The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Truth: Week Four
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
Speaking of being wrong, I might have been slightly wrong about one of my selections last week. I highlighted Devonta Freeman’s 18 games of mediocrity prior to week 3 and his rather anemic 2 yards after contract as reasons he might not be the next elite running back. Then he goes out and scores another three touchdowns. While he still hasn’t had as many 20+ yard rushes as I would like (he now has three in his career), he’s definitely producing behind what seems to be one of the best offensive lines in the league. Add in his ability in the passing game, and my estimate of him might have been a little low last week. Keep in mind he isn’t going to score three touchdowns every week, but the Falcons seem poised to put up a lot of points. With that said, if someone is willing to pay high end RB1 prices for him, I’m definitely selling. I think he settles in as more of a RB2 range.
This week I want to spend a bit of time looking at a pair of unlikely starters, Willie Snead of the Saints and Gary Barnidge of the Browns. Neither one of them was anywhere near the top 50 rankings at their position prior to this season. Yet they both seem to be locked in as valuable parts of their team’s offense. Are they gems or just fool’s gold? Let’s take a look.
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Willie Snead, WR NO
Week 4 stats: Six receptions on six targets for 89 yards.
2015 stats: 16 receptions on 22 targets for 240 yards and one touchdown.
People might not realize this, but Snead isn’t technically a rookie. Yes, he is seeing his first in game action of his NFL career this year, but he was actually a part of the 2014 NFL draft. He had a fantastic year in 2013 at Ball State with 106 receptions for 1516 yards and 15 touchdowns. He was also a semi-finalist for the Biletnikoff Award. He thought it was enough, but he ended up going undrafted in 2014 before being signed by the Cleveland Browns. He saw some time in preseason games but didn’t make the regular season roster. He then bounced around to a few different practice squads before landing with the Saints late in the year. After being inactive in week one this year, he has seen regular snaps and seems to be trusted by future hall of famer Drew Brees. The question is if he’ll stay relevant or find his way back to the bench.
The Good: One thing the Saints did this off-season was ship away an awful lot of pass catchers. With Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Kenny Stills in Miami, there are a whole lot of Drew Brees passes which need to be caught by someone else. Marques Colston isn’t getting any younger either. There is definitely the opportunity for someone to step up and play a key role in the passing game. We expected Brandin Cooks to dominate receptions and targets, but so far that hasn’t played out. In fact, Snead actually has more yards with four fewer receptions than Cooks has so far. Granted, Cooks has been targeted quite a bit more, but he can’t do it all. Someone else needs to be involved and Snead seems to be that guy.
What sets Snead apart from the other receivers on the team is he seems to have the trust of Brees. As we have seen with James Jones and Aaron Rodgers, the trust of an elite quarterback goes a long, long ways. Brees has made a point to talk up Snead, and he has looked his way at least six times in each of the last three weeks. Some of those times have been in crucial game situations. Snead has shown himself to be a reliable target, hauling in the catchable balls regardless of how tight the coverage is around him or the hit he might take. He looks like he could be a very solid possession receiver.
The Bad: Even though Snead was highly productive in college, there was a reason he went undrafted in the NFL draft and couldn’t make the woeful receiving corps of the Browns. At 5’11” and 195 pounds, he is a little bit on the smaller side. When you combine that with a lack of athleticism and explosiveness, you don’t get drafted and struggle to find a roster spot. His 4.62 second time in the 40 yard dash and very poor scores in the jumps and other runs at the combine make the lack of natural athletic ability pretty clear.
The other concern for Snead is while Brees is definitely great, the Saints have made a commitment to run the ball more. If you toss in the fact that outside of maybe Jimmy Graham, Brees really hasn’t made a point to overly involve any one receiver on a consistent basis. In fact, Brees makes a habit of spreading the ball around, sometimes to as many as 10 different players over the course of a game. The 2014 Saints had four different pass catchers lead the team in receiving for multiple games last year. Graham was the top dog, but Colston, Cooks and Stills all had multiple weeks where they led the pack. That could hurt Snead’s consistency.
