The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I have the opportunity to potentially “buy-low” on Eddie Lacy. Our league has salary caps and the only trade that would make sense numbers-wise would be the following: I give up Frank Gore, Martavis Bryant, Ameer Abdullah and Kelvin Benjamin for Eddie Lacy, Brandon Marshall and a first round pick. Thoughts? – Serge in New Brunswick
I’d do the deal. We’ve seen enough good from packers running back Eddie Lacy over the course of the past two years that I refuse to believe he’s permanently devolved into the hot mess he’s been thus far in 2015. The Packers are entering their bye week at the perfect time for Lacy to get fully healthy, at which point I expect him to return as the team’s RB1. Add in Jets receiver Brandon Marshall, who’s arguably the second best asset in the deal behind Lacy, as well as a future first round pick, and I greatly prefer your side.
- I’m in a 10-team, half-PPR league with no real hope of winning this year. I lost Dez Bryant and went young early with Amari Cooper, Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah. I currently have an offer for either Jonathan Stewart or Knile Davis for Golden Tate. I feel like even though Stewart’s a starter his ceiling is fairly low, and I like the idea that Davis could end up somewhere with a chance to start and exhibit more talent. I’m stacked at receiver so it doesn’t hurt to move Tate. Would you take either and who do you like more to improve my running back situation? – Cody in VA
I wouldn’t do either deal, as I believe Lions receiver Golden Tate is the most valuable asset in the trade, even despite his slow start to the season. However, if you could get another piece on top (think along the lines of a second round pick), I’d pull the trigger if you could secure Panthers ball carrier Jonathan Stewart. After a slow start to the season he looked like a new man against the Seahawks tough defense, even procuring some red zone work en route to a pair of rushing scores. If he can continue to vulture from Cam Newton (odd to write, but true nonetheless), he could definitively return to fringe RB1 territory. As for Knile Davis, I’ll keep it short and sweet – he’s terrible. You can do much, much, MUCH better than the Chiefs inefficient backup.
- I’m starting to get frustrated with Sammy Watkins and was thinking about trading him for Jarvis Landry and a second rounder, but I’m hesitant. My league is PPR and Landry to me is sure points every week while Watkins’ nagging injuries, combined with the Bills overall pass game, is getting to be a headache. I was just wondering your thoughts? Is that enough for Watkins? – Michael in NC
As an owner of both players I can honestly say it would still take a bit more than the current package to pry Bills receiver Sammy Watkins away from me. Yes, Watkins has shown an inability to stay on the field, but he’s also produced well when he’s managed to suit up. It’s true that Dolphins pass catcher Jarvis Landry has been the definition of PPR gold, never falling below 10.9 PPR points in any game this season, while topping 14.7 points in every other contest. While it’s not WR1 output, Landry’s floor isn’t likely to kill your box score on any given week. Nevertheless, John Q. Public still values Watkins approximately 1.5 rounds higher according to the October ADP, so you should be looking for a little bit more to bridge the gap. Perhaps you could add a first round pick to the Landry side, swapping it out with a second rounder on the Watkins side.
- I needed receiver help, and made a trade to acquire Julio Jones, giving up Devin Funchess, Dorial Green-Beckham, first and fourth rounders in 2016, first/third/fifth rounders in 2017 and a third round pick in 2018. Am I off my rocker for making this trade? – Gene in GA
[inlinead]I love the deal for you. The fact is neither Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham is guaranteed to have even half the career upside of the transcendently talented Julio Jones, and neither appears likely to even beginning producing until next season. The 2016 picks obviously won’t pan out until next year at the earliest, and likely later given the marinating time rookies typically require, and the 2017 picks are yet another year out! To put this another way, Jones is currently averaging 22.8 PPR points per game – if he keeps up the pace, he’ll score another 228 points this year, and 364.8 points again in 2016. In other words, the deficit will be pretty close to 600 PPR points for all the 2016/2017 picks before they start producing, and as mentioned above, there are no guarantees for the 2015 rookies with whom you parted. Long story short, you’re getting the best player in the deal for what essentially amounts to lottery tickets that can’t be cashed for years – quality is always better than quantity.
- I have Le’Veon Bell, Chris Ivory, Melvin Gordon, Ronnie Hillman and James Starks as running backs in my keeper league. If I offered Hillman and a first round pick for Eddie Lacy would that be a fair trade, and do you think I even need to try for another RB? – Clint in NE
Starting with the second part of your question, no, I don’t think you need any additional help at the running back position. Le’Veon Bell is far and away the top dynasty ball carrier, and Chris Ivory is flourishing as we knew he could now that the Jets, well, jettisoned Rex Ryan and his unimaginative offensive staff. Melvin Gordon, despite the warts he’s shown thus far this season, remains a promising stash and Ronnie Hillman is a fine RB4. However, the name of the game in dynasty football is acquiring value at a good cost, so I’d absolutely explore making that deal for Lacy. His acquisition would’ve effectively rendered Hillman redundant, so for all intents and purposes you’re really only parting with the mystery first rounder. As mentioned above, I expect Lacy to bounce back and regain his RB1 form – I like the deal for you.
