Burning Questions

Jeff Miller

 

burning

I was sitting in my office yesterday evening watching an episode of @midnight when, as I’ve been known to do 14 or 15 times a week, I decided I needed some ice cream. A few minutes later, I was back in my chair with a pint of Häagen-Dazs strawberry.

Eating ice cream is as close as I have to religion. I would trade my entire family for a half gallon of high quality Dulce de leche. But even my love of frozen dairy treats has to be tempered, lest I add any more padding to my already embarrassingly prodigious waist. So I stopped at half the container, squirrelling away the rest for future visit to nirvana.

When I woke up this morning around 7:30, it was like any other day. I got out of bed, gulped a glass of water, put in some eye drops, and made a quick trip to the water closet before waking up my daughter for school. Once she was functional, I plotted a course for the kitchen to do some lunch packing, completely unaware of the horror to which I was about to bear witness.

Needing a few things from the fridge, I opened the left door, then the right, collecting mayo, lettuce and grilled chicken along the way. But when I went to grab the container of pineapple off the top shelf, I saw something that made me instantly nauseous.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

I had put the ice cream in the fridge.

Tears flowing freely, I considered leaving my wife a note and walking out the door forever, ashamed at what I had done and who I had become. What sort of man wastes half a pint of Häagen-Dazs? Certainly not one with any sense of pride or self worth. I felt lower than dirt, less than human. Perhaps, for a few moments, I was both.

The worst part? What I had done, what I felt, it was nothing in comparison to turning down an offer of Devonta Freeman for my second round pick last August.

The Falcons’ sophomore running back was one of the toughest calls I had to make this past week while revamping the ol’ rankings, and not just because of my Freeman induced HDYTTDDPTSD (how did you turn that deal down post-traumatic stress disorder). His out of nowhere dominance has me scratching my head. Or maybe it’s lice? Either way, ranking him, and others, was difficult. Let’s talk it out.

What position was the toughest to rank?

Running back is an impossible disaster. After Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, it is a mess of epic proportions. Eddie Lacy hasn’t done much to deserve being third, but there he sits ahead of the injured or ineffective (or both) Jeremy Hill, C.J.Anderson, Carlos Hyde, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles.

[inlinead]On top of all that, we have two no0bs crashing the party in a significant way. Both Freeman and Dion Lewis have been nothing short of mind boggling. Their modest preseason expectations have been blown up with the force of a dozen nuclear explosions. It is all so overwhelming, I still haven’t fully come to grips with what’s going on.

In reaction to the insanity, I determined now is a prudent time to value steady, consistent production more than ever. When you look at my top-10, only Hyde and Freeman are speculative type players. All the other names are safe bets for solid output. Those guys are boring, though. The wild cards are where the fun is.

As I wrote a month back, Hyde looks sensational, even if the numbers aren’t there. Because of the 49ers lack of direction, I don’t like having him in my top-five, but I don’t really like where I have any backs between three and 30. It was with that thought I rolled the dice and gambled on upside.

For Freeman’s part, eighth could end up being astronomically low or ridiculously high. After watching him Thursday night, it is abundantly clear this is not the same guy I watched cut-ups of during the 2014 draft process. Despite that, I can’t get all the way on board. As good as Freeman has been, both in terms of numbers and the eye test, he is still producing at an unsustainable rate. Because of that, I am finding it difficult to objectively judge what we really have in the youngster. So I sort of straddled the fence, sticking him in my top-10, but not over-committing.

Lewis, who also passes the eyeball test with flying colors, is the other hot topic. The reason I have him conservatively ranked at 16 comes down to his size, head coach and lack of rushing attempts. It is pretty rare for a receiving back to consistently put up the numbers needed to be included in the top-10 of dynasty rankings. We’ve seen it from Darren Sproles and Danny Woodhead, but never for more than a season or two at a time. At some point, the offensive coordinator changes, the player moves to a different franchise or circumstances change in any one of a million ways, putting their usage at risk.

I am open to Lewis being a transcendent talent who bucks the trend, but guys like him are more dependent on situation than a more traditional back. I need something beyond a month of evidence to convince me he’s worthy of a higher standing.

What players are you furthest off the consensus on and why?

Mark Ingram – I have him sixth, while the composite puts him at 16. As I said above, due to the current volatility at RB, I valued consistent production a bit more than in the past. Few have been as reliable as Ingram the last two seasons.

Josh Gordon – My rank of 23 puts him at least 12 ahead of every other ranker and some 21 spots above the composite. For all the reasons Nick Whalen listed in this excellent read from back in August, I am a believer in Gordon as a priority target.

Teddy Bridgewater – I haven’t seen nearly enough from Teddy to justify him being the eighth QB in our rankings. He checks down far too much and lacks the arm strength I look for in a mid-range QB1. I put him at 18 without regret.

Ameer Abdullah – Aside from a couple nifty plays Week 1, what has AA done to impress you? He has ceded pass game work to Theo Riddick, doesn’t move the chains consistently, and, just as in college, the Lions’ rookie can’t hang on to the ball. I know Detroit is a mess, but Abdullah has been every bit a part of the problem as anybody not named Matt Stafford. AA has the dynamic ability to be much more, but I’d like to see some of it before I move him off 22 and closer to the consensus of 13th.

Which players have rankings you are the most uncomfortable with?

Carlos Hyde – I talked about it earlier, but it bears repeating: I have no idea how I have him fourth, but I also have no idea who I’d move ahead of him.

Tyrod Taylor – Even though my ranking is right around most others who’ve updated recently, I feel like 20 is too low for Taylor. With only a handful of starts under his belt, I’d rather be a bit conservative, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he is in the top 12 two months from now.

Antonio Gates – Sitting all the way down at 19, Gates could pull a Tony Gonzalez and make all of us look silly. No single player in the NFL uses their body as well as he does; Gates is a master at shielding defenders at the point of the catch. And even though he’s lost a couple steps, the Chargers’ all-time great flat out knows how to get open. I’m convinced Gates will be a top-five tight end for as long as he plays. The only question is when he will walk away and into Canton.

[/am4show]

jeff miller