Off-Season Reflections: Running Back Fallers

James Simpson

reflections
Sometimes, a player can simply be dealt a bad hand. Whether a veteran returns to oust them, a rookie replacement is drafted or the coaches want to ‘move in a different direction,’ touches are not guaranteed for most running backs in the NFL. The players I am focusing on in this piece experienced an ADP fall in the off-season due to changes around them. Were the changes made because they lacked the talent? Was someone else brought in to challenge them or take over the job? How do the coaches plan to use these players? I took a player’s March ADP rank and compared it to August – these were the running backs who fell the furthest.

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
March: 69, August: 100 (-31)

He barely maintained his spot in the top 100 as the season kicked off, but I would not be at all surprised if he continues to fall further throughout the season. It is extremely difficult to make a fantasy impression if you are held out of the end zone all year, so his lack of touchdowns didn’t do an impressive 2014 season justice. Matt Asiata was stealing the touchdowns then and Adrian Peterson is stealing the full workload now. McKinnon’s fall is justified – players who are sitting on the bench should not be worth as much as others who are scoring the points, but I think now is a great opportunity to buy him. He is a forgotten man who could easily be back on owner’s minds with a couple of ‘splash’ plays.

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Tre Mason, RB STL
March: 40, August: 107 (-67)

Todd Gurley would knock anyone out of his way. Second round pick? Get outta here. Productive in your rookie campaign and showing promise? It doesn’t matter. Mason is not Gurley, and for now he must take a back seat for the tenth overall pick to do his thing. As Ryan McDowell said in DLF’s Weekly Impact Events, even if Gurley is eased slowly into the lineup, it would be no surprise (with his talent) if he busted a long run at any time. What does that mean for Mason? I would actually expect him to be heavily involved when he is healthy, until a time when Gurley feels back to ‘game speed’ – the Rams won’t want to put their star at any risk and Mason could benefit with the bulk of touches. He also has some good long-term value if given a chance elsewhere, so it is worth keeping tabs on his value to see how low it goes.

Joique Bell, RB DET
March: 79, August: 111 (-32)

‘Fear Ameer’ not only applies to any defense facing Lions impressive rookie Ameer Abdullah, but to the veteran Bell as well. We saw the start of the passing of the torch in the preseason, but it won’t cause too much of a ripple effect in fantasy football if the Lions continue to throw the ball every single play. Abdullah had a whopping six carries for nine yards in week two, to top Bell’s four rushes for two yards. Even in the opener, they had only thirteen carries between them. Detroit is either struggling to establish the running game, or genuinely wants to put the ball in Matthew Stafford’s hands as much as possible. Either way, Bell warranted a fall and we shouldn’t expect him to re-gain value any time soon.

Christine Michael, RB DAL
March: 93, August: 133 (-40)

Christine. The next big thing. The man with arguably the best garbage time, pre-season and training camp highlights has moved on to a situation where he isn’t stuck behind one of the greatest backs in the game. He should have a clear path to a starting job with only ‘nobodies’ in his way, right? Nope. Three weeks of being a healthy scratch doesn’t say much about him finally reaching his ‘potential.’ I find the whole Michael saga extremely entertaining and think the only realistic ending to this story is a Michael/Darren McFadden ‘duo of redemption’ to lead the Cowboys past the Seahawks and Raiders on the way to a Super Bowl 50 win. I’m not holding my breath.

Terrance West, RB TEN
March: 128, August: 183 (-55)

When West headed south before the season, it didn’t really provide much clarity on what to think of him as a dynasty asset. He went from one murky backfield to another, both of which consist of a second-year starter and a rookie who appears to be ahead of West in the pecking order. I didn’t think West stood a chance with superstar Duke Johnson coming in to town at Cleveland, but he also now sits behind Bishop Sankey (my ‘1b’ from the 2014 class). West’s fall shouldn’t warrant a turnaround, except if Sankey continues to struggle like he did in his rookie campaign and has at the beginning of this season.

Stevan Ridley, RB NYJ
March: 152, August: 197 (-45)

The expectation of Ridley owners and drafters in March would have been a new opportunity in a place where he would compete for a starting position. It is a positive outlook that believers in any free agent running back have every year – and why not? If you hit on a player who ends up as the lead back because a team believed in them, you will strike value gold. In fact, Ridley was one of the backs I identified last year as someone to acquire before free agency just in case they end up in a good spot (along with CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram). He did have his chance, but Chris Ivory made the position his. Ridley’s best football is behind him.

Denard Robinson, RB JAX
March: 142, August: 208 (-66)

The Jacksonville backfield was ugly last year, but Robinson had a spell of looking pretty good. However, pretty good doesn’t last in this league and the Jags upgraded with their second round selection of TJ Yeldon. Understandably, Robinson’s ADP rank dropped considerably and I believe he is best suited as a change-of-pace back without any real dynasty value. There are mixed reviews of Yeldon’s performances so far and Robinson may see opportunities to ‘spell’ him, but he doesn’t deserve to move back up much further.

Khiry Robinson, RB NO
March: 130, August: 217 (-87)

Robinson has been the darkhorse for a starting gig with the Saints since he showed great promise in the 2013 playoffs against Philadelphia and the stingy Seahawks defense. However, he hasn’t grasped any opportunity to be the type of player who forces his coaches to feed him the ball. He has only had over 13 carries in a game twice and despite the absence of CJ Spiller giving him the opportunity for touches early this season, he has produced nothing of fantasy relevance. His huge ADP fall after Spiller’s addition is justified and I wouldn’t be targeting Robinson at this point.

Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB BAL
March: 167, August: 220 (-53)

We saw both Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen rise considerably in the off-season, so Taliaferro was deemed to be the odd man out. However, Evan Silva summed up his weekly prospects in this tweet:

He is not an automatic start, but a decent flyer as a flex/player at the end of your starting lineup – and can be had for almost nothing.

Karlos Williams, RB BUF

March: 177, August: Undrafted (-64)

Williams was undrafted in every one of our August mocks, after being such a highly-coveted talent only a year ago. When the Bills aquired LeSean McCoy, you had to assume they would feed him endlessly, but Williams has stolen touches early in the season and bagged a few touchdowns to get back on fantasy radars. He is also currently second in our current homepage poll of backup rookie runners who are most likely to emerge as future starters. Perhaps we shouldn’t have forgotten about someone who was so highly regarded for some time in college. At this point, he looks like the steal of this year’s rookie drafts.

Other Notables: Trent Richardson, RB FA (March: 195, August: 236), Theo Riddick, RB DET (March: 162, August: 237), Dan Herron, RB FA (March: 193, August: 238), Branden Oliver, RB SD (March: 186, August: 240), Ka’Deem Carey, RB CHI (March: 175, August: Undrafted)

Lessons Learned

Having done this for a couple of years now, we start to notice trends. Michael, Bell, West and McKinnon were all risers last year based on situations. With the exception of Joique Bell, we hadn’t seen anything from any of the others on the field but were happy to project an uptick in production. They followed that up with varying seasons, but most would probably be described as disappointments by their owners in a dynasty setting. Off-season fallers tend to either be corrections of people we hyped too much in a previous season, or players who have someone else destroy their value. Most of the time, this is justified, and we just have to learn from it and try and be ahead of the curve next time.

The series comes to a close next time with our final off-season risers and fallers.

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james simpson