Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less, you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis. Let’s take a look at this week’s hot topics.
The hot name of the week everyone has been speculating over is Buffalo’s own Tyrod Taylor. I actually wrote about The Buffalo Quarterback Conundrum earlier this month and it appears to be playing out how I originally suggested. EJ Manuel is the clear loser in this band of misfits as he lacks the experience of Matt Cassel and the mobility options of Taylor. The fantasy community at large appears enamored with Tyrod’s potential to run for fantasy points but split on if he can actually be a starting quarterback.
Unless he has a disastrous display in Week 3, this is Tyrod’s job. There is no sound logic to go with either of the other two.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) August 21, 2015
Before anyone gets too hyped about Tyrod Taylor, be aware the Browns have EIGHT DBs inactive tonight. Not exactly regular season competition
— Joshua (@LakeTwoQBs) August 21, 2015
Tyrod Taylor is going to put up fantasy numbers…just sayin’
— Matt Williamson (@WilliamsonNFL) August 21, 2015
Bills head coach Rex Ryan has said he will not be making a decision on which quarterback will start week one until his team takes the field. Most assume though that whoever starts the third preseason game will be the odds on favorite. From a fantasy perspective, Taylor is starting to be accounted for as he has made his way onto the DLF QB ranks within the last two weeks. Of course he falls right between Sean Mannion and Logan Thomas, so there’s nothing really to get excited about. As of writing this, I still assume Rex will lean with the veteran in Cassel to start the season. Playing the Colts, Patriots at the Dolphins and Giants, though, is not a great outlook to start the year. Witnessing the Bills in two preseason appearances, this has the makings of a team starting 0-3 and Taylor could quickly be called upon to attempt to right the ship. If that is the case, Tyrod could definitely offer a higher fantasy floor than Cassel due to points from rushing, but he would remain nothing more than a QB2 option at best.
What do you look for in a fantasy running back? Young and entering the prime age for his position? Established statistical performance? No injury history to speak of? Washington’s Alfred Morris checks all those boxes as he is 26 as he’s rushed for 1,000 plus yards each of his first three seasons while never missing an NFL game. Unfortunately, I find myself wanting to divest in all shares of Morris and redeem what I perceive as top value. As a running back, I like what Morris brings to the table as a runner, though his receiving skills have always limited his fantasy ceiling. The main drawback I see with him is the team for which he plays. The Redskins are not very good and are expected to be quarterbacked by Robert Griffin III (though after the beating he took against the Lions last Thursday may be in more doubt). Morris thrives when the offense can remain competitive and commit to the ground game. Regrettably, the team has struggled and Alfred’s total carries and yards have declined each year after his rookie season. A couple of DLF’s Eric’s weighed in on Morris recently tweeting,
If Alf’s price does start to drop he isn’t a “buy low.” He would just be a “pay what he is worth” player. Same goes for Benji after injury
— Breeze (@BreezeIDP) August 21, 2015
I’ve always been a big fan of Alfred Morris & have always thought he was underrated but this Matt Jones kid looks like the GD truth.
— Eric Olinger (@OlingerIDP) August 21, 2015
The way the Washington offense and Griffin have looked to date it will be difficult for this team to remain in close games. Griffin will also likely not be making it through the season taking the punishment he does on his already fragile frame – this means fewer opportunities for Morris to pound away when his team is trying to play catch-up. There also remains the fact Washington selected Matt Jones with a third round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Jones has looked good this off-season and could start to eat into Morris’ 80% share of carries he managed in 2014. Alfred is also on the last year of his rookie deal and it appears the team is interested in extending him for the foreseeable future. It is not as if players such as Mark Ingram, Doug Martin and Andre Ellington (all normally ranked just after Morris) present a better option. I simply see a player with capped upside on a team that is not improving around him to play to his strengths.
