Consistency Wins Championships

Mark Johnson

boldinThis article is written by new Member Corner writer, Mark Johnson. This is Mark’s second submission and we hope you enjoy his work.

When I first started playing Dynasty, I could not help but think how similar it felt to all of my time spent building franchises in Madden. Growing up, I recall spending hours in front of the television as I played season after season building a “dynasty” out of my favorite NFL franchise. Then, as it often does, life got in the way.

Of course I enjoyed year after year of fantasy football playing the re-draft format, but when I started playing Dynasty, I knew it was something special. While I’m sure there are a ton of people out there who simply enjoy the gambling side of fantasy football each week and participate casually, there is a growing minority of us who can’t get enough of the research, the analysis, and everything football. Dynasty was built for those of us in the latter group. Dynasty fantasy football gives each and every owner the chance to feel like a real-life NFL General Manager making personnel decisions that will impact their fortunes for years.

But, have we fallen victim to the scouting and analysis we’ve come to love?

In my last article, I explained why I believe too many in the fantasy community are too high on receivers. In this article, I will explain why I feel that many owners are too trigger-happy when it comes to prospects, youth, and “rebuilding.” As Herm Edwards once said:  You play to win the game. This is a simple guideline, but so many seem to miss the ball. Through my experience playing Dynasty, I have found it is the owners who constantly chase after the “shiny ball” that are left chasing consolation brackets each December.

Year after year, I see owners trading away aging stars for draft picks, younger NFL prospects, or some combination of the two. And, without fail, I see those same owners kicking themselves at the end of the season as they watch their aging vet carry another owner to the promise land.

So, I decided to compile data on a number of star running backs and wide receivers from the past two decades to better determine at what point stars at each position “fall off” and stop providing us with fantasy value.

Running Backs

table 1

The average number of seasons played by the retired backs above was 11, while the average number of fantasy relevant seasons produced was 9.10. Finally, it took an average of 1.47 NFL seasons for a back from this chart to deliver fantasy relevance, and the average age they last produced fantasy relevance was 31.21.

Wide Receivers

table 2

The average number of seasons played by the receivers above was 13.63, while the average number of fantasy relevant seasons produced was 9.89. Finally, it took an average of 2.47 NFL seasons for a back from this chart to deliver fantasy relevance, and the average age they last produced fantasy relevance was 34.

[inlinead]My primary purpose in writing this article is to help dynasty owners more accurately determine how much longer they should expect their veteran players to provide fantasy relevance, and in turn help them determine when a veteran player might make a good “buy” or “sell.” Additionally, I will explain why I believe this data can help you make better decisions when drafting, or trading for younger players.

No, I will not be comparing backs and receivers again in this article, but I should point out that the average number of fantasy relevant seasons produced by the star receivers is not even one full season greater than the average number of fantasy relevant seasons produced by the star backs. While you might incorrectly assume I put these tables together arbitrarily, the fact is I did not. As you can tell from the tables above, I did not use a single receiver or back that delivered less than five fantasy relevant seasons, and listed only three players (Shaun Alexander, Eddie George and Jamal Lewis) who played less than ten seasons. I also did not arbitrarily decide what constituted a “fantasy relevant” season. In my last article, I objectively decided to use 100 Non-PPR fantasy points in a season as the benchmark for fantasy relevance since that figure breaks down to just 6.25 points per game, and anything less seemed difficult to classify as “relevant.”[i]

Go Young at Running Back, Proven at Wide Receiver

A couple of things jump out at me from the collection of data above. First, as most of us already know, the “cliff” for running backs is 30-years-old and the table above illustrates that the fall-off point is only marginally better for star backs (31.21). Contrastingly, the data above shows us that the fall-off point for star receivers is 34-years-old; nearly three years later than it is for backs. However, it took the receivers a full season more, on average, to produce fantasy relevance than it did the running backs.

Given that star backs and receivers average about the same number of fantasy relevant seasons throughout their respective careers, this tells me that you want to be jumping on the backs early in their careers to ride their fresh legs, and that you should temper your expectations when it comes to receivers until they have been in the league for a couple of years and have had the opportunity to improve their route running and gain the confidence of their quarterbacks.

The Veterans

Before sharing with you what I have found to be the winning roster-construction strategy for Dynasty, I should first provide you with a few veteran names, and my coinciding projections for them. At receiver, I believe there are eight noteworthy veterans we should discuss:

Wide Receivers

table 3

I believe that Brandon Marshall will have a career year with the Jets this season. Though many naysayers may point to his being a “head case” as a reason to stay away, arguing that his effort will fall by the wayside when the team starts to flounder, I disagree with this notion and believe he is a truly gifted competitor. I began writing this piece prior to Week 2, and had mentioned that he might struggle with Vontae Davis shadowing him, but even before Davis left the game with a concussion, Marshall had already notched a couple of receptions and had drawn two defensive pass-interference calls. With Week 3 now in the books, Marshall is now well on his way to yet another statistically significant season in 2015. He does not turn 32 until next March, and judging by Table 2, he could very well contribute three more fantasy relevant seasons including this one. As a person who owns Marshall in a Dynasty league, I am going to hang on to him through the end of the 2015 season, and then try to move him after he finishes this season as a Top-15 receiver.

