Rookie Report Card: Willie Snead and Matt Jones

Dan Meylor

jonesnead
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover at least two rookies (or in this case, first year players) in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2015 potential and long term upside.

The series continues with a look at Matt Jones and Willie Snead.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Matt Jones, RB WAS
Week Two Stats: 19 carries, 123 rushing yards, two touchdowns, three receptions and 23 receiving yards

mattjonesComing out of college, Jones was an interesting running back prospect due to his rare size (6’-2”, 231 pounds) for the position, but some flaws in his game gave many pause when considering him as a potential lead back on Sundays. Jones’ film from his days on the campus at of the University of Florida shows a flashy, but inconsistent tailback.

Very gritty and determined around the line of scrimmage, it was difficult for college defenders to bring down Jones as he regularly broke arm tackles and powered through defenders who didn’t square up against him. Also showing impressive burst at the snap of the ball – particularly for a player with his size – Jones displayed the ability to accelerate and hit a hole quickly and without any wasted movement. He excelled on dive plays and power runs where he wasn’t expected to make defenders miss.

Although many running backs struggle to pass protect in the college game, Jones had no trouble facing oncoming blitzers and excelled at squaring up and stonewalling pass rushers rather than diving at their legs in an attempt to undercut them. The ability to pas protect coming out of college would no doubt assist him in getting on the field early in his career which appealed to fantasy owners.

Despite the quick first step and his powerful running style between the tackles, many (myself included) were skeptical of Jones’ potential to contribute as anything more than a rotational tailback in the NFL.

The most glaring hole in Jones’ game is a lack of patience and vision. Typically, downhill runners will look for cutback opportunities but that simply isn’t a strength for Jones as he seldom veers off the play design before reaching the linebackers.   Often running into the backs of his own offensive lineman and churning forward in an attempt to push the pile rather than staying patient and waiting for a seam to develop, he showed very limited field awareness while in college.

Another weakness for Jones is his lack of perimeter skills. Although his burst is good, he’s far more explosive as a north and south runner and lacks the ability to get to the edge and make defenders miss without losing speed. Overall, his abilities outside the tackles are limited unless the play is blocked perfectly and he doesn’t have to shake tacklers.

On top of his limitations caused by lack of vision and as a stretch runner, Jones also received low grades coming out of college as a pass catcher but much of that could be attributed to lack of use in that capacity while at Florida. When he was called upon, he was able to make a catch and turn up field.

Posting relatively ordinary combine numbers that included a 4.61 40-yard dash time, a 31.5 inch vertical jump and 20 bench press reps, Jones didn’t move up my draft board. Needless to say, I was surprised to see Jones get selected late in the third round by the Redskins.

Jones immediately became one of the poster boys of the draft class for the age old “situation versus talent debate.” Because he landed in Washington and only had Alfred Morris – who is in the final year of his contract – ahead of him on the depth chart, many dynasty owners saw Jones as a high upside rookie due to his potential to see playing time early. When he ran for 139 yards and a score on 20 carries (6.95 yards per carry) during the preseason, the hype train gained even more momentum.

Since then, things haven’t slowed down.

After getting just six touches and playing only 10 snaps in week one against the Dolphins, Jones was featured for much of Washington’s week two win against the Rams. In fact, he was on the field for 34 of the Redskins’ offensive plays which was just three fewer than Morris. He also touched the ball 22 times, compared to 20 for the veteran.

Needless to say, the hype train may get out of control now. But should it? After watching every carry by Jones so far this year (including the pre-season), I’m still not convinced.

Although Jones has looked good to this point and his numbers looked extraordinary on Sunday, he still looks like the same tailback I saw at Florida and I have a difficult time not giving equal credit to the Washington offensive line for the impressive showing in week two.

On Jones’ first touchdown, he blasted off left guard for a 39-yard score. Although the run took good burst from the tailback, the blocking was nearly perfect as guard Shawn Lauvao pulled and executed a crushing kick out block and center Cory Lichtensteiger made a brilliant seal block on the edge. Nobody came close to touching Jones on the run. The same happened on a 25-yard run in the second quarter where due to superb blocking – a Rams defender didn’t get within five yards of him until he was nearly 20 yards downfield.

The truth is that for much of the game, Jones got to second level of the defense without having to make a defender miss and without getting touched – that’s unlikely to be the case most of the time.

As I mentioned earlier, Jones looks like the same runner he was while in college. He’s quick off the line of scrimmage, can break tackles and has the power necessary to move a pile, but also lacks the patience and vision – which was also evident on more than one occasion in week two – to be a relied upon runner fulltime.

While I have no doubt Jones can be productive in the short term as long as the Redskins’ offensive line continues to dominate like they did against St. Louis, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve seen his best game of the year. Dynasty owners expecting Jones to be a weekly RB2 or flex play may be asking too much without an injury to Morris.

At best, Jones in a timeshare in a below-average offense for 2015, which rarely turns into fantasy gold. Looking further down the road, he simply lacks the skills necessary to be a full-time runner. I’d be surprised if develops into anything more than a mid-RB2 in 12-team leagues. Most likely, he’ll peak in the range that Morris was coming into the season. And that’s if he ever has the backfield to himself.

I don’t have Jones on a dynasty roster but if I did, I’d happily move him to a smitten owner willing to overpay for a more established player or one with a brighter upside.

Rookie Report Card
Player: Matt Jones
Performance To Date 2015 Potential Long Term Upside
B- B B+

 

Willie Snead, WR NO
Week Two Stats: four receptions, 44 yards and one touchdown on six targets

I know, I know. Snead isn’t technically a rookie but I wanted a chance to write about him, so here goes.

In all honesty, I knew very little about Snead before the preseason. A quick google search showed that he went to Ball State, caught 106 passes for 1,516 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2013, went undrafted after declaring eligible a year early and was signed by the Browns before getting released. He then went to Carolina before ending up in New Orleans late last year.

Snead caught my eye in the preseason when he caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. He displayed good route running, getting out of his breaks crisply while looking incredibly smooth reacting to the ball in the air. Making countless contested catches, he showed very good hands and the ability to play physically despite his lack of ideal size.

Not only did Snead win a roster spot with his play throughout training camp, he also earned a role in the Saints’ offense that looks to be growing. In week one against the Cardinals, he played just 18 of 74 snaps (24.3%), running 13 routes and catching one pass for 63 yards. On Sunday, he played 40 or 78 snaps (51.3%) and ran 24 routes, grabbing four of seven targets for 44 yards and a score.

All things considered, Snead has looked good in his limited playing time and seems to be gaining chemistry with Drew Brees. Outside of Brandin Cooks, a case can be made he’s been the most impressive receiver so far this year for the Saints, who are in desperate need of playmakers at the position.

While Snead’s short-term upside is very much tied to Brees’ health, his name is certainly one to keep in mind going forward for dynasty owners in leagues with deep rosters. He likely won’t ever turn into anything more than a WR3/flex consideration in full-PPR leagues only, but with an awful defense in New Orleans and an elite quarterback (if he’s healthy) who likes to use his slot receivers, he may be worth a roster spot.

There’s no doubt he’s a free agent in all leagues that don’t roster nearly every player in the league. So at the cheap price of free, Snead’s worth adding to the end of your bench – at least for a week or two until we know more about his usage.

Rookie Report Card
Player: Willie Snead
Performance To Date 2015 Potential Long Term Upside
C- C C

[/am4show]

dan meylor