As always, let’s take a look at how we did with our picks last week before we get into the players for week eight.
The Amish Rifle, Ryan Fitzpatrick, paid off for us once again with 20.7 points for our $7,100 and nearly 3x value. If it wasn’t for Brandon Marshall dropping an easy touchdown, it would have been an even bigger day.
At running back, Danny Woodhead was huge. He netted 27.6 points and a 4.6x return on our $6,000 investment.
Tedd Ginn Jr. nearly hit 3x value with his 15.2 points for $5,300.
What Didn’t Work
Despite a heroic effort in week six, Landry Jones showed us he still has a lot to learn before he we can count on him as a starter. He netted just 10.36 points against a tough Kansas City defense at home.
Christine Michael did in fact see more work than in previous weeks, but it appears the Cowboys were trolling us all as they gave him just five carries. He looked explosive on his best run of the day, a 13-yard carry where he showed the burst that has made him a dynasty darling for so many years. Perhaps one day he will get his shot, but he didn’t pay off as a DFS play in week seven.
Despite the overall poor play from Landry Jones, he did manage to create a better day for Antonio Brown, who had a nice game with six catches for 124 yards on eight targets. However the touchdown went to Martavis Bryant, so Brown wasn’t quite able to pay off his $8,300 salary.
We were right about Jason Witten having a safe floor, but he didn’t do quite enough for us on his six catches for 73 yards.
Let’s get to the picks for week eight.
Ryan Fitzpatrick – $7,400
I may as well just reserve a spot here for Fitzmagic. His upcoming schedule is just ridiculous; with the Jags, Bills, Texans, Dolphins, Giants, and Titans over the next six games. His price did increase $300 over last week, but as the 16th ranked quarterback in price he offers plenty of upside. Two weeks in a row he has paid dividends. Let’s go for a third.
Jay Cutler – $7,300
For the first time this season the Bears should have a full complement of healthy weapons on offense. Coming out of the bye week they draw the Vikings at home. Minnesota is nothing scary in terms of quarterback fantasy production. 4for4’s fantastic Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) statistic shows us the Vikings are right in the middle at 16th, allowing 16 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If we get a floor of 16 from Cutler this week then we are happy and also elated about the potential ceiling.
[inlinead]The Browns defense is the worst in the league at allowing points to running backs. In fact, they are so bad that they could very well make Chris Johnson a chalk play this week for the first time since playing for the Titans. However, there is more value to be mined in the Cardinals backfield, which now has one of the deepest running back groups in the league. Ellington racked up 49 yards on eight touches last week against Baltimore. This week against the Browns David Johnson could easily see multiple touchdowns as the goal line back, and Ellington should see a decent workload as well. Save the ~$2,000 on rostering one of these two backs over CJ2K.
Ronnie Hillman – $6,100
The Broncos played the Browns in week six before the bye and it was the first time Hillman out snapped (44 to 40) and received more carries (60.6%) than CJ Anderson. Does that shift toward Hillman continue this week against the Packers at home? There is some evidence to suggest it will. Green Bay has been susceptible to outside and over the tackle runs, allowing 5.0 ypc on them. Hillman has made his living on just those kinds of runs, with 38 carries for 217 yards and two touchdowns.
Marvin Jones – $5,400
You might be able to put A.J. Green on this list too as his ownership should be lower than the other elite options at wide receiver this week. Jones offers some nice upside at this price as well, and will certainly be less owned than Green. In two of the last three games, Jones has produced over 90 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers have allowed secondary receivers to rack up points against them this season and Jones provides some nice salary relief to get you to the elite options for the other two WR slots on Fanduel.
Randall Cobb – $7,600
Cobb faces an extremely tough Denver defense this week ,but is coming off a bye which gave his shoulder an opportunity to heal. He should be heavily involved as a hot route option for Aaron Rodgers against a fierce pass rush that will force the quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly. Priced as the WR15, Cobb is a value play who is also likely to have fairly low ownership compared to the options above him.
Eric Decker – $6,400
Oakland has been fairly stout against the run this season and my selection of Ryan Fitzpatrick indicates that I believe the Jets offense will run through the passing game this week. Decker has posted at least 90 yards or a touchdown in every game he has played this season. He offers a discount both on price and ownership level over Marshall who is priced as the WR6 @ $8300 on Fanduel. Decker, meanwhile, is priced as the WR29 and $1900 cheaper than Marshall. That screams value to me for our GPP lineups.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins – $5,200
The second year tight end is back at practice this week for the first time since he injured his shoulder in week two. It comes at a great time for both the Buccaneers and his fantasy value, as receivers Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy are sidelined with injuries of their own. With Mike Evans garnering most of the defensive attention in the passing game and Jameis Winston already favoring his tight ends, ASJ could be in line for a large volume of targets in week eight. Watch the practice and injury reports this week, and if ASJ is playing then consider him for your GPP lineups.
Larry Donnell – $5,100
Just in case ASJ doesn’t make it all the way back for week eight, look towards “The Accountant”. The Giants travel to the Superdome to face the Saints, who are giving up 12.6 points to opposing tight ends. Vegas has this game as one of the highest scoring of the week. All of these things point towards a good week for Donnell.
Atlanta – $4,800
The Falcons are seven point home favorites this week against the Bucs, who have an implied team total of 20 points. The Atlanta offense should be able to force Tampa Bay to throw the ball to keep up with them and that means more opportunities for Winston to throw interceptions and make mistakes.
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