Land Mines and Gold Mines
The all-important startup draft. It sets the tone and the direction of your new team for the next several years. There are many ways to build a championship dynasty team that is competitive year in and year out. Some prefer the “win now” approach. Those owners are scooping up veteran value all over the place, looking to take home the title in year one. On the other end of the spectrum are the “youthers.” These owners are taking young and talented but relatively unproven players in an effort to dominate in year two, three and beyond.
Either approach can build a champion, but both are susceptible to stepping on a fantasy land mine in each and every round of the startup draft. Think about each pick you make as a metaphor for an actual pickaxe. With every selection or swing of the pickaxe in your draft you are hoping to hit a gold mine while avoiding a potential land mine. In this series we will take a look at the DLF August dynasty startup ADP, identifying the land mines and gold mines in each round.
First Round Land Mine
Eddie Lacy, RB GB (current ADP 11th overall, RB2)
As a Packer fan, I love Eddie Lacy. He is entering his third season for one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Watching the 25-year old bowl over defenders on back to back big runs in the first preseason game against the Patriots got me excited about what he and the Packers can do in 2015. Despite all that, I’m still not taking him at his current price in the late first round.
Here’s why.
Lacy has a capped workload and is a concussion risk. It’s pretty clear by his usage the Packers want to keep Lacy on a pitch count in an effort to keep him fresh and healthy for the playoffs. I generally try to be agnostic when it comes to injuries. Concussions are the one area where I tend to pay a little more attention and am a little more cautious. Maybe it’s the scars left behind by players like Jahvid Best and Austin Collie. Whatever it is, I have a similarly icky feeling when I meditate on Lacy. Concussions in back-to-back years and the research showing a person is three times more likely to have another concussion after suffering their first one are reasons enough for me to not recommend him as a first round selection. That battering ram style I love from Lacy is the same one that will prevent him from having a long and healthy career; an important component of what I want in a first round startup pick.
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First Round Gold Mine
Mike Evans, WR TB (current ADP 7th overall, WR5)
At 6’5″ and 231 pounds, Mike Evans is a beastly wide receiver. When the 2015 season begins he will be 22 years old and already have a double digit touchdown season on his resume – production that came with Josh McCown and Mike Glennon throwing him the ball. In the 2015 NFL Draft, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers changed the fortune of their franchise when they chose Jameis Winston to be the quarterback of the team. Winston is a huge upgrade for Evans and is my favorite quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.
There are two big reasons why Winston and Evans should become fast friends on the field. Winston knows how to use a big receiver like Evans. Two seasons ago he threw 15 touchdowns to the 6’5″ Kelvin Benjamin when they played together at Florida State. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Winston is an aggressive downfield passer. He is willing to throw the ball up and give his receiver a chance at making a play on the ball – this quality meshes perfectly with Evans size and skillset. Evans himself made his mark at Texas A&M catching these same kind of bombs from Johnny Manziel. Draft Evans in the first round and reap the benefits of these two talented young players growing together over the next decade.
Second Round Land Mine
Brandin Cooks, WR NO (current ADP 16th overall, WR12)
My reasoning behind avoiding Cooks this year is documented in more detail here.
The short version of that article goes like this – I believe the Saints’ will run the ball quite a bit more in 2015. All of their off-season moves on the offensive line and on defense point to that fact. I don’t believe Cooks will be nearly as successful against better coverage as he was last season against lesser competition. His league leading (among wide receivers) 76.8% catch rate is also destined to decline as he runs WR1 kind of routes rather than just being a short and intermediate option. The hype is out of control on Cooks right now and I am avoiding based on his current price as a fantasy WR1 in twelve team leagues.
Second Round Gold Mine
DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU (current ADP 15th overall, WR11)
Why draft Brandin Cooks when you can draft DeAndre Hopkins right around the same price? I don’t know about you guys, but after seeing Hopkins literally break DeAngelo Hall’s ankle with his short area quicks in the season premiere of Hard Knocks, I want this guy everywhere I can get him.
https://vine.co/v/edJWWbpgTwj
Seriously though, “Nuk” is legit and has a chance to join the elite tier of receivers this season as the Texans number one wide receiver. With Andre Johnson on another team and Arian Foster on the mend, the Texans’ offense will run through Hopkins. He should be a target monster in 2015 as the only real option in the passing game. Unlike Cooks, Hopkins has the size and strength to deal with the opposing team’s best defensive backs.
Don’t be afraid of the quarterback situation as the main argument against taking Hopkins. It’s not like he was working with much in 2013 and 2014 when he was catching passes from luminaries like Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage and Matt Schaub. Hopkins has shown he can produce with subpar quarterback play. Get him on your team now before he gets that Hard Knocks bump.
Third Round Land Mine
Allen Robinson, WR, JAX (current ADP 29th overall, WR18)
My fellow DLF writer Izzy Elkaffas (@DLF_IzzyE) wrote a great piece on why we need to pump the brakes on Robinson.
I’m with Izzy for the most part. I like the talent and the volume of targets Robinson should see but I am not a believer in the Jacksonville offense. Outside of newly acquired Julius Thomas, the Jaguars are relying on second year players and a rookie running back to put points on the board. I’m not saying it’s not going to come together. I’m just saying I’m not willing to spend a third round pick on that kind of asset.
Third Round Gold Mine
Travis Kelce, TE KC (current ADP 35th overall, TE3)
Disclaimer alert: I love me some “Baby Gronk,” so keep in mind I am quite a bit biased toward him when I recommend spending late third to early fourth draft capital on the 25-year old Kansas City tight end. Kelce was one of the most efficient players at the position catching 77% of his targets including 10 for 13 for 96 yards and five touchdowns in the red zone. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (@wsky_tango_fxt) wrote an excellent article on Kelce explaining this in further detail over at Rotoviz.
One reason people are down on the Kansas City offense is because it is quarterbacked by the safe and steady yet uninspiring Alex Smith. That argument is actually one that strengthens the case for Kelce at his current price. Remember Vernon Davis? While he hasn’t been fantasy relevant lately don’t forget that in 2009 and 2010 Davis had back to back top two finishes with none other than Alex Smith throwing him the ball. Pay up for Kelce in your startup in the mid to late third round and for the foreseeable future you won’t have to think about the position at all.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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