Contrarian Daily Plays: Week Two

Matt Price

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Before we get to the week two contrarian plays, let’s take a look at how our week one picks worked out.

At the quarterback position, Jay Cutler let us down with only 12 points at a cost of $8,100. 1.48x his salary isn’t going to get it done in cash games or GPPs. Andy Dalton at $7,100, however, did pay for us by scoring 18.86 points for 2.65x his salary. There were more points there for him, but A.J. Green dropped a touchdown pass that hit him in the hands.

Frank Gore looked good early in the game, but ended up as a huge disappointment with only 4.1 points for $7,500. Note to self: Buffalo is a bad matchup for our contrarian plays. Danny Woodhead, however, won us some money this week, scoring 20.2 points for only $6,000 – s payoff of 3.37x his salary.

The aforementioned Green let us down as a contrarian play at wide receiver, largely because of that dropped touchdown. In the end, he only gave us 8.8 points for our $8,300. So close, yet so far. In the most bizarre game of the week, Terrance Williams chipped in 8.5 points for $5,300. We need more than 1.6x his salary to consider that a successful pick. Our budget play at wide receiver, Allen Hurns at $4,600, was the most productive Jacksonville receiver but that only netted us 8.5 points, good for just 1.8x his salary.

Tight ends in the bargain price range are generally complete crapshoots, so I’m not surprised neither of our picks paid off. Larry Donnell appeared to be a value in a high scoring matchup, but was only targeted four times – he caught three for 21 yards. Ben Watson with three catches for 19 yards isn’t helping anyone out but he did see more work than preseason darling Josh Hill who didn’t get a single target. The logic was sound with Arizona being terrible against tight ends and Watson running with the first team all off-season, but it just didn’t work out for us this week.

Our kicker, Josh Lambo, paid off at 2x his salary but the Jacksonville defense did not due to allowing 20 points to the Panthers while only netting one interception and two sacks.

Let’s get into week two!

Quarterback

Eli Manning – $8,000

Eli had a pretty subpar game week one in Dallas but relief in the form of the Atlanta Falcons comes to New York in week two. The Falcons defense is still not very good. In week one at home, they ceded over 300 yards and a touchdown through the air to Sam Bradford. Look for Eli and the Giants offense to rebound at home in week two

Nick Foles – $6,500

Foles looked like an actual NFL starting quarterback during week one in an extremely tough matchup against the Seahawks. He lost a fumble on a blindside hit that turned into a defensive touchdown for Seattle, but otherwise played well. In week two, the Rams travel to Washington for a much better matchup. At his price point, Foles should easily pay off his salary as one of the lowest priced starting quarterbacks in week two.

Running Back

Frank Gore – $7,000

The entire Colts offense looked out of synch in Buffalo week one, but I expect the Bills defense will be a matchup we are looking to avoid all season. Gore looked good on his opening carries but suffered from calf cramps that caused him to miss a series. After that, he didn’t look quite the same and the Bills had a sizeable lead that took the game script away from Gore. After his disappointing performance, most owners will be off Gore in week two. While the matchup against the Jets on Monday night isn’t a great one, they are at home as a favorite. I expect Gore to get back on track this week. Use the matchup and his poor week one performance to add some uniqueness to your lineup in GPPs.

Darren Sproles – $5,600

After watching the Eagles offense on Monday night, I really think Sproles is essentially their WR3. maybe even their WR2 in terms of catches and targets. Both DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews looked slow to me and while the two of them will have more touchdown upside each week, Sproles has the ability to gain more yards and certainly more receptions. It seems weird to call Sproles a high floor player but I honestly think five or six targets a week in the passing game is his absolute floor.

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Wide Receiver

A.J. Green – $8,100

If Green hadn’t dropped a touchdown pass last week he would have worked out for us – we are going back to the well again in week two. Despite playing at home this week, Green still received a $200 discount on his week one price. Green is going to want to make up for his touchdown drop, do look for him to get at least one score against the Chargers in the game Vegas predicts to be the third highest scoring game of the week.

Mike Evans – $8,100

Keep an eye on the injury report, but if Evans plays in week two, consider him in your lineups. After the debacle against the Titans, casual fans will be off the Bucs in week two. They are playing on the road but it’s against a Saints secondary who just gave up 300 yards and three touchdowns to Carson Palmer. Until Keenan Lewis returns to the field, we should be targeting players on passing offenses going against the Saints. If Evans is on the field, I believe there is a better than average chance he has a receiving touchdown.

Vincent Jackson – $7,200

See Evans, except cheaper. Jackson made an amazing catch in the end zone that should have been called a touchdown but wasn’t. For whatever reason, the Bucs decided not to challenge the call on the field. Expect production from Jackson this week against that porous secondary.

James Jones – $5,400

I don’t think the fantasy community in general has caught up to the fact Jones is the receiver who will fill the Jordy Nelson role, not Davante Adams. That fact is reflected in the $1,000 price difference between the two. This week, the Packers get the Seahawks at home. DFS players will generally be off of the Packers because of that matchup but it’s at home and they are favorites in a game projected to be the third highest scoring game of week two. If they are on a Packers wide receiver, it’s likely to be one of the other two, so use Jones instead to add uniqueness to your lineup.

Tight End

Jared Cook – $5,200

It’s certainly possible Cook had one of his patented “get everyone excited” type of games in week one and will disappear into the ether like he always does, but Nick Foles gave him the second most targets on the team. He caught five of those six targets for 85 yards and it appeared he and Foles may have something going.

Dwayne Allen – $5,200

Robocop out targeted Coby Fleener six to one and pulled in a touchdown against the Bills in week one. As fierce as the Jets D is, they are actually pretty poor against the tight end. In 2014, they gave up 14 touchdowns to tight ends. The Colts should be looking to right the ship on Monday night after getting trounced by the Bills in week one.

Kicker

Zach Hocker – $4,500

A minimally priced kicker, a potentially high scoring offense and the Saints playing at home in the dome? Hocker checks all the boxes in week.

DST

Pittsburgh – $4,200

This defense didn’t look outstanding in week one, but in week two the Niners come to town. The San Francisco offense, especially Carlos Hyde, looked very good in week one. Now they have to travel across the country on a very short week for an early game against the Steelers. If the Steelers get out to a big lead, it could be a long day for a San Francisco team not built to play from behind.

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matt price