Lastin’ Martin

Austan Kas Posted On September 6, 2015

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Perhaps no player in the past three years has seen his value fluctuate more wildly than Doug Martin.

In 2013, after a scintillating rookie season, Martin was one of the first players off the board in dynasty startup drafts. We once published a story (which looks hilarious now), debating whether Martin or Trent Richardson was the better choice at No. 1 overall. At the time, it was a perfectly justifiable and reasonable debate.

Martin, Richardson and No. 1 overall in the same sentence, just two summers ago. It’s a reminder how dramatically things can change in this crazy game of football (and to run from running backs like the bubonic plague at least until round three).

Richardson ran into a wall that 2013 season and is still standing there, confused, staring at that wall. Martin ran into the same wall, got as equally as confused, but has started to look like he may have found a path around said wall. His value may be gearing up for another swing, this time in the positive direction.

Baby Steps

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martin2 It’s worth noting it wasn’t just poor on-field performance which led to Martin’s steep decline. It certainly played a role, but injuries zapped his opportunity, as well as some of his ability. After playing all 16 games as a rookie, Martin missed ten games in 2013 (shoulder) and five more in 2014 (knee and ankle).

Martin is healthy and has started to show glimpses of the back who ran for 1,454 and 11 touchdowns in his first campaign this preseason. Through three games, he totaled 118 yards and a score on 18 carries, good for a yards-per-carry clip of 5.9. The rookie-year Martin exploded for big plays and the current version of Martin now owns a 19-yard run and a 30-yarder in limited action this preseason.

Stats from the preseason have some meaning, but preseason numbers can be misleading for a variety of reasons with which we’re all familiar. What’s more important than the stats is how Martin has looked. He looks fast, explosive and elusive — three antonyms of his play from most of 2013 and 2014.

At Boise State and in his debut season with Tampa Bay, Martin’s running style — how he’d bounce off would-be tacklers, slither through tiny creases, seem to always end runs by falling forward — reminded me of Ray Rice. I’ve seen it this preseason.

More than anything, to me, it looks like he’s running ticked off. Martin is running extremely hard. He’s playing at a different speed than everyone else on the field and he’s in a contract year.

Truth be told, Martin started showing flashes of respectability towards the end of last season. Over the final three games of 2014, Martin averaged 73 yards and 4.7 yards per carry. Yes, three games is a small sample size, but it was a sign of life in a two-year stretch riddled with death and despair.

Reason For Optimism

In Martin’s defense, the Buccaneers’ offense has been a Miley Cyrus-level disaster for the majority of his career. In 2012, he lined up behind a still-decent Josh Freeman. In 2013, Freeman started his time in the witness protection program, which put Mike Glennon and Josh McCown under center for Tampa Bay. In that time, Tampa Bay finished 25th (2013) and dead last (2014) in passing yards per game.

Not only did the complete absence of a respectable passing game mean defenses were able to zero in on Martin, it meant the Buccaneers trips to the red zone — where running backs, obviously, have the best chance to score — were scarce.

Martin’s numbers tell the story to the fullest. After an 11-touchdown rookie year, he rushed for just three — three! — scores combined the last two seasons. That’s not a recipe for fantasy success for any running back.

The Tampa Bay offense isn’t going to be confused with the Colts, Broncos or Packers anytime soon, but the Buccaneers should be better in 2015. It starts with Jameis Winston, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Like most rookie quarterbacks, he’ll probably struggle, but he can’t be much worse than the 22-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio — and 176 passing yards per game — Tampa Bay quarterbacks posted a season ago. Plus, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins give Winston pass-catching options which are better than what most rookies are handed.

Martin provides a solid receiving weapon out of the backfield, too. In his monster rookie year, he amassed 49 grabs for 472 yards. Winston will have at his disposal two reliable wideouts, an athletic tight end and a sure-handed weapon out of the backfield.

Current Price

Following his rookie-year bonanza, you could have received a small country if you put Martin on the trading block. A year later, there were plenty of people willing to buy low on him. After a poor 2014, he became a sell high option — as in sell him while someone will give you anything back. After two years of dismal production, his price tag was as low as it’s ever been. Late last season, you may have been able to deal him for a buy one, get one free Big Mac coupon.

His ADP in January startups, according to our data, was as the RB22. After a solid preseason, it’d make sense to see his ADP rise, but the opposite has happened. His ADP in August startups had slipped to the 30th running back off the board, even falling outside of the Top 100 picks in some drafts. Though we also should not the January ADP didn’t include the shiny new rookies like Todd Gurley, Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon.

He’s being valued much differently in re-draft leagues, as his ADP has shot up two full rounds since June, with him currently being taken early in the fourth round (RB20), according to Fantasy Football Calculator.

All that to say Martin’s price tag is so cheap right now, it’s well worth the gamble — even if Martin completely flops. In a startup, it doesn’t hurt much to whiff on an eighth-round pick and his price tag in trades can’t be too steep.

Martin probably won’t ever replicate the production from his rookie year, but I do envision him still being a serviceable back in fantasy. The time to buy is now, before he puts starts producing when the games actually count. If he has a solid first month, his price tag will be considerably more expensive.

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