When Do You Walk Away From Value?
Dynasty owners seem like vultures soaring over the land looking for value. They will pick through waivers, test out owners to see if they’re panicking about a player who has underachieved, and quickly sell high on a player. While at times, it may be an easy decision to drop or trade a player for an increase in value. However, sometimes the value doesn’t feel right. Something down in your gut tells you not to make the move.
I was in this situation three weeks ago in a dynasty league. While at work, I received an email notification of a trade offer. I usually look forward to these emails, but you never know the offer. Generally it’s an owner trying to flip a Ford for my BMW, so I wasn’t holding my breath. However, it wasn’t just a fair offer, but in my favor!
I give: Melvin Gordon
I get back: Eddie Lacy and James Starks
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My initial reaction was accept the offer. I glanced over at the DLF RB Rankings page to see how others feel about them. Lacy is the RB2 and Gordon is the RB7, which is a solid jump in value. Then I click on the September Dynasty ADP page and see Lacy 27 spots higher in ADP.
After the reality of owning Lacy set in, the negatives started weighing on me. The first thing I worry about with Lacy is his injury history. I need to be honest about something, concussions really scare me. I wrote a paper in graduate school combining many studies on concussions and their effects on athletes. DLF’s own Dr. Scott Peak wrote a very good article on concussions stating “a history of concussions should be a major red flag for dynasty owners.” Therefore, Lacy’s two documented NFL concussions (of course, more may have occurred in college and high school) are like flashing red lights. Ankle injuries seem to also be a theme with Lacy as he’s battled them every year he’s been in the NFL and he had a hamstring issue one season. Playing such an aggressive style at the running back position makes Lacy more prone to injuries and it worries me for his long term future. Can his body last very long taking a beating? At the very least, taking so many hits has to lead to more concussions…again, it scares me. Lastly, I will fully admit this may be too much foresight into his situation. But I am concerned with how long Lacy plays in Green Bay. He is an unrestricted free agent after the 2016 season and I am not sure the Packers will fork over large amounts of money on a running back. Ted Thompson has a theme to re-sign his own players, but running back seems to be replaceable by most NFL standards. Will he deviate from what the NFL says about running backs and sign Lacy long term? Overall, most people are high on Lacy, in a dynasty landscape, because he’s in a high octane offense. Aaron Rodgers keeps defenses honest and sets up many red zone opportunities. However, if you remove him from the GB situation, I doubt he’s regarded as a top three dynasty runner. In fact, Lacy finished as the RB6 in 2014 and the RB7 in 2013 in one of the most ideal offenses during some of the thinnest running back years in fantasy football. Right now, I regard his ranking as overrated and inflated simply due to age.
Melvin Gordon, while being a first round NFL Draft pick, hasn’t exactly put up great stats in the NFL. At the time of this offer, Gordon had a solid game against the Bengals, but still nothing close to the expectations placed on him. After watching the All-22 of Gordon the first couple of weeks, I came away impressed with him and worried about the SD offensive line. They can’t open up holes and really struggle at the point of attack. This could be a real issue for Gordon’s long term prospects but I would assume the Chargers care too much about their valuable assets, Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon, to ignore this area in the off-season. However, I was very impressed with how Gordon ran hard and fought for yardage. He was decisive and displayed good vision to take advantage of whatever hole he could find. It reiterated everything I expected when I scouted him out of Wisconsin. Suffering a groin injury back in 2011, Gordon has been relatively injury free throughout most of his career. Danny Woodhead poses a threat to Gordon in the passing game and for the next two seasons he’s under contract. Woodhead will steal touches, but the 2013 Chargers had enough volume for two running backs.
The other important factor in any deal is to look at the context of how it will affect your team and the structure of the league. This is a 14-team devy dynasty league with .75/1/1.25 PPR and 22 roster spots with another dedicated to a taxi squad for a devy player.
My Team
I also have five devy picks in the upcoming devy draft, which is one round (14 picks) each year. Those picks should be: top 2, top 3, back half of middle, back half of middle and late.
My roster is very young with lots of devy players and picks. Honestly, it’s probably too heavy on the youth side. However, Lacy is almost a full three years older than Gordon and those are valuable at the running back position.
Ultimately, I declined this offer for many reasons. The injury concerns of Lacy and his potential departure from Green Bay. I liked how Gordon has looked on film in San Diego thus far, despite his statistics. Also, Gordon will also align more with my youth movement and keep my championship window open for a longer period of time. Maybe this deal will look bad later on and i’m sure someone will remind me of it. But value isn’t everything and sometimes you need to walk away from it by going with your gut. Mine tells me Gordon will be better than Lacy over the life of their careers.
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Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
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