The Ugly Truth: The trust of a quarterback goes a long, long way. If Brees trusts him, I’m definitely interested. While Snead clearly isn’t an athletic playmaker, the Saints already have that role filled with Cooks, he does seem to be a consistent receiver who can be in the right place at the right time. That’s exactly what Brees wants, and it is what made Colston a fixture in fantasy lineups for years. With Colston declining, I think Snead could easily start to fit into that role as a chain moving possession receiver.
There are some concerns, though. Snead isn’t athletic enough to make a lot of things happen on his own – that means if Brees does end up with a different team after this year, Snead is going to lose almost all of his value. He’s a product of the system and a great quarterback, but that might mean his window of relevance is going to be pretty slim. I don’t expect Snead to be a producer for years, but he should give you decent WR3 level numbers for this year, with the occasional up and down if Brees spreads the ball around even more than normal.
Final Verdict: Snead should be solid through at least this season, but his production is going to be dependent upon Brees. He isn’t going to see much more than six targets a game, so the ceiling could be low, but with Brees’ trust, I think he’ll be a slightly volatile WR3 for the season.
Gary Barnidge, TE CLE
Week 4 stats: Six receptions on six targets for 75 yards and one touchdown.
2015 stats: 16 receptions on 21 targets for 235 yards and two touchdowns.
If I am being perfectly honest, I had never heard of Gary Barnidge until this summer when I was doing a little research for our summer sleeper series. No one had volunteered for the Browns article (I wonder why…), so I took one for the team and was looking through their depth chart when I first saw Barnidge’s name. In fact, his presence on top of the depth chart was part of what made me think Robert Housler might be a solid sleeper or possibly the rookie EJ Bibbs. A fourth of the way into the season the eighth year veteran seems to be having a little breakout. Is this really a breakout by the 30 year old or just a flash in the pan?
The Good: Even bad teams throw the ball and need someone to catch it. In fact, sometimes the really bad teams are some of the ones who throw the ball the most since they are always behind. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the passing game numbers through the first four weeks and you will see the Browns are a top 10 passing offense, even with the combination of Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown at quarterback.
When your top four receivers are named Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins, Travis Benjamin and Taylor Gabriel there is going to be an opportunity to get some looks. As we all know, opportunity is half the battle when it comes to fantasy points. Not only does Barnidge have opportunity, but he has shown he can produce. He is tied for the team lead in receptions, second in receiving yards, targets and touchdowns. He is clearly very involved in the offense.
The Bad: If you look back over the last decade or two, you aren’t going to find too many skill position players who had their first fantasy relevant season at age 30 or later. In fact, in a quick look I couldn’t think of nor find any! I’ll admit I only spent a few minutes looking because I’m pretty confident saying there aren’t going to be very many. To put this season in perspective for Barnidge, even though the season is only four games long so far, he already has career highs in yardage, has tied his career high in touchdowns and is just seven yards shy of his career high in yardage. Another way to look at it is he really hasn’t done much of anything in his career as a pass catcher prior to this season.
The Ugly Truth: There isn’t any kind of track record of production to make us think Barnidge is a capable pass catcher at the NFL level, which makes me think his production is purely a result of the Browns not having any better options in the passing game. That speaks volumes about the lack of talent on the Browns’ roster right now. Barnidge had a total of one game with more than three catches in his first seven seasons. This year he has two games with six receptions. The only thing which has changed in year eight compared to the first seven is the talent around him has disappeared, pushing him towards the top of the heap.
If we go all the way back to 2008, he was actually drafted in the fifth round as a semi-athletic pass catcher at the tight end position. He lacked wiggle, but had decent speed and solid hands. His route running and ability to block were both suspect though, which might have contributed to his issues seeing the field during his NFL career. I think this might just be similar to Larry Donnell last year. Barnidge is producing now, but I don’t think it will last through the season. He’ll have a few good games, but he’ll also have some terrible ones in his future. I would have a really tough time trusting him in my starting lineup unless injuries or bye weeks made me desperate.
Final Verdict: I think this is definitely a bit of fool’s gold. There isn’t any long term value here and the short term value for 2015 is going to be rather inconsistent. He’s counting on the volume passing of the Browns to continue. As the season goes on, I think the young pass catchers will start to take on bigger roles and slowly push Barnidge aside. I think he’ll fade down the stretch and end as a middle level TE2.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
