Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Three

George Kritikos

dalton

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Number to Remember (NTR) – 2

Two is the number of sacks the two teams have allowed, combined. Pressure will be a struggle, but will also be a key to control the flow of the game.

Giovani Bernard is having a nice early part of the season. After Jeremy Hill saw the bench after a pair of fumbles last week, Bernard seized the advantage and currently sports a 6.6 yards per carry average (3.5 for Hill). Add in nine receptions for Gio, compared to just one for Hill, and we could see Bernard be a prominent part of this week’s strategy.

A forgotten player in the receiving game is Marlon Brown. He actually has more offensive snaps (104) than any receiver not named Steve Smith. Unlike his rookie year, however, Brown is playing a more intermediate role, as evident by his 9.3 yards per reception. Given the strong Bengals secondary, Brown could be a nice fallback option for Joe Flacco when the deeper routes fail.

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New Orleans at Carolina
NTR – 5

Five represents the number of Carolina pass catchers with at least five receptions so far this season. Of those, no one has more than seven. Part of that is the 50/50 split between the run and pass and another part is the lack of a clear top option for Cam Newton.

If you like Russian Roulette, you must love the Carolina receivers. For this week, I think Corey “Philly” Brown has a chance to see some extra looks. The Saints defense has struggled against the slot, allowing a 72% catch rate. Brown leads the team in routes run from the slot (26) and has caught both his targets so there is opportunity given his usage and efficiency.

I wanted to talk Willie Snead but the news Drew Brees is out shifts the focus to backup Luke McCown. With just one regular season attempt in over two years with the Saints, it is hard to say what he can do. This will be his tenth career start, but he has been turnover prone (4.4% of throws have been intercepted) and is not much of a downfield passer (6.4 yards per attempt), making this a tall order for the veteran.

Tampa Bay at Houston
NTR – 105

Somewhat of a surprise, the Texans lead the NFL in pass attempts with 105 in just two weeks. Unfortunately, that comes with a 51% completion rate and just three touchdown passes. The latter points may not matter much since Arian Foster is once again out this week.

After being held catchless last week, Mike Evans will be closely monitored as he returns to health. He is needed on a team generating the fourth fewest pass yardage in the NFL (375) and completing just 56% of their passes. Given the fact the defense is giving up over 30 points per game, Evans’ red zone prowess would be a welcomed addition too.

With Jonathan Grimes also ailing with a knee injury, Chris Polk could see some more work here. While the team has failed to establish the run (see the number to remember), that defense would appreciate more than a 1:52 average drive time (second worst in the NFL) by the offense. Polk does lead the team in carries so far and another game approaching the 14 carries from last week is possible.

Jacksonville at New England
NTR – 9

The Jacksonville defense ranks ninth in both points allowed and yardage allowed in 2015. The 20 points per game and 325 yards allowed will be tested by a Patriots offense that scores 34 points and averages 434 yards per game. The likely outcome has the red hot Patriots continuing their scoring spree but the Jaguars should not be completely slept on.

While Rashad Greene was an underneath target, his move to the IR should allow Allen Hurns to get a few more opportunities. So far, Hurns has caught nine of eleven passes and the Patriots defense is 22nd in yards allowed with three of their four cornerbacks seeing more than 80% of their targets being caught. If Blake Bortles can avoid turning the ball over, he should use the entire field to test the pass defense.

Remember Aaron Dobson? The former second round pick was healthy for a change and made an appearance in week two to the tune of seven catches (on eight targets) for 87 yards. With Dobson seeing 100 snaps in the first two weeks and Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski the focal points of a defensive scheme, he could have another high target game.

Philadelphia at New York Jets
NTR – 0.81

The Jets defense is only allowing 0.81 points per drive (per Pro Football Reference), best in the league. Part of that is due to their turnover rate of 9.5%, also best in the league. If the Jets have any chance of winning, they will need to capitalize on scoring opportunities and avoid turning over the ball.

The early tight end split has Zach Ertz seeing 68% of the available snaps while Brent Celek is at 42%. Ertz has been the secondary target after Jordan Matthews and given the injuries to the Jets secondary, the defense could struggle to contain the Eagles receiving options. With his 10.1 average depth of target (per PFF), Ertz is the intermediate target who has slowly replaced Jeremy Maclin.

