Editor’s Note: Love those daily contests? Make sure you enter the exclusive DLF Football Championship for week four.
In week three, we had some rough plays. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski combined for a measly 34.82 points in a game where the Patriots scored six touchdowns (none of which went to Gronk). Ryan Mallett and DeAndre Hopkins connected for a touchdown but not enough else on their way to a combined 32.12 points. They were still a much better value than Brady and Gronkowski, but they didn’t lead lineups into big cash. Nick Foles and Jared Cook were a huge miss. The two only put up 9.08 points.
I advised not playing the Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews stack, who put up 16.42 points. The best call of the week was my Highest Upside honorable mention of Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb and James Jones. They only needed 69 points to meet value and collectively amassed a whopping 90.12. I loved the combination but was afraid the price was going to be too high against the Kansas City defense.
This week, we’re going for the big money!
Matt Ryan, QB ATL
Julio Jones, WR ATL
I was originally going to keep this pair off of the list, but Houston has just given up way too many points to opposing quarterbacks to fade Matt Ryan ($8,400) and Julio Jones ($9,400). Ryan is this week’s third most expensive quarterback and Jones is the most expensive receiver, but this pair has been on fire this season.
This is an extraordinarily high priced stack for only entering the fourth week of the season, but with this matchup against the Texans, we would be foolish to not have at least a small ownership of these players. Jones leads the league in receptions and receiving yards, is third in yards after the catch and tied for second in the league with four touchdown receptions. Ryan is second in passing yardage, while throwing all but one of his touchdown passes to Jones. In short, these two are on a tear right now. If you can hit on a few value plays to balance this expensive stack, you could be well on your way to major tournament winnings.
Honorable Mention: Eli Manning ($7,800) and Odell Beckham, Jr. ($9,100)
Andy Dalton, QB CIN
AJ Green, WR CIN
[inlinead]Did you know Andy Dalton ($7,600) is third in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks? Yeah, that’s amazing. So many were ready to write him off as just an average, run-of-the-mill quarterback, but he’s been playing phenomenally well this year. He is sixth in passing yardage and tied for fourth in touchdown passes, while only throwing one interception. AJ Green ($8,400) is fourth in receiving yardage and has an absolutely delicious matchup against Kansas City’s Marcus Peters this week. Peters has given up four touchdown receptions and nearly 200 receiving yards in the first four weeks of the season. He’s no match for Green.
The Chiefs are giving up fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers at a astonishing rate, ranking worst in the NFL in both categories. Dalton and Green should eat them alive. Thus far, the Chiefs haven’t been tested against any tight ends of the caliber of Tyler Eifert ($5,700), but there are some great matchups for other tight ends. I won’t be stacking Eifert this week.
Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson ($8,200), Doug Baldwin ($5,700) and Jimmy Graham ($6,600)
Stack of the Weak
Derek Carr, QB OAK
Amari Cooper, WR OAK
I have purposely avoided recommending players on away teams in this series as much as possible, but it’s inescapable this week. Derek Carr ($7,000) and Amari Cooper ($7,200) will be in Chicago against a Bears team who has given up the second most touchdown receptions to opposing wide receivers. Alan Ball and Kyle Fuller will both spend time lined up across from Cooper, who combine for a -6.8 in Pro Football Focus’ grading. Even if you aren’t a believer in PFF’s grading system, the cornerbacks have combined for a 70.3% catch rate for 297 yards and four touchdown receptions – that’s not very good.
Cooper is the 17th most expensive receiver after ranking 14th in fantasy points among receivers in the last two weeks. Against Ball and Fuller, Cooper should be a top ten play. Carr should exceed his value, as there are 17 quarterbacks priced higher. This should be a coming out party for this young duo.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Weeden ($6,400), Terrance Newman ($5,900) and Jason Witten ($6,000)
Carson Palmer, QB ARI
Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
It was difficult to find a stack I really thought was exceedingly overrated this week. After studying some stats and matchups I came to this unprecedented pairing. Carson Palmer ($8,200) and Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) have lit up the league in the first month of the season. However, their prices on FanDuel still haven’t caught up. Palmer ranks behind only seven quarterbacks in price and only 14 receivers are more expensive than Fitzgerald. This would probably lead one to believe they are a good stack this week, but it’s not the case.
The Cardinals are playing a Rams secondary which have given up only 371 receiving yards to opposing receivers and only two total touchdown receptions. Janoris Jenkins and Lamarcus Joyner, the two corners Fitzgerald should see the most, have combined to allow 30 receptions for 269 yards. While that’s a lot of volume, they have only given up one touchdown. In contrast, St. Louis is seventh worst in fantasy points against opposing running backs. This is a game which should have Chris Johnson ($6,700) and David Johnson ($5,500) leading the charge with a strong ground attack. Andre Ellington ($7,000) should also factor in if he returns to the field. Palmer and Fitzgerald should still connect for upwards of ten receptions, with Fitzgerald having safe value in cash games, but the 46.8 points they need to meet tournament value should remain comfortably out of reach.
Honorable Mention: Michael Vick ($6,700) and Antonio Brown ($8,900)