- With the Jamaal Charles injury I was looking to move him. Yes, he is a beast, but now he has two bionic knees and is nearing his age-30 wall. I worked out a deal where I got two first round picks, a second and some throw in players for Charles and Gio Bernard. I still believe that Jeremy Hill will assume the role on that team in the next few years and doubt Bernard will ever stay healthy. I was not going to win the championship and decided to go into rebuilding mode. I also traded Randall Cobb for a first, a second and Brock Osweiler. Did I make a mistake on these trades? Should I have held? – Mike in TX
While it’s impossible to declare a “trade victor” with any sort of certainty, based I’m value I’m not a big fan of either deal. Yes, injured Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles definitively lost value due to his season-ending injury, but ACL tears just aren’t nearly as scary as they used to be. He may be approaching 30, but given his track record of sustained success I believe we should be treating with the type of reverence reserved for Adrian Peterson. I’ve said it before, only mildly tongue-in-cheek, that I think Charles will retire as a “sell high” in dynasty – he keeps producing, but keeps getting devalued for one reason or another. It’s not a bad deal by any stretch, but I’m just a big Charles fan and also believe Bengals runner Gio Bernard has played himself back into the dynasty RB1 conversation – if the picks wind up being early it’ll look a lot better.
As for the second deal, though Packers receiver Randall Cobb has slowed down in recent weeks, he’s still viewed as a WR1 in dynasty. Unless that pick winds up being the 1.01, it’s tough to envision getting a player who will produce as Cobb has. Remember, he’s still only 25 despite this being his fifth season in the league, and he could’ve been part of your rebuilding efforts. Once again, I think it’s going to depend on what you’re able to do with the picks.
- Opinions on Ameer Abdullah seem to be all over the map, with the general consensus being that he has plus talent but non-ideal size and an awful offensive line. I am one of those people on the fence as to whether to hold him or try for a trade. Do you view him as an active shop or hold? Who are players you’d consider moving him for? I’m a fringe playoff team with very little hope of winning it all and a hole at RB after Todd Gurley. – Thomas in NY
I definitely don’t view Ameer Abdullah as a sell, and would honestly rather buy or hold onto him. While it’s true his hype-to-output ratio might be the highest of all the 2015 rookies, there are at least some mitigating factors – as you mentioned he’s running behind a horrible line on an unimaginative offense, and up until last week Matt Stafford looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league (spoiler alert: he’s still not that good – even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile). Of course, it’s not as if the fumbling freshman is blameless – he has ball security issues, and quite frankly despite a tough slate of defenses he hasn’t played overly efficiently. Even with Joique Bell hobbled and Zach Zenner only a bit player (and now out for the year as well), it’s actually been Theo Riddick who’s emerged as the team’s top fantasy runner. However, it’s at this time where it’s again prudent to remember we’re talking about a young, second round rookie – I still believe he possesses the most talent out of any ball carrier on the roster, and he went early in the draft for a reason. If other owners are beginning to let doubt creep in, I’d look to pounce.
- I’m a contending team currently at fourth place. I was offered Jordan Matthews, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and 2016 first and second round picks from the current second-worst team. In return I’d be giving up Mike Evans and my 2016 first. The deal seems fair, should I take it? – Johnny in NC
I’d still rather stand pat. The deal is certainly fair, but for as disappointing as Mike Evans has been this season I think it’s reasonable to assert Eagles pass catcher Jordan Matthews has been even more so. Seemingly swapping out his mitts for a pair of cinder blocks in the off-season, J-Matt simply hasn’t produced like the team’s WR1, again highlighting the potential folly of projecting greatness onto a player in large part due to increased volume. While Sam Bradford hasn’t helped, Matthews just isn’t getting it done.
As mentioned, Evans has been a far cry from his 2014 self as well, but if nothing else we saw him do amazing things as a 21-year old rookie on a terrible Tampa offense. I’d put the chances of him turning it around much higher than Matthews making good on his off-season price point, and still have Evans rated as a dynasty WR1. The potential draft pick swap, along with the addition of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, wouldn’t be enough to sway me here. I’d much rather stand pat, especially if you have designs on continuing to contend.
- I’m sitting at 1-5 in my half-PPR league. There are four teams that make the playoffs and a logjam at 4-2 with four teams, with another one at 6-0. I’m trying to move LeGarrette Blount but haven’t been able to get much more than a second round pick. Is he a hold at this point and I should wait it out a bit longer, or is a second rounder as good as I could hope? – Nathaniel in MN
I think it’s fair market price. I’m as big a fan of LeGarrette Blount as anyone, but actions speak louder than words, and it was Dion Lewis who recently signed a new deal. Given his three-down skill set it’s not hard to imagine him being less likely to get phased out of any contest due to game plan, especially when compared to a two-down thumper like Blount. While a full-PPR setting would be worse for his value, half-PPR still stings Blount a little bit as it relates to his potential ceiling, as he rarely catches the ball. Given this amalgam of circumstance, I wouldn’t have a problem cashing out now, and I don’t see Blount helping your rebuilding strategy overly much. Even if you wait, I just have a tough time seeing you doing any better.
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