With Eric Decker and Chris Owusu hurting, the latter out for a few weeks, Quincy Enunwa has a chance to be involved in what could be a shootout. The 2014 sixth round draft pick has two drops among his three targets, catching the third, so he could go the way of Preston Parker. That said, the team trusts him and they are low on healthy options.

Oakland at Cleveland
NTR – 56.5 and 23.8

The former is the percent of drives Oakland allows for a score (worst in football) while the latter is the percentage of drives where Cleveland scores (second worst). One of these numbers will fail to hold up and likely, determine the flow of this game.

Despite the presence of Aldon Smith and Khalil Mack, the Raiders have failed to record a single sack. While the Browns have allowed five so far, they were all to Johnny Manziel, who is not starting this week. Much of the previous stat around scoring defense will revolve around these two creating pressure.

So, Travis Benjamin is a thing. Hard to believe his 34 yards per catch holds up but it speaks to the big play presence they need on a team of possession receivers. Josh McCown has shown ability to deliver the ball downfield and if he gets the time needed, there could be a few more big plays this week.

Atlanta at Dallas
NTR – 2.6

Tevin Coleman is nursing sore ribs and Devonta Freeman is just not good. Now, they get to face the top run defense, who is allowing just 2.6 yards per carry and just 106 rushing yards, both tops in the NFL. Atlanta has been a pass first offense (58% of plays) by choice this year, but I suspect this week will be that way whether they want to or not.

With all the passing options, it is easy to overlook Jacob Tamme. In his first two games with the Falcons, he has caught at least three passes in each and overall has caught 78% of the passes thrown his way. Dallas has struggled with tight ends in the past so I suspect Tamme should once again be involved in the offense.

This offense is a shell of itself with Tony Romo now out in addition to Dez Bryant. Now, we get roughly half the season with Brandon Weeden, the former first rounder who did manage to complete all seven of his pass attempts last week. In two years with Dallas, Weeden has completed 65% of his passes, but he will have to do it without much help.

Indianapolis at Tennessee
NTR – 54.7

Andrew Luck is struggling with accuracy, registering a paltry 54.7% completion rate. Partly, we can look to his career high 5.8% interception rate, over twice his career average (2.5%). With only one drop by the receivers, it is squarely on Luck to right the ship, starting here.

All the talk is on the receiving core but Coby Fleener has a shot to contribute with Dwayne Allen being ruled out for this week. He has caught his only target of the year but he has surpassed 50 catches each of the last two years. The Titans were gashed by Austin Sefarian-Jenkins in week one, Fleener is capable of doing the same if given the opportunity.

Dexter McCluster looked great last week and he could be a sneaky threat this week as well. He had over 120 yards of offense on just 14 touches against the Browns as the game was quickly out of hand at 21-0 in the second quarter. It may happen here as well against a much better offense.

San Diego at Minnesota
NTR – 9.2

The Vikings top three receivers are averaging just 9.2 yards per catch. It’s amazing considering it includes Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, a pair of players known for their deep ball prowess. The Chargers defense has struggled with the deep ball as they have given up the 18th most yards on the sixth fewest attempts. Time to open it up.

Speaking of opening up the deep pass, Philip Rivers is averaging 9.3 yards per attempt, which is the highest of his career. What is more amazing is that he has only attempted three passes more than twenty yards down the field. This speaks to his ability to locate the intermediate pass and put his receivers in a position to gain yards after the catch. Against a team giving up just 5.7 yards per attempt, every inch will count.

The aforementioned Wallace and Johnson will likely see time in the slot this week. Currently, each of them run about 25% of their routes from that position. The issue arrives in the form of Patrick Robinson, the primary slot corner who has allowed just 50% of the targets to be completed. There will be limited opportunities against this secondary so movement may be a key in creating a mismatch.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis
NTR – 53 and 30

Creating first downs will be key for the Rams in this game. They have opportunity as Pittsburgh is worst in the league with 53 first downs given up. However, the Rams have generated just 30 so far, second worst in football. Another statistical conundrum.

Le’Veon Bell is back! Why talk about anyone else? The top running back in dynasty gets a shot at the 30th ranked run defense in yards allowed. Last year, Bell averaged nearly 140 yards from scrimmage each game. I suspect the Rams are in trouble.

As of this writing, Todd Gurley’s status is uncertain. As such, Nick Foles could be leaned on to deliver the efficient, mistake-free game for a third straight week. He has yet to throw an interception and is going against a defense who has failed to generate one. Pittsburgh is bottom five in nearly every pass defense category so Foles should create more offense than his effort against Washington in week two.

Afternoon Games

San Francisco at Arizona
NTR – 3:41

The San Francisco 49ers have the longest average drive time in the NFL at 3:41. That is buoyed by their league leading eight plays per drive, which has helped mask a depleted defense. Against Arizona, the top scoring offense in football, clock control is their best defense.

Another way to keep up with Arizona will be with the arm of Colin Kaepernick. The 69% completion rate is nothing short of shocking and eighth best in the NFL. His ability to avoid costly turnovers (zero interceptions) will be needed against an Arizona defense who has caused three interceptions in the first two weeks.

Carson Palmer may be the best quarterback through two weeks this year. He is tied for the lead in touchdown passes, has just one interception, and has not been sacked this season. San Francisco has five sacks this year but Palmer’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly will put the pressure on the 49ers and their secondary to keep pace.

Chicago at Seattle
NTR – 0

For what is considered a premier defense, the Seahawks have yet to record an interception. They do have four fumble recoveries but they are struggling to generate turnovers. With the state of the Bears, they should have plenty of opportunities to catch a few of the Bears’ passes.

If you want to know who will throw those interceptions, meet Jimmy Clausen. He takes over for the injured Jay Cutler and boasts a 1.4% touchdown rate with an interception rate of 3.0% so the odds are good he hits a Seahawks defender before seeing the end zone. The receiving core of the Bears remains battered so there is little help for the former elite high school prospect.

The story is the return of Kam Chancellor. While secondary players in IDP leagues can be interchangeable, Chancellor is a player who delivers great tackle value (over 100 total last season). With the Bears looking to run and Kam’s physical nature, he could rack up the tackles early to make up for lost time.

Buffalo at Miami
NTR – 75.0

Buffalo’s vaunted run defense has caused teams to lean on the pass, evident by the 75% pass rate through two weeks. They have seen the most pass attempts and the fewest run attempts this season. Add in Miami’s 30th ranked run offense and there is a good chance the Dolphins maintain that high pass percentage for Buffalo’s defense.

The talk of Sammy Watkins’ demise was premature after a six catch performance including his first touchdown of the season. Brent Grimes has looked good this year (allowing just five catches on 12 targets) so Watkins could struggle if the team decides to shadow him. I expect Buffalo to move him around in an attempt to generate better matchups.

With the tendency to pass in this game and other key options ailing, DeVante Parker could continue to see more time. The rookie went from one snap to 17 in week two so the Dolphins are becoming more confident in him. Buffalo has allowed five passing touchdowns in the first two weeks alone so Parker could manage his first NFL touchdown catch.

Sunday Night Game

Denver at Detroit
NTR – 21.6

Here’s a surprise, Denver has averaged the shortest drive length this season at just 21.6 yards. Fortunately, their defense is first in this same statistic, holding teams to just 20.3 yards per drive. This could be a real battle for field position if both teams struggle to move the ball effectively.

With rumors of an unofficial timeshare, I will be monitoring C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman closely. Both are talented backs and the Lions have given up the most rushing attempts (72) and tied for most rushing touchdowns (four) allowed this year. This could be a game where both thrive and produce fantasy value.

With the top pass defense in the NFL, the Broncos will likely see their own abundance of running plays. While Ameer Abdullah was neglected in week two, just seven touches, the team needs to call his number to have any chance in this one. The Broncos are a league average run defense so it would be foolish for the team to not prioritize the run over the pass.

Monday Night Game

Kansas City at Green Bay
NTR – 4

Outside of Maclin, Albert Wilson is the only other wide receiver targeted this year with four total. That means of Alex Smith’s 58 attempts, less than 7% go to wide receivers not named Jeremy Maclin. It is not just the touchdowns to wide receivers that is startling, it is their lack of involvement in the pass game overall.

While the pass game is important, Jamaal Charles steers this offensive ship. He is averaging 18.5 carries per game and faces the second worst run defense in total yards and yards per carry allowed. It is pretty easy to connect the dots here. Charles could have a massive week and no one will remember the lack of wide receiver targets.

Rookie Ty Montgomery saw some action last week, targeted four times and catching them all for 37 yards. With the Chiefs defense doing a great job of limiting time of possession (second lowest average time per drive), the running game and options like Montgomery will be needed to generate first downs and wear the defense down. With Eddie Lacy hurting, it will be all hands on deck in this one.

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