Every off-season there are players who become devalued in the fantasy football community for little to no reason. I think it’s because we talk about this stuff year round and get bored. I also think this is what happened in regards to the perceived decline of Calvin Johnson. Granted, 2014 had its stretch of rough patches while he dealt with a bum ankle, but in the 11 healthy games he played and wasn’t merely a decoy, he managed to rack up 68 receptions for 1,058 yards and eight touchdowns. If you extrapolate those numbers out over an entire season he would have finished with 99 receptions for 1,538 yards and 11.5 touchdowns.
Let’s put the over/under for Megatron’s 2015 season at 80 receptions for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns. I’ll take the over.
Over the last seven seasons, no wide receiver with at least five years experience has averaged more fantasy points in PPR leagues than Calvin Johnson with 284.49 per season, 26 more than Brandon Marshall in second place. Only Dez Bryant (.75 touchdowns per game) has averaged more touchdowns than Megatron’s .67 per game. Outside of known PPR superstars, Marshall and Wes Welker, Calvin is near the top in total receptions as well.
That is every awesome feat he’s accomplished in the past seven seasons, but we don’t get fantasy points for a sweet resume’. He’ll turn 30 years old at the end of September and he’s coming off a season where he was dealing with nagging lower leg injuries, so why should we invest heavily in him now? Quite simply, 30 isn’t the death sentence for wide receivers like it is for running backs. Elite wide receivers can maintain their level of play past age 35 and there isn’t any good reason to believe Calvin’s production will drop significantly.
[inlinead]In Matthew Stafford, he has one of the league’s most fearless gunslingers willing to throw him the ball no matter the coverage. It’s not always the best for Stafford’s game but Calvin wins a lot more of those than he loses. For the first time in his career, he has a legitimate running mate in Golden Tate, who he himself proved plenty capable of being the team’s WR1 when Calvin went down with injury. According to Evan Silva at Rotoworld, “Tate’s 16 game pace stats in the five games Calvin Johnson was limited in or missed last season were 125 receptions, 1,917 yards and ten touchdowns. In the 11 games where Megatron played at full tilt, Tate’s pace stats were 87 receptions, 1,065 and two touchdowns.” Yet people still don’t give Tate the respect he deserves. The Lions also have promising second year pass catching tight end Eric Ebron to draw more attention away from the outside by busting the seam and the whole team has a season of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense under their belts as well. And don’t forget they have everyone’s preseason darling, rookie running back Ameer Abdullah, coming out of the backfield. This offense has a legitimate weapon at every level on offense. They also only face four top-10 pass defenses based on last year’s stats and favorably have St. Louis, New Orleans and San Francisco in the fantasy playoffs.
The Lions defensive front also took a massive blow this off-season when Ndamukong Suh signed with Miami and Nick Fairley left for St. Louis. Signing Haloti Ngata was nice but he’s not single handedly replacing the play of Suh and Fairley. This defense is going to put the Lions in a lot of high scoring contests and nobody abuses garbage time quite like Stafford and Johnson. Think back to week eight of the 2013 season against Dallas when Stafford and Johnson hooked up 14 times for a mind boggling 329 yards and a score. When they’re in sync, he’s practically unstoppable.
In Ryan McDowell’s latest mock draft data, Johnson was being selected 14th overall, tenth among wide receivers, with an average draft position of 13.67, down from 2.17 last August. It’s hard to call someone being selected at the top of the second round a value, but I would take him over Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffery, two receivers being taken just ahead of him because I believe Calvin has the ability to finish as the WR1 and Cobb and Jeffery simply do not.
What do you think? Will Calvin Johnson finish “over” or “under” 80 receptions for 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns? Let me know in the comments below or tweet me @OlingerIDP.
Where do you stand? Would you take the over or the under on receptions (80), yards (1,300) and touchdowns (12).
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A ways back in 2008 I acquired an awful orphan team. Since then I have had much trouble re-building. I’ve had Marshawn Lynch along for the ride but outside of that I have had trouble striking gold. I was the first guy on Jimmy Graham, but traded him just before he broke out, and that is my past 7 years summed up into one decision. But after all this time I think I’ve finally met my goal. This is my roster:
QB: Drew Brees, Nick Foles
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman
WR: Keenan Allen, Jarvis Landry, Allen Robinson, Charles Johnson, John Brown, Martavis Bryant
TE: Travis Kelce
K: Cody Parkey
DEF: I currently don’t own one
Our draft is coming up and right now I only own the 28th overall pick, and will have to claim two players off waivers, so there is still 3 roster spots to be filled
So does anyone else think I am ready to compete for the Super Bowl after hustling for scraps the past 7 years?
If this is a standard PPR QRRWWWFDK then I think you can definitely make the playoffs. But I would bet even without looking at the other rosters that you aren’t the favorite to win it all. Which is ok because all you have to do is make the playoffs. After that, anything can happen once you’re in.
