Contrarian Plays: Week Three
Oof. We took an absolute beating with most of our picks in week two, but let’s take a quick look to see what worked and what didn’t.
Eli Manning put up 18.68 for not quite 2.5x his salary of $8,000. A bigger day was there but a costly fumble cost the Giants a win and DFS owners some much needed points. Nick Foles was even worse with just 150 passing yards and one touchdown against Washington. The good news for us is Foles has a great matchup in week three.
Frank Gore was perhaps the biggest disappointment of the day, scoring only 7.1 points for our $7,000. He had two big runs called back due to holding penalties, though, and had a good chance to get a touchdown late before fumbling away the game and our lineups. The takeaway here is Gore he ran well against a good defense. Darren Sproles didn’t do us any favors either putting up just 5.9 points for $5,600. The Eagles offense looked horrible in week two and Sproles suffered.
Andy Dalton spread the ball around against the Chargers, so none of his receivers had more than five targets – that included A.J. Green who caught four of his five targets for 45 yards and a touchdown. Green is playing well but the targets just have not been there yet this season. We were hoping for at least 24 points for our $8,100 but fell short with just 14.5. Speaking of falling short, Mike Evans put up a goose egg against the Saints on just three targets while teammate Vincent Jackson got us 14.4 points on three catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. The volume just wasn’t there for the passing game in a matchup where we thought the Saints offense would put up some points but instead fell completely flat. James Jones only caught one pass, but it went for a 29-yard touchdown – not quite enough to pay for his $5,400 salary.
Jared Cook was the receiving leader for the Rams in week two, but his five receptions for 47 yards just wasn’t enough to cover $5,200. I love “Robocop” (Dwayne Allen), but the guy just can’t stay on the field. He suffered an ankle injury before giving us any production for our lineups.
Phew. Reviewing week two was brutal, but like great quarterbacks, we have to have a short term memory when it comes to days like these and continue to fire away. There’s enormous risk with this column and we knew that from the start. Let’s get into week three.
Quarterback
Nick Foles $6,500
Foles looks like a great budget play this week. He is playing at home against a Steelers defense that produced the fantasy QB1 (Brady) and fantasy QB4 (Kaepernick) so far this season. The Steelers secondary is one of the worst in the league and combining that with one of the best offenses in the league creates a unique opportunity for opposing quarterbacks. Needing only 13-19.5 points to pay off his salary, Foles is my favorite contrarian quarterback play of week three.
Andrew Luck $9,000
After two subpar weeks in a row, the crowd is likely to be off of the Colts offense in week three. I expect the Colts to have a “get right” kind of game in week three against the division rival Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis has played two of the best defenses in the league to open the 2015 season and it has left a bad taste in a lot of fantasy owners mouths – use that to your advantage this week in GPPs by building a lineup with an Andrew Luck based stack.
Running Back
Frank Gore $7,000
I know, I know. Gore for a third week in a row? They say there is a fine line between genius and madness. I hope this makes me look like the former. Hear me out – Gore looked good running the ball last week against the stout Jets defense. Early in the game he had two very nice 10-15 yard runs called back due to holding penalties and later fumbled at the goal line. Had those long runs stuck and had Gore not fumbled then we would be talking about him in a different light this week. If he looks good against a defense as good as the Jets then he should be great against the Titans. Gore once again feels pretty safe.
Ameer Abdullah $6,000
The Lions are still limiting Abdullah’s touches but against the Broncos in week three I believe that could change. Joique Bell isn’t getting the job done and will have a very tough time against the Denver run defense. Abdullah makes a ton of sense because he can create running lanes for himself with his elite short area quickness and burst. Assuming rational coaching, Abdullah should see a spike in his workload in week three and be a real value for us on Fanduel.
C.J. Anderson $7,300
This is a prove it week for Anderson. Whether it’s the toe injury he suffered in week one, the new offense, or something else entirely, there is no doubt he has disappointed through two weeks and has been outplayed by Ronnie Hillman. Anderson is still the starter for now but with another poor performance, we could see a changing of the guard. I think Anderson rebounds nicely this week against the Lions who have been terrible against the run. This is another player the crowds are going to be off of because of what’s happened so far this season and those are the exact kind of players we want in our GPP lineups.
Wide Receiver
John Brown $6,000
After Larry FItzgerald’s huge three touchdown game in week two all the attention is going to be on him – that leaves us with a great contrarian play in Brown. What the crowds likely missed is Brown has played just as well as Fitzgerald. Against the Bears last week, Brown drew two long pass interference penalties which set up touchdowns for his teammates. Antonio Brown lit up the Niners secondary in week two. I don’t expect John to have the same results as Antonio, but I do think he is in line for a very good fantasy performance and it should come with a relatively low ownership percentage.
Allen Hurns $5,100
Bill Belichick and the Patriots love to take away the best weapon on the opposing offense. This week, that weapon is Allen Robinson. With Robinson locked up and the Jaguars likely to be playing from behind, Hurns should see more targets than usual. He makes for a great punt play at receiver and will help differentiate your lineup from the masses.
James Jones $5,700
Jones’ price hasn’t yet caught up to his actual value yet as he is still $700 cheaper than Davante Adams. More action should once again be on Adams but the smart money will be on Jones. Last week, Jamell Fleming gave up nine receptions for 123 yards and a touchdown to Broncos receivers. In week three he will be covering James Jones. Pass on Adams in favor of Jones in your Aaron Rodgers stacks for week three
Darrius Heyward-Bey $5,300
The Steelers really, really, really want DHB to be Martavis Bryant until the real deal is back in a couple of weeks. In the meantime, he has shown us he still has the deep speed that somehow made him the seventh overall pick and the first receiver taken in the 2009 NFL draft. If he can avoid the drops in week three he should have an opportunity for another long touchdown against the Rams in a game Vegas predicts to be the second highest scoring game of the week.
Tight End
Crockett Gillmore $5,400
Rob Gronkowski was not the highest scoring fantasy tight end in week two. Know who was? That’s right, it was Crockett Gillmore. Despite his great performance against the Raiders, Gillmore is still far from a household name. What he is, though, is the number two passing option in the Ravens’ passing offense. Gillmore should see a healthy amount of targets again in week three.
Gary Barnidge $4,500
Who? Yes, this is an absolute punt play, so understand the gamble you are taking by putting Barnidge in your lineup. I do, however, see a scenario in which it could pay off and if it does your lineup will get a big boost in GPPs because no one else is going to be on him. In back-to-back weeks the Raiders’ defense has produced TE1 and TE2 overall for the opposing offense. Last week the aforementioned Gillmore was the top scoring tight end and in week one they hosted the breakout party for Tyler Eifert. They say one week in the NFL is an aberration but two weeks is a trend. Does the tight end facing the Raiders become a stud for the third week in a row? If so it’s going to have to be Gary Barnidge that makes it happen.
Kicker
From here on out I won’t be making kicker picks anymore. Just pick the cheapest option on a high scoring team playing indoors each week and hope it works out.
DST
Cleveland Browns $4,600
If you can fit them into your lineups, then by all means put the Seahawks DST in your lineup. If you’d like to save some cash, consider the Browns who are $700 cheaper than the Seahawks. The Browns defensive unit is starting to gel and this week they get a west coast team with an inexperienced and inaccurate quarterback. I love playing defenses against west coast teams traveling east for an early game. The Browns check all the boxes in week three.
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Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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