We already know Steve Smith, Sr. will be retiring at the end of this season, and though I could very easily see Anquan Boldin playing another season, I think he is nearing the end of the line. But, that doesn’t mean they are valueless. Smith is BLOWING up right now and if you find yourself falling out of contention early this season, you should be able to acquire real value for him if you send him to a contender with a need at receiver.

After turning 32 this summer, I am ready to jump ship on Marques Colston as he has looked sluggish and old thus far this season and Brandon Coleman is there nipping at his heels. Speaking of looking old and jumping ship, get out from under Andre Johnson while you can. Johnson has always been an excellent route runner, and he’s always had the ability to win the 50/50 balls by using his hips to gain positional advantages as well as by using his strength and size to simply overpower weaker defensive backs. This may help him maintain fantasy relevance longer than the “average” star receiver, but time catches up with all of us, and Johnson will be no different. I have always been a big fan of his game, but I believe we are about to see a sharp decline as he passes through his all-important Age 34 season (See Table 2). I am a huge believer in the “eye-test,” and thought Johnson looked like a slow tight end for much of the Monday night game against the Jets. I do expect him to marginally produce this season as a red zone target for Andrew Luck and as a security blanket when Luck finds himself needing to move the chains, but his time is just about up.

I was really impressed by Roddy White Week 1 as he showed the lateral quickness and agility of a younger player. However, he has looked like a dud ever since and I’m afraid you will no longer be able to rely on White to even consistently produce WR4 numbers moving forward. In other words, if you can get anything in return for him, I would advise you to do so since an aging, unreliable player that could very likely miss time due to injury at some point this season is not the kind of player you want in your lineup come Weeks 14-16.

Lastly, there’s Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson who I believe are both “buys.”

First, let’s talk about Fitz. He turned 32 last month, and while it is almost inevitable that he has already produced what will be his best statistical outputs of 2015, he looks like he has plenty of gas left in the tank, and I believe he should have two or three solid seasons left following 2015. Considering how drastically low the fantasy community was on Fitzgerald, and how unbelievably high everyone seems to be on John Brown, I would wait until a week where Fitzgerald is less involved and Brown is the beneficiary to buy low on Fitzgerald.

Calvin Johnson is now in his ninth season in the NFL, and I firmly believe everyone is wildly undervaluing his fantasy stock. He celebrated his age 30 birthday last week, but all that tells me is that we are nearing the end of his prime, not the end of his career. He is still an absolute terror for opposing defenses to deal with, and at 6’5 with hands of glue, remains a dominant red zone option. And, though he may have lost a step, let’s not forget this guy still has top end speed. My only real concern for Megatron is that he has played at least nine games every season on turf (eight at home, and at least one on the road each season against the division-rival Vikings), and the combination of his height and athleticism result in a lot of hard landings. When you think back to how gracefully the much shorter Jerry Rice would fall toward the end of his career, and compare that with the hits we see Calvin Johnson take when he faces double coverage every week and is often hung out to dry by Matthew Stafford, it becomes more understandable why many are reducing his value. However, I will not be one of those to jump ship on a generational talent—one I strongly feel has at least a couple of statistically significant seasons left in him.

Running Backs

At running back, I believe there are eight noteworthy veterans we should discuss:

table 4

It gets a little trickier with the most tenured backs in the league. If you do own one of the top aging stars at running back, it is less likely you will receive enough in return to warrant trading them. However, should you find yourself completely out of contention later this season, you should most definitely look to the market and deal one of these players. And, if it were me, I’d package them with a younger player I was less high on than the consensus in order to maximize my return.

Chris Johnson just returned from the fantasy-dead this past weekend to ruin many of your Sundays I’m sure. However, David Johnson is the back you want to own in Arizona, and I do not believe CJ0K is worth rostering in dynasty. So, if you can sell him after a productive performance for anything at all, DO IT! As for the others, they could absolutely help give a team the extra push needed to make a championship run.

Though I do not think Frank Gore has a particularly good season this year, I do think that he could help a team that is weak at running back come fantasy playoff time. Of the backs above, Gore is the second least valuable after only CJ0k, so I would advise to ship him to a contender the second you feel your team is falling out of contention (hopefully after he posts a multi-touchdown game and the Colts offensive line looks better than a busted dam).

