye week things will get much tougher for him and the Jacksonville offense with only a few plus matchups and multiple difficult ones as seen from 4for4.com’s scheduled adjusted matchup hot spots. Sked Still, for me, Allen Robinson sits as the 12th overall receiver in dynasty value just ahead of guys like Sammy Watkins and Calvin Johnson. Jordan Matthews, WR PHI Switching gears to a receiver that has been struggling in 2015, Philadelphia’s Matthews has been gathering critics like a squirrel gathers nuts before the long winter. Below are just a few of the comments that were streaming across my time line recently.

Quick summary reads can’t catch the ball, 106 out of 107, not on board and personal attacks. Boy, that escalated quickly. Matthews’ drops have definitely been the focus, and it has come out that he has been dealing with a hand injury likely contributing to the problem. Jordan’s catch percentage has fallen from 66% in 2014 to 62% this season, which is still about middle of the road. Year-to-date, out of 59 receivers with at least 30 targets, he does rank 33rd in catch rate. Now all targets are not the same as many of Matthews’ targets are closer to the line of scrimmage and not jump balls down the sidelines. His yards per reception have fallen off nearly three yards from last season so he definitely is not capitalizing as much with his opportunities, and that certainly goes for touchdowns as well. Last season he had eight scores, and with the departure of Jeremy Maclin’s ten, you would have thought Matthews was a lock for double digits trips across the goal line. Instead he has only one in the first seven games and that is despite seeing a third of the red zone targets. The offense is clearly not running at the same pace as it was a year ago and the offensive line and running game struggles have only added to the mix. Rookie Nelson Agholor’s absence and lack of other top end receiving talent has also made it difficult for anyone to capitalize in the passing game. At this point Jordan Matthews may not be truly set for a leading role and requires another top option drawing defenders and attention. Unfortunately he is just one of the many second year receivers seeing a decline after contributing huge out of the gates as rookies.

Thank you to 4for4.com, Football Outsiders, Football Guys and NFL Savant for some of the stats used within this article. All are great resources still available for the average fantasy fan and highly recommended.

Luke Wetta
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