Why I’m Avoiding Andre Ellington

Bruce Matson

ellington

I’m never going to own a single share of Andre Ellington because I’m not willing to pay anything near the market price to obtain him. He currently has an ADP of 70.33, ranking him 23rd at his position and that was before the Cardinals signed Chris Johnson. The fact is, there are a lot of other running backs who are being selected after him and that list includes many I’d rather take a shot on, including the following:

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I wouldn’t trade any of these players for Ellington and I’m more than likely not going to consider drafting him unless he fell to around the #130 range in the draft. Since there’s no way he’s going to fall that far even with the signing of CJ2K, the