Of the names above, Jamaal Charles is the one that stands out to me as most likely to carry value beyond 2015, and is the player I personally like the most—as a guy who looks spry as ever, and a player I feel certain will deliver two more RB1 seasons, and possibly even three more fantasy relevant seasons including his 2015 campaign.

Next on that list for me is Adrian Peterson. Having missed an entire season last year on suspension, I am confident the stud back out of Oklahoma will not only deliver elite statistics this year, I feel he’ll be poised to do so again next season, too. Nevertheless, I’m still moving on from both of these guys if I fall out of contention and could get real value in return. Leagues vary with respect to how draft picks and young players are valued, but I personally would not part ways with AP or Charles at this point for less than a first-round draft pick. Since you would most likely be trading them to a stout contender, ideally you would look to acquire a young, flier-type player in addition to the late first-rounder.

While it pains me to say, I must reluctantly admit that I see the end nearing for Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster. Lynch didn’t gain the nickname “Beast Mode” by ducking out of bounds at the end of long gains. He did so by running between the tackles in arguably the most punishing fashion we’ve seen over the past two decades outside of Mike Alstott. With Lynch having considered retirement during this past offseason due to growing back ailments, I think he has—at the very most—two seasons left including 2015.

Arian Foster just turned 29 here at the end of summer, and is so difficult to believe in given his injury history. However, Foster remains an elite talent when he is on the football field. So, while I anticipate Foster will not remain fantasy relevant past the 2016 season, I do think he is worthy of roster consideration for contending Dynasty teams this year and next as a back who could easily give you 20 points, on any given Sunday, just when you need it most.

How to Build a Roster for Present and Future

We don’t run much analysis on veteran players unless they are changing teams, getting a new quarterback, new offensive coordinator, coach, or the like. However, we spend hours gorging on statistics and watching a myriad of videos to analyze younger players. The reason for this is simple, and I am not going to fault anyone for it. We do so in hopes of landing that next perennial stud who we can build our rosters around. Besides, for the most part we already know what to expect out of those veterans because it is much easier to make predictions using a larger sample size to do so which, interestingly enough, is exactly why I believe we tend to undervalue veterans.

When I told two of the savviest fantasy footballers I know that I would be writing an article on this topic, both commented that they love “zigging” while others “zag” together toward rookies’ hype, astutely telling me they prefer the lower standard deviation of estimated points veterans provide, stemming from a longer, more proven track record. I could not agree more with this philosophy.

I do not believe in “rebuilding.” Regardless of the format, the one goal we all have when playing fantasy football is to WIN. Yet, after spending a summer without football, owners who have spent countless hours over the summer learning everything there is to know about the incoming draft class literally blow up their rosters believing they are the wise ones, and will be dominating their leagues two to three years from now. Unfortunately for them, far more often than not, they are dead wrong. Instead, they will find that they are lucky to hit on half of the draft picks they so foolishly dealt their veteran stars for, prolonging the mediocrity they so desperately wish to rid themselves of. In defense of this strategy, these owners will tell themselves that they are okay with losing now with an eye toward the bigger picture as they would rather finish toward the bottom of the league and secure earlier draft picks than fight their way to a fifth place finish and never climb from the cellar. However, this simply sends them on a fool’s errand every off-season.

If an NFL General Manager has difficulty correctly predicting how an incoming rookie will perform throughout their NFL careers, how capable do you think Larry from Accounting is? This is why the “rebuilding” strategy almost never works. Tell me, where did Odell Beckham Jr. go in your rookie draft last year? And, for that matter, where did Jeremy Hill get selected? Too often, people prepare for their rookie drafts under the belligerent misconception that they are clairvoyant talent assessors. I’m sorry, Larry, you are not.

The formula for successful roster construction is actually quite simple. What is it, you ask? BALANCE.

If you have been playing Dynasty for any length of time, go look at your league right now. I would venture to guess that the owners in your leagues who have been most consistently successful have rosters sharing one common theme: a balance between veterans and youth. As with all fantasy football, Dynasty requires a good bit of luck. But, that is not all it takes. To be successful in Dynasty, of course you must grab a couple winning lottery tickets through your rookie drafts over the years, but you must also be sure to mitigate risk where you can. How does one do this? Simple, carry a handful of veterans on your roster—players with a high floor, and a long track record of consistent production. They might not be the sexy name you can brag to your friends about, but they will be the integral pieces to your championship runs. Go compare the Oakland Raiders to the New England Patriots and tell me I’m wrong, I dare you.

Remember, consistency wins championships.

As always, best of luck to all of you as you forge your way through the 2015 season.

[1] https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2015/09/12/running-over-your-competition/

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