The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On October 15, 2015

dlfmailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

In my 16-team league, I have the second waiver pick and someone just dropped Colin Kaepernick. Is it worth it to try and pick him up and hope he can turn it around? I am weak at the position, as I have Joe Flacco, Teddy Bridgewater and Nick Foles. The quarterback spot has been killing me all year (I never seem to start the right one). – Matt in MA

I have to believe you can aim higher at the position, even in a 16-team setting. Though it’s true the trio of Joe Flacco, Nick Foles and Teddy Bridgewater haven’t exactly lit the world on fire (they’re 20^th, 33^rd and 35^th respectively in points per game), Colin Kaepernick (28^th in points per game) is essentially bottom of the barrel as well. In other words, you’d be hoping his week five performance against a middling Giants defense will somehow become the norm instead of the exception.

Continuing, though I believe every starting quarterback should be owned in a 16-team league, you definitely don’t want to devote four slots to the position. As we all know, roster spots are a form of currency as well, and you’d be essentially wasting three of them on weekly backups. This effectively curbs your upside at the bottom of your roster.

I suppose you could drop Foles, who has looked positively dreadful outside of a week four outburst against the Cardinals and bank on Kaepernick, Flacco and Bridgewater turning it around. Personally though, I wouldn’t get my hopes up. If there’s more upside at any of the more important positions, I’d advise you to use your waiver priority there.

I’ve started the season 0-4, maybe 0-5 by the time you answer this. I lost two games by two points and another by five, but had the points to win all of them on my bench. I just had some bad luck in picking starters. My problem now is that I might already be out of the playoff race being three games behind multiple teams for 6th place. I don’t own my own first round pick for 2016 and I feel that I have a solid team. Which direction should I go: make whatever trades I can to try to get back into this, or start trading some of the below talent and call it a year? – Paul in Vancouver

[inlinead]Fantasy football is as fickle as they come. The fact is scoring a lot of points isn’t necessarily an indicator of success, as unfair as that may seem. With that said, despite your current record it doesn’t appear as if your team is a bottom basement type – as such, I think the best course of action is to stay the course and see if things turn around. I wouldn’t actively be making any win-now or rebuilding moves, because it doesn’t sound like you need to diverge in any sort of drastic manner. In a worst-case scenario you can always reevaluate in a few weeks, but even if you don’t make it to the show this year, it seems like if things break better you’ll be back next season.

Who are some players you would suggest to buy low on? Players who come to my mind are Brandin Cooks, Carlos Hyde, Matt Jones, Phillip Dorsett and Jaelen Strong (although Thursday night might have ruined that). Is Donte Moncrief a player to buy now because he could become a top-10 receiver? Is there any player worth buying high because their seemingly high value will only go up? – Mark in Mars

I’ll start first with the bread in your question sandwich. For those who don’t know, in addition to the Mailbag I write a weekly Tuesday Transactions column, where I evaluate 12 moves each owner should look to make. Not only does this include your standard “buy low” and “sell high” types, but it also goes the non-conventional route by suggesting candidates to “buy high” and “sell low” – the operative theory here is prices can always go even higher and lower than the current perception. To see this week’s thoughts, click here.

As for Colts receiver Donte Moncrief, I actually view him as a hold right now. He had some good moments early in the season, but has slowed down with Matt Hasselbeck under center while Andre Johnson heated back up last week. I still view him as a strong long-term asset, but TY Hilton is a great receiver, and Phillip Dorsett is also likely to get better. While I hate sitting on the fence here, I just don’t have a strong opinion on the guy – I wouldn’t go out of my way to overpay for him, but if you can get him for a reasonable price (a first round pick in the likely 1.06-1.09 range) I’d seek to do so.

I’m in year two of a semi-rebuild (let’s call it a reload) and I’m debating a trade for Sammy Watkins. I’m a big believer of talent trumps situation (I find that Amari Cooper is validating that point with his success right off the bat in the Black Hole) so I feel that I put less weight on his lack of a quarterback situation and run-heavy offense than the rest of the league when evaluating him. Due to Watkins’ early season injury and ineffectiveness, I feel that now would be the perfect time to strike, and am contemplating offering DeVante Parker and a 2016 first. Do you think this is offering too little? Should I switch out Parker for Kevin White or even Jarvis Landry (team in question is in “win-now” mode)? – Thomas in NY

Perhaps the most relevant detail in the scenario above is that Sammy Watkins definitely represents a “buy low” target at the current moment in time. I can certainly understand why highly invested owners are frustrated with Watkins’ returns to date and perhaps that frustration is boiling over enough such that they’re willing to sell a bit low. With that said, if the Watkins owner is a win-now team, I have a tough time seeing them being terribly interested in a package involving rookies and picks.

