Raise your hand if you used our Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert stack last week en route to a combined 53.04 points, crushing value. Every week I have to remind myself that this is not an exact science. There are going to be stacks which don’t work out the way we want them to. What’s important is reexamining the process. Did I jump on a player who had a poor matchup just to be contrarian? Did a receiver have a matchup which looked good when only examining the opponent’s previous fantasy output and not how the cornerback most likely to line up across from him would truly match up? Did the players just underperform? All of these are questions I ask myself when a week ends poorly.
These aren’t cash lineups. A vast majority of the time these are not going to luck us into big money. If you went with Dalton and Eifert this week and played seven other players who performed well, maybe you won a stack of cash. I sure hope so.
Dalton and Eifert were great last week. The other recommendations didn’t do as hot. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald missed value by almost 15 points. Joe Flacco performed well, scoring 24.6 points, but Darren Waller only caught one pass for a single yard. Not even using the more popular choice of Kamar Aiken would have made this stack make value. Granted, we knew Waller was a risky play, but I expected at least 10 points out of him.
This week I’m looking to capitalize on some strong matchups with underpriced players. Remember, these stacks are recommended for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments and won’t necessarily be safe enough to play in cash lineups.
Tom Brady, QB NE
Julian Edelman, WR NE
Danny Amendola, WR NE
If you’re surprised to see Rob Gronkowski ($8,200) left out of this stack, so am I. It’s hard to not play him in a game against the hated Colts, but I think Edelman ($7,900) and Amendola ($4,800) have slightly more advantageous matchups than Gronkowski. Brady ($9,000) has a bone to pick with Indianapolis and is sure to light up the scoreboard.
When I looked at this game, Edelman was an obvious choice at receiver. It doesn’t matter who he’s matched up against; he is going to get targets and convert them. Amendola didn’t initially spark my interest. However, he will be going against Darius Butler for much of the game. Butler is giving up nearly half a fantasy point per route run against him. If this holds true this week, Amendola will only need to run 31 routes to meet value. I like those odds. I will also work Gronkowski into different variations of this stack, but I expect this group to be the one most likely to pay dividends.
Andy Dalton, QB CIN
AJ Green, WR CIN
[inlinead]At this point, Dalton ($7,600) lives in the Best Value section. He is the second highest scoring quarterback in points per game behind Brady, and, somehow, he has 13 other quarterbacks priced higher than him this week. I just don’t get it. I’m happy to keep playing him, as long as FanDuel keeps his price low. It allows for so much lineup flexibility. This week, Green ($8,100) will see Stephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby and Nickell Robey lined up against him, none of whom can match up against his size/speed combination. This is a must play week for Green.
The previously referenced Eifert ($6,000) deserves a mention, as well, since Buffalo has given up the tenth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. This could be a day where Dalton ends up throwing a pair of touchdown passes to both Green and Eifert. Play all three of them or Dalton paired with either without hesitation.
Honorable Mention: Joe Flacco ($7,800) and Steve Smith, Sr. ($6,700)
Stack of the Weak
Eddie Lacy, RB GB
I’ve suggested pairing running backs with defenses in weeks prior, but this is without a doubt the best combination of these two positions to make its way into this series. Lacy ($7,300) has hit a bit of a rough patch and hasn’t reached the endzone since week 1. This has moved him down to the tenth highest priced running back this week. San Diego’s defense is second worst against opposing running backs. This is a beautiful combination.
Green Bay’s defense ($4,700) has notched the second most sacks on the year, while San Diego’s offensive line is tied for the seventh most sacks surrendered. Green Bay’s defense is also second in interceptions with San Diego tied for the ninth most thrown. With the Packers boasting a 10 point home field advantage this week, it should lead to a lot of opportunities for sacks and interceptions while Lacy runs out the clock.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
Mike Wallace, WR MIN
If you look at the fantasy points given up by defenses, this looks like the perfect stack. Kansas City’s defense is worst against quarterbacks and wide receivers, but this pairing just won’t cut it. Wallace ($5,400) is yet to eclipse the 100 yards receiving mark in any game this year and only has one touchdown reception to show for his work. Bridgewater ($6,600) is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game and accounts for only three total touchdowns.
This could be a contrarian play, but I expect it to wind up a fairly popular stack. There is a chance Bridgewater finally puts together a respectable game, but I wouldn’t want to trust Wallace anyway. There are far better quarterback and receiver options available. We want upside with these stacks, and I don’t see this stack being rewarding enough for the roster spots.