It’s non PPR, standard starting lineup (1qb,2rb,2wr,1te) plus 1 flex (so i can start all of my top 3 RBs)
My concern in a non-PPR league is your wide receivers aren’t big touchdown scorers. I think they’ll be quite a few weeks where they let you down unless Keenan Allen or Jarvis Landry take that next step. Like SRJ said though, you have a playoff ready roster, after that anything is possible.
I agree but out of all those WR they are all being talked up and are the breakout candidates this year. You’d would have to figure at least two of them take the next step and reach their potential
I say Calvin goes over those numbers and finishes in the top 5 in PPR
I need some advice if you have the time!
I am in win now mode in a 12 team ppr Superflex and I have a chance to trade Gore ( my fourth RB) forJordy, but I have to swap next yrs late first for the other owners mid second! Fair of too much?
If you’re in win now mode I wouldn’t trade Gore for a wide receiver who just blew his knee out. I would hold Gore until the season starts and try to flip him for a wide receiver after he has a couple solid weeks.
Follow up to the Jordy question- I don’t need a WR- I am pretty set there- I was just thinking that Jordy might still have 2-3 great yrs left and I could get him on the cheap by letting my fourth RB go and dropping down 6-7 spots in next yrs draft! I have heard a lot of talk about Herron and Robinson and fear Gore might not be starting in week 7 on! Any more thoughts are appreciated!
I’m with Eric on this one. While I like the idea of selling high on Gore and buying low on Jordy, Gore could be instrumental in winning a championship this year.
If you have frank gore as your RB4 it seems like a win now kind of team to me
Sounds like a vet taking advantage. #. 1wr on a great offense happened to have had a common injury. It’s not an Achilles or a Willis McGahee after all. Best time to have the injury is now so there will be a full recovery this time next year
Nothing wrong with taking advantage imo. You never know what deals will go down unless you ask. If the OP already has a rep for throwing lowball offers around, he has nothing to lose.
I like the trade, I think it’s good value but if you’re in win now mode I would rather keep as many movable assets as possible so you can maneuver during the season if need be.
Like I said though, I think the trade is solid if you want to do it.
I’ve been lurking in the forums for a while now and I want to get something off my chest. I absolutely hate everything that comes out of Fantasy Freak’s mouth. He and I don’t see ANYTHING eye to eye. Nothing against you as a person but your opinions always run contrary to my own. I hope you lose every game this season and your players bust. Now that that is out of the way, one more order of business. STOP using the comments section to get your selfish team questions answered. Go to the forums for that. Now, to the topic, will I go over 80, 1,300, and 12. Yes. Yes. And yes. Matthew Stafford is a perennial 4,000 yard passer. What makes this year (our second year in this offense any different?) He will easily exceed 4,000 yards and I will finish as the type receiver in every category (for my team). I will play 16 games and shut all the doubters’ big fat mouths. I am tired of being underestimatedby the fantasy community. Wait until you see what I have cooking…
Forgive the typos. I’m texting and working out at the same time.
LMAOOOOOOO. This was hilarious hahahahahahahahahaha
What questions, exactly? Care to use some evidence? Sorry Calvin, but your washed up and it’s tough to see eye to eye with somebody who wears a tinted visor all the time…..While you use the word “hate”, I use the word “love”. I will continue to love pissing you off. Stop lurking, be a man, and start voicing your own opinion. Maybe you should move out of your mothers basement, I think that would be good for you.
Your Inane and unfounded accusations make me laugh, just like the fact your team has never won a thing! I use the team advice forum for my question, and I think your mom is calling you up to dinner!
Also, it’s not actually coming out of my mouth. I, unlike you, don’t need simultaneously speak everything I’m typing, because my brain actually works.
Smack talk! Bring it!
You’re washed up. My editor has corrected me…..Golden Tate is looking damn good, hope you bring your A game!
Also Calvin, I disagree. If you hate, and disagree with everything I say, then I would argue that you DO have something against me as a person, and I’m fine with that. I personally couldn’t care less about you, so don’t sugar coat it, bud.
One more thing. So if we don’t see “ANYTHING eye to eye”, you are saying you are taking the “under” on the reception total?
I know this type of thing might be difficult for your brain to process, in your advancing years, Calvin, but try and make some sense, will you. You expect to go over 1300 yards, and 12 TD’s on less than 80 receptions?
I’m sorry, I hate to go on, but I really like Indian food, do you perhaps have that cooking?
Tron will easily go over.. I’m sayin 110/1700/15 which should be good for WR3 this year because I’ll be breaking his receiving record. 2000yds coming up. Get yo popcorn ready.
Under. See: Knees
Side note: Where did you have Larry Fitz in 2012?
The ride is nearly over.
Tell em freak. I’m STILL the best player in NFL history!
Mid-season last year, I traded Megatron (drafted him as a rookie) for Brees and Kelce. I already took the under.