[inlinead]I have mentioned this before, but in terms of evaluating running backs in dynasty I utilize a short lens looking into the future. There are very few top level, elite running backs who owners get to play on their teams for five to six years consecutively. The NFL continues to cycle through new plyers and when it comes to the regular talents that start for many teams today, you cannot expect them to hold down the job for too long – that is why a player like Chris Ivory intrigues me so much. Despite being 27 and entering his sixth season, he has very little wear and tear on his body amassing only 659 total touches to date. He has shown bursts of playmaking ability, but has never truly been afforded a full opportunity to carry a team. 2015 may be a different story. Last season, Ivory logged the most carries and receptions of his career despite being in a fairly even split with Chris Johnson. Of course, Johnson has moved on to Arizona, but his 155 carries from last season remain. The two Chris’ handled all but 33 of the Jets’ rushing opportunities and the team signed Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy to help pick up the slack. Ridley though is starting the year on the PUP list and Stacy is not even a sure bet to make the final roster. Bilal Powell remains as the current number two and will be New York’s third down option entering the season. All this being said, the recent showing by Chris Ivory in preseason action has the fantasy world taking notice.
The secret on Chris Ivory’s bogus low ADP is out.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 22, 2015
Two receptions already for Ivory half way through the first quarter. Had 18 total last season.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) August 21, 2015
Chris Ivory catching passes appears to be a real thing.
— Phil Alexander (@PhilTWR) August 21, 2015
I mentioned Johnson’s 155 carries needing to be replaced and by no means would I suggest Ivory will gobble them all up. But even if Ivory were to syphon off a third of those, he would be looking to log close to 250 carries. His career average yards per carry is 4.7, but even if he were to muster only the 4.1 he averaged last year, we’re still talking about a 1,000 yard rusher who is also the goal line back. With the added carries, Ivory is looking like a low-end RB2 with upside, particularly while Ridley remains sidelined. If Ivory can perform well this season, I would fully expect the Jets to resign him for next year. Currently, Ivory is ranked as the 39th running back in the DLF rankings and the consensus over at Fantasy Pros has him all the way down at 55. For a running back who seems to have a clear sight to opportunity I would be making moves for his services. Today I would want Ivory over others ranked ahead of him like Bishop Sankey, Joique Bell and Jerick McKinnon.
Another fantasy player who has only seen his yearly yardage totals fade is the Giants’ Victor Cruz. After his breakout 2011 season where he registered over 1,500 yards and nine touchdowns, Cruz’ output has fallen off dramatically. His recent lack of production is obviously due to the ruptured patellar tendon he suffered in week six last season. Cruz has been fighting back over the past year rehabbing and trying to get back into NFL form. As John pointed out, though, the recent goods news might be a good time to sell in fantasy.
I’d be sending out dynasty trade offers w/ this attached and see if you can sell high before re-injury https://t.co/NqiCegBbD6
— Rummy (@RumfordJohnny) August 17, 2015
Injuries like Cruz’ are not commonplace and there are very few cases of NFL players trying to return from them. Most of the commentary and articles I have read are cautious and not optimistic in regards to gaining previous skills and mobility. Cruz is now dealing with a calf injury that, while not related to his knee, is still another knock on the receiver’s general health. In terms of fantasy value, Cruz is not expected to perform even as a WR3 this season and his dynasty ADP is around the late 40’s. The main point here is I don’t envision Cruz executing in fantasy lineups this season and the health concerns make me wonder if he will be still be around after the season. Personally, I would be looking to grab picks in future drafts or even acquire the services of players such as Charles Johnson, Josh Gordon, Brandon LaFell or even his teammate Reuben Randle, who could prove to be a playable option on your rosters this season and beyond.
Team Defenses
The majority of fantasy leagues still use team defenses and something owners still need to consider when drafting. Of course, if you are considering your defense prior to the second to last round then I would suggest altering your strategy. The Fantasy Douche offers a little insight on a defense to mull over before winding up your last couple picks.
Carolina defense gets JAX, HOU, NO, TB to start. Seems like a decent defense to roll the dice on.
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) August 21, 2015
My main target is the Dolphins and Ndamukong Suh starting the year with Washington, Jacksonville, Buffalo and the Jets. The Colts play a similar schedule despite not having the same level of defense as Miami. I strongly consider streaming defenses and looking mainly at the first couple matchups to start the season. You can also follow Denny Carter, “The Stream Weaver” (@CDCarter13) for weekly advice on matchups to exploit.
Fantasy Team Name of the Week
Millions of people play fantasy football and all approach this game we enjoy with different levels of intensity. Above all though you should be playing to have fun and that is why the perfect team name is so important. Share your favorite team names in the comment section below or hit me up on Twitter. Also, feel free to use the image provided here as well.
The Big Tebowski
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
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Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
