Outside the Box: Darren Sproles
Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by a friend and former writer at DLF, Paymon Shookohi. We welcome the submission from Paymon and thank him for his efforts!
“We’ll line him up in a lot of different places.”
That statement about Darren Sproles from Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur is worth looking into as the week one “submit your lineups” call is just around the corner. The what to make of Darren Sproles’ value question, along with the wide range of answers, made me curious enough to do some digging for a little more clarity. I try not to fall in the trap of following popular opinion, leaving it up to experts to prove answers to harder questions. It’s not about right or wrong—often times the answers are indeed very on point based on the questions. I just like to tackle more complex questions with further analysis.
My approach to problem solving and asking questions is from the philosophical view that we don’t know what we don’t know and it forces a step back of with a broader view, just for curiosity’s sake. From that context, it pointed to look at this scenario within the context of Chip Kelly, the Eagles offense, turnover at several key offensive positions and back to Darren Sproles serving as the example. I performed an open minded view of the “evidence” to see what questions surface without the compromise of an assumed answer, which may or may not end up being the same.
There are times within the evaluation process the language used tends to morph into sounding the same, yet unfamiliar. Not because experts speak it, but because it becomes so redundant and repeated it all sounds the same no matter the level of expertise – this makes it tough to escape and approach from any unique perspective and again, it is not about right or wrong. I bring it up because it ends up driving our decision making as fantasy owners.
[inlinead]What does any of this have to do with Chip Kelly and Darren Sproles? Taking a few steps back and start with some things what we do know. Kelly brings to the NFL imagination and a unique strategy for using his players to create mismatches. He’s unique mostly because most of the league seems locked-in the cycle of watch, criticize, then copy it after this anomaly beats them. Here’s a recent and also related example. We were told on absolute terms the spread offense would never work in the NFL – this was true until someone made it work and it made the rest of the NFL look as if it were stuck in time. This occurred when Tom Brady and the Patriots bullied through their schedule with it in the 2012 season. In the two seasons since, the entire league has quickly morphed to up-tempo offenses and all sorts of variances of the spread concept. The rate of change from impossible to the norm is rather remarkable when considering an entire league changed its mind over a two season span. By the way, anyone recall what inspired the change in the Patriot offense? Hint: there was a coach in Oregon doing some weird up-tempo thing in football that wowed Bill Belichick.
Fast-forward back to this season. We in the fantasy community can’t figure out what to do with the situation, given the wide range of analysis. I’ve seen Sproles ranked anywhere from a RB3 down to a RB5. Will he start? Will he get enough carries as a running back or just used on third downs? Is he going to play slot receiver? How will he get on the field with DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews there? None of these questions provide enough information to really make much of an assessment.
My assessment from all this is Sproles will be used as an ultimate curveball to confuse defenses. Kelly will assign him a position (running back), as defenses will scheme for him from that viewpoint. Kelly, on the other hand, sees Sproles as a player with special attributes way too simplistic to assign a position, other than the league requires it. A position would limit the different mismatches and confusion he can cause defenses. It’s really a position-less offense when stripped of defined understanding of positions. The mix of up-tempo and skilled players collectively bring a level of confusion and pressure that lead to more mistakes. There will be motion, slot players playing outside, tight ends playing receiver, running backs playing the slot, etc. Players move all around play-by-play and the ridged schemed defenses have a tough time going a whole game without breakdowns. And Sproles is a major component of fear because his attributes cause defenses know they have to account for him when he’s on the field.
So in this context, how should we rank Darren Sproles at running back? My answer is we shouldn’t. Not in the context of position, but more so in general terms. If we must assign him a position, it should be WR/RB rather than RB or WR. When it comes to fantasy points, I really don’t care where it comes from as long as it is points from the collective lineup. Rather than bringing a perception of staring a RB4 or WR3, a more objective view is to not let the number 4 or 3 enter the consideration. Most lineups have at least one wildcard option of the either/or. It takes some of the complexity away when viewing the WR/RB as a position of its own.
When the season starts, depth charts, rankings, projections and rumors all go out the door and only production matters. When looking at some of the names ranked ahead of Sproles and consider the potential, I become utterly confused. The mere chance at a dynamic wildcard in the lineup at the projected cost to acquire is simple ROI with very little risk.
Sure, there will be weeks defenses will lock in and Jordan Matthews scores three touchdowns instead. Other weeks, Nelson Agholor may go uncovered or Zach Ertz will have a big day. That scenario is likely, but the Eagles are going to score and score a lot. I want a proven weapon at the hands of a proven coach that knows exactly how to use speed and quickness like few others (side note: wish it were true for Tavon Austin).
While we can’t predict the future definitively, I’ve learned a little more curiosity and re-assessing a situation usually provides a little extra perspective. It all helps when faced with unknown situations. We’ll never achieve 100% when predicting outcomes, but it is possible to get a little closer to the actual answer. When the same question gets repeated, it generally results in same answers. Since we have an assumption for the answer before questions get asked, they tend to be reverse engineered questions based on answers, rather than simply asking because there is a genuine lack of understanding. I may be off, but I now own Sproles in every league I play based on my assessment.
It’s a guess. Ankles are far better fortune tellers.
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