Contrarian Plays: Week Six

Matt Price


Before we get to the week six recommendations let’s take a look at how we did in week five.


What worked:

At quarterback Philip Rivers paid off nicely with 21.6 points for 2.9x value.

Our tight end  Derek Carrier caught a touchdown pass and scored 10.7 points for 2.4x value.


 What didn’t work:

Jameis Winston actually played a decent game but unfortunately Tampa didn’t need to pass the ball much.

Nothing worked out at running back or wide receiver, largely because of two players who didn’t end up taking the field. We’ll do better in week 6.

The streak of tight ends to put up big numbers against Oakland, was ended by Owen Daniels. He gave us a giant goose egg.

[inlinead]One thing you can use to your advantage in GPPs is recency bias, which is a term generally used when discussing how the public can perceive a player to be better or worse than they actually might be based on recent performance. Another version would be how much a player is in the collective consciousness of the masses. When a player was on bye the previous week they haven’t been thought about much in two weeks because that is the last time they played a game.  Some other bye week bonuses are an extra week to prepare for the next matchup and an extra week for injured players to heal.  This week you’ll notice several of our selections are coming off a bye.

Let’s get to the picks for week six.



Ryan Fitzpatrick – $6900

Fitzpatrick has quietly put up decent fantasy numbers in 2015. Coming out of the bye the Jets draw a Washington defense exposed by the Falcons in week five. Fitzpatrick has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four out of five games this season and the Jets will need to employ a pass heavy game plan to get the win against Washington. To me this adds up to a QB that will certainly get at least 13.8 points to pay off his salary.

Teddy Bridgewater – $6400

The VIkings are another team coming off a bye week. Bridgewater has been disappointing thus far in 2015 but the extra week of preparation should help when Kansas City comes to Minneapolis this weekend. It should help that the Chiefs are currently trotting out a defense allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. The public will almost certainly not be on Bridgewater so he offers a nice blend of matchup-based upside and low ownership in week six.



Lamar Miller – $6400

The Dolphins have been terrible this season. There is, however, reason for optimism coming out of the bye week. With a new head coach and reportedly a new offensive philosophy, there could be good things in store for Miller. The lead back for the Dolphins has received double-digit carries in only two out of four games this season but should see an increased workload going forward.

Duke Johnson – $5900

He hasn’t been getting a huge number of carries, but Johnson has caught 21 passes for 172 yards and a touchdown over the last three weeks on 25 targets. Any player receiving that kind of volume at this low of a price is someone we are interested in for our lineups. The Browns get perhaps the best defense in the league at home when the Broncos come to to town in week six. Johnson should be heavily involved in the game plan as Denver has given up 43 receptions this season to opposing running backs which is  the second most in the NFL.



Jamison Crowder – $5900

The Jets at home coming off a bye is an extremely tough draw for the Washington offense. DeSean Jackson could be back this week but that could actually be a good thing for Crowder because of the weaker coverage he will see. With Darrelle Revis on Jackson and Antonio Cromartie likely covering Pierre Garcon, Crowder should have plenty of room to run free underneath in three receiver sets. Kirk Cousins seems to have chemistry with Crowder similar to the way Ryan Tannehill has chemistry with Jarvis Landry.

Anquan Boldin – $6500

The Niners are not a good team right now but Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin found something last Sunday night against the Giants when they connected eight times for 107 yards and a touchdown. This week they get the Ravens at home. Baltimore is allowing the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through six weeks and lost safety Will Allen to injury last week which further weakens the secondary. Boldin has received 35.4% of the red zone targets for the Niners so look for him to have a good shot at a touchdown in week six

T.Y. Hilton – $7400

Keep an eye on the injury reports to make sure Andrew Luck is playing but even if he isn’t, Hilton could still be a nice contrarian play against the Patriots. This will be a revenge game of sorts for New England and the Colts are likely to be playing from behind for most of the game. That gives us a positive game script for the passing game no matter who the quarterback is. If it’s Matt Hasselbeck it means even lower ownership for Hilton.



Crockett Gillmore – $4900

It seems like forever ago that Gillmore caught five passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders in week two but he is on track to return in week six. Make sure to check the injury reports on Sunday morning, but if he plays, Gillmore is a nice budget option at tight end against a Niners team allowing the eighth-most fantasy points in the league to the tight end position.



Minnesota Vikings – $4500

The field will be on defenses like the Jets and the Broncos and for good reason. The Vikings offer an interesting alternative if you have chalk plays elsewhere and need to add some uniqueness to your lineup at defense. They are coming off a bye week and get a Jamaal Charles-less Kansas City at home. Last week against the Bears (THE BEARS!), Kansas City recorded just two first downs after Charles went down to a season-ending knee injury. The Vikings are in a great spot this weekend and cost significantly less than the more popular options.


matt price