Contrarian Plays: Week Five
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Before we get into week five, let’s take a look what worked and what didn’t in week four.
What worked
With an ownership percentage under two percent, Philip Rivers and his 358 passing yards and three touchdowns won us some cash in week four.
Our running back picks both paid off. Jeremy Hill had three touchdowns and 24 FanDuel points for only $6700. He was also under one percent owned so if you started him and Rivers you were well on your way to cashing in GPPs. Danny Woodhead didn’t get into the end zone for us but he did pay off for 15.8 points at under 4% ownership for $6100.
What didn’t work
Derek Carr’s ownership percentage was much higher than expected and ended up being closer to chalk than contrarian. Either way, while he did throw for two touchdowns, his 14.84 points on Fanduel was pretty uninspiring.
Rishard Matthews cooled off against the Jets and only had one reception for 16 yards on just three targets. Likewise on just three targets, Phillip Dorsett only had two catches for seven yards. In week three Mike Evans was the target hog but in week four that pendulum swung to Vincent Jackson. Josh Norman is officially a matchup to avoid for our wide receivers as he held Evans to just three catches for 32 yards on eight targets.
At tight end, Kyle Rudolph was one of the most disappointing selections of the week. He got us just two catches for seven yards on four targets.
What I learned from picking the San Diego Chargers for our contrarian defense is that we should be starting every offensive player playing against the San Diego Chargers. That defense is a mess as evidenced by allowing Josh McCown to throw for 356 yards against them at home.
Remember that the purpose of this article isn’t to have you use every single pick in your lineup. It’s to give you options at each position that add some uniqueness to your lineups. If they hit then you get great production from a player that is low owned. That’s important in GPP tournaments where having players that produce and have a low ownership percentage is key to taking home the big prize. In most cases the picks in this column should not be used in cash games.
Let’s get into the picks for week 5.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston – $6,400
Coming off a four interception performance against the Panthers, Winston will be one of the lowest owned quarterbacks for week five. Jacksonville’s pass defense allowed 282 yards and a touchdown to a 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck so there is a good chance that Winston rebounds with a solid outing. The Jaguars run defense has played well in 2015. In fact, they have yet to give up a 100 yard game to any running back through four weeks. Doug Martin is unlikely to see much running room which should force the Bucs to throw the ball in this game. Positive gamescript at home points to the potential for Winston to pay off his rock bottom salary in week five.
Philip Rivers – $7,500
Rivers’ price increased by $100 from week four to week five but we are still going back to the well with him priced as the 13th most expensive QB on Fanduel. The Steelers travel all the way across the country for this Monday night game in San Diego. Even with Michael Vick at quarterback the Steelers are a high powered offense that should for the Chargers to throw to keep up with them. Neither defensive squad is very good and the Vegas line puts this as the 4th highest scoring game of the week. Lastly, Antonio Gates returns to the lineup after serving a four game suspension. He should inject some life into the red zone offense in particular and has a good matchup against the Steelers’ linebackers. Look for the Chargers to score three to four touchdowns in week five with Rivers a good bet for two to three passing touchdowns.
Running Back
C.J. Spiller – $5,500
[inlinead]Last Sunday night Spiller showed us what he can still do when put in the right situation when he took a short pass 80 yards for the game winning touchdown in overtime. Clearly he is healthy now and should be a bigger part of the Saints game plan going forward. At just $5500 on Fanduel he is the 47th most expensive running back and $2500 cheaper than Mark Ingram. The Saints travel to Philadelphia in week five to play a team that gave up six receptions for 53 yards to Chris Thompson who could be describes as a “poor man’s” Spiller with a similar skillset. Save some cash and add some uniqueness to your lineup with Spiller.
Giovani Bernard – $6,600
While Jeremy Hill got three touchdowns in week four, Bernard still out touched him 13 – 9, had a better yards per carry average, a longer single run, and a touchdown of his own (nearly had a second). Despite that Hill still costs $200 more. In week five the Bengals get the Seattle Seahawks at home in a game that should lend itself more to Bernard’s skillset over Hill’s. With Cincinnati as home favorites and their offense clicking, give me the cheaper, more versatile running back in Bernard.
Eddie Lacy – $7,600
If you are looking for a more expensive contrarian option at running back consider Lacy at home against the St. Louis Rams. One of my favorite ways to add some contrarianism to my lineups is to use a stud who is perceived to have a tough matchup. Lacy fits the bill there this week. He had 90 yards on 18 carries against the Niners and could have had a touchdown as well but instead the Packers called John Kuhn’s number for the one-yard plunge into the endzone. Now that he has had another week to get his injured ankle healthy Lacy should be ready to have another great game as a home favorite in week five.
Wide Receiver
Martavis Bryant – $6,100
Yes it will be with Mike Vick instead of Ben Roethlisberger, but Bryant is back from his four game suspension this week and you know that he and Vick have been working on that deep ball chemistry all week long. Remember what I said about starting players against the San Diego Chargers? Yep that goes for Bryant too. He’s the type of player that can have an entire week’s worth of fantasy points on just one play. Can’t you just see it now? Going into Monday Night you are in contention for some serious cash in your GPPs and you have Bryant left to go. In primetime and in his season debut Bryant catches an 80 yard touchdown that vaults the Steelers to a win and your lineup into a big score for the week. Sounds beautiful and I’m betting this is a scenario that plays out for someone in week five.
Alshon Jeffery – $7,600
Make sure you check the injury reports to make sure he is playing but if so then get him in your lineups. Jeffery has done absolutely nothing so far in 2015 but after a solid game from Jay Cutler in week four against the Raiders there is once again a slight glimmer of hope for the Bears’ offense. The Chiefs have given up big passing numbers all season and I look for this to continue in week five. Jefferey should have a fairly low ownership percentage and is priced as the 12th most expensive receiver. If he is good to go health wise he makes for a near risk-free choice for your lineup.
A.J. Green – $8,200
Green went nuclear in week three but came back to earth a bit in week four with seven receptions for 82 yards. This week he and Andy Dalton have a tough matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. They are however home favorites and Dalton appears to have turned a corner in his development. This game is a true test for the Bengals offense. If they can have a good game in week five then it puts them in the discussion along with New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, and Arizona as one of the best offenses in the league. One of my favorite ways to add some contrarianism to my lineups is to play studs with tough matchups. More often than not these are players that are relatively matchup proof so take advantage of the low ownership percentage that Green offers this week.
Tight End
Owen Daniels – $4,900
Daniels is next in line for the “play all your tight ends against Oakland” party. He hasn’t been usable so far this season so the masses are not likely to be on him unless the big media outlets start pumping him up this week. He should add a fair amount of uniqueness to your lineup while saving you a boatload of cash to upgrade another position.
Derek Carrier – $4,500
Who? The starting tight end for Washington that’s who. Believe it or not Jordan Reed is out again; this time with a sprained MCL and another concussion. That leaves Carrier, who was acquired in a trade with San Francisco, as the starting tight end. Kirk Cousins has targeted his tight ends on 25.4% of his throws so far this season so Carrier could be in line for a decent workload against the Falcons this week in a game where they are likely to be playing from behind most of the game.
DST
New York Giants – $4,300
The Giants run defense is actually playing really well as reflected by their #1 ranking in that category entering week 4. That spells bad news for Carlos Hyde and in turn the entire San Francisco offense. Colin Kaepernick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league in 2015. No running game and a terrible quarterback makes the Giants a low cost and low owned defense in week five.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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