Dolphins receiver Jarvis Landry, however, could certainly interest your prospective trade partner. Effectively the opposite of Watkins, Landry is all steak and no sizzle, but he gets it done on a weekly basis. At this point Landry and a future first rounder might actually be a little on the high side, especially if the goal here is to buy low – instead see if you can sell Landry and a first for Watkins and a second. This would fit your cost-cutting venture better, while also helping out both teams.

In a dynasty auction league, I’ve been offered Mike Evans at $12 and Jeremy Hill at $14 for Julio Jones at $36. Both of our teams are competitive. Should I take the trade or ride out Julio a little longer? – Dave in MI

I only speak one language, so perhaps you’ll want to consult a linguist here because I want to say “NO!” as many ways as humanly possible. To me, Falcons receiver Julio Jones is the most valuable asset in dynasty football right now, combining elite talent (average weekly line of 8.6/109/0.8) with age (26) and a high-octane offense. Even with two down weeks he’s still the overall PPR WR1, just ahead of the revitalized Larry Fitzgerald and surging DeAndre Hopkins. Long story short, he’s done everything we’ve expected and then some.

Though Mike Evans and Jeremy Hill had fantastic rookie seasons, they simply haven’t backed it up thus far in 2015. At the current moment in time they have 81.4 PPR points combined, which is only 67% of what Jones has by himself. Evans has the injury excuse, if nothing else, but he’s been incredibly inefficient since returning. Hill, for his part, has been soundly outplayed by backfield mate Gio Bernard, and has scored a whopping 59% of his points from touchdowns – I expect him to get better, but also expect the scoring binge to fall off.

You mentioned you’re contending, so I simply just can’t sign off on this move. Jones is the better player right now, and will probably be better for many years to come. The difference in salary is dwarfed by the difference in skill and fantasy scoring ability – this bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I am looking to acquire Todd Gurley. I am currently 3-2, and have Le’Veon Bell, Tyler Eifert, Mike Evans and DeVante Parker that I’m keeping. The guy I’m trading with is 1-4 and his notable players are Todd Gurley, Martellus Bennett and Keenan Allen. His team has consistently been bottom-four of our 14-man league the past three years. I’ve offered Todd Gurley and his 3rd round pick for Brandin Cooks, Martavis Bryant, Arian Foster, and his choice of Matt Jones or David Johnson. So far, he has agreed but hasn’t decided which rookie running back to take. How does this trade look and which rookie running back stands to make me lose more if traded? – Bryant in WI

I like it a lot. I know the sample size is beyond tiny, but I’m nearly ready to regard Rams running back Todd Gurley in the same way I spoke of Julio Jones above. Quite simply his talent explodes off the screen the way Gurley explodes through (and around) would-be tacklers, and given the current state of dynasty running backs (essentially Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy and then everyone else fighting for scraps) that’s enough for him to rise to the top echelon.

It’s not as if you’re giving up scraps, but each of the players with whom you’d be parting have red flags – Brandin Cooks doesn’t appear to be the surefire WR1 many though, Martavis Bryant runs the risk of smoking himself out of the league and Arian Foster defines the phrase “when, not if,” as it relates to injuries. Both Matt Jones and David Johnson appear promising, but are nowhere near Gurley’s class.

As to which of the two you should ship off, I’d lean toward Johnson. His rate of touchdown scoring is impressive, but he’s firmly behind Chris Johnson, and Andre Ellington recently returned and has been dynamite when healthy this season. Matt Jones has startlingly already procured the lion’s share of the touches over Alfred Morris in Washington, and could very well be the unquestioned lead dog as soon as next year. Either way though, I’d give up either if it got the deal done – there’s nothing embarrassing about being a “Gurley Man.”

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.