Dynasty Stock Market: Early Season Adjustments
It might seem like the NFL season just got started, but it’s already time for you to make some very important decisions about the direction of your dynasty team. As you know, this series is all about ever-changing player value in dynasty leagues and there is not a time when we see the value pendulum swing further in either direction than the first month of the NFL season.
I want to pose some questions to you that may change the direction of your season, or even the next few seasons. Hopefully, these are questions you’ve already been pondering in recent days, but if not, now is the time to find answers.
1.) Are you a contender?
As I mentioned earlier, the NFL season still feels brand new, but with three weeks in the books and a fourth week kicking off tonight, we’re essentially one-fourth of the way through the fantasy regular season. If your team has started with three consecutive losses, it’s time to re-evaluate your goals for the season. Even if some of those losses were an example of bad luck, it could be too late.
Meanwhile, if you’ve started with a winning streak, you’re off on the right foot, but there are no guarantees of future success. As you judge your team and your chances for a playoff spot in a couple of months, there are many factors to assess.
First, you obviously must begin with the talent sitting on your own squad. Is your team loaded and set to cruise to the playoffs? This is the case for only a lucky few. Instead, most of us have clear weaknesses that could really sting if things don’t go our way. You must analyze those weaknesses and gauge your shot at making the playoffs.
Another factor to consider is the strength of other teams. I’m in one 12-team league where three teams are clear builders and would rather struggle through the season in hopes of a nice rookie pick than win a few games. There’s nothing wrong with this strategy, in my opinion, but it can change the dynamics of the league. Rather than 12 teams vying for a playoff spot, there are really only nine. Instead of 11 other teams I can shop my veteran players to, there are just eight.
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Assessing your own team as well as others is not as simple as checking the current record in the standings. You must dig deep and check out the total points of each team, which could be very important if your league rewards a playoff spot based on points scored. Also, check out each roster. There may be a “paper champion” who has somehow started with three consecutive wins, but are clearly not strong contenders.
Back to those weaknesses…once you’ve identified your needs, its time to make the necessary moves to ensure your hot streak continues. That’s right, it’s time to pounce on the 0-3 teams in your league, looking for players that can help you win now. Our inclination is to focus on acquiring veterans who can push our teams over the hump, but an older player is not always the best option. Instead, search for the player that best fills your need and make a strong offer, while also considering the likely game plan of the other owner.
Backing up to the original question….if your answer is “no,” whether it be a surprise or by design, you must start making moves that help your team in 2016. This includes selling off any older players who might have value to another team, as well as those “one hit wonder” type of players who have little value from year-to-year, but make a huge impact during the current season. Justin Forsett is looking like that type of player and many seem to think Dion Lewis could be the next example.
You also want to acquire as many draft picks as you can in an effort to quickly rebuild your team into a contender. Those picks will only rise in value as the months go by, but you might find a contending team willing to part with future picks in an effort to bring home a title this season.
2.) Are you ready for bye weeks?
Hopefully, you’ve ben cruising through these first three weeks with some simple lineup decisions. Barring some unfortunate injuries, you’ve likely been trotting out the exact players you expected to start back in July. With Week Four comes some difficult weekly lineup decisions thanks to the week off given to each team once a season.
The impact will be felt early with some of the top players across the league using Week Four to rest and recover while you’re forced to replace them in your lineup. Among the players missing from your team this week will be Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, along with Titans Marcus Mariota and Kendall Wright. In case these bye weeks snuck up on you, you’re in luck as only two teams are off this week. That won’t be the case over the next several weeks though, so get ready!
As you make moves to cover your bye week, be careful not to overreact. It’s rarely a wise decision to make a dynasty trade simply due to a bye week conflict. Instead, you can often find a replacement on the waiver wire in the rare case where you have no other options on your bench.
Finally, factor in bye weeks to you player evaluation during trades and even waivers. A player who has already had their bye week early in the season may hold the tie-breaker over a player who will be sitting out when you need him the most late in the season.
3.) How is player value changing?
This is the most difficult of the three questions to answer, but might also be the most important to wrap your head around as you assess your team for the next few months, and few years.
I mentioned at the beginning about how player values can change quickly once the season begins. Before the season began, did you expect dynasty players to consider Dion Lewis a top 20 running back? Did you project rookie Karlos Williams to be outplaying his new teammate LeSean McCoy? Of course not (none of us did), but this is the new reality based on a small sample size of three games and if you want to contend and keep up, you’re forced to constantly re-evaluate player value.
Not all players are gaining value though, as early season disappointments like McCoy, CJ Anderson, Andre Johnson and many others have left dynasty players shaking their heads in frustration.
This is not to say your value of these players and all NFL players has to match the new consensus, but it is very important that you’re aware of what the market value of a player might be. Knowing this can allow you to better craft trade offers that will help your team reach the goals you’ve set. It will also ensure you’re not selling low on a player, or left holding the bag on a player the rest of your league has already give up on.
Before you can determine how you value a player relative to the majority, you must understand where the value lies. There are a couple of ways I suggest doing this. First, if you’re active on Twitter, check the #dynastytrades or simply follow our own Eric Burtzlaff, who helps keep us all informed about the latest deals going down across many types of leagues. Just because a trade happens in one league does not mean the same deal will fly in your league, but you will notice trends in the types of trades and the changes in specific player value.
Another way to track changes is to participate (or just follow) our dynasty mock drafts used to identify player average draft position. As you know, these mock drafts take place each month in the off-season, but they also continue during the season and there are always some major value swings after we’ve seen a few games played. If you’re interested in participating in these mock drafts, simply sign up and we’ll be starting soon.
Finally, check out the constantly updated dynasty rankings here at DLF. Our team of writers and rankers are already considering each of the points made above in an effort to bring you the best and most actionable rankings around. These reflect the changing value of players and offer you insight that can help you change the trajectory of your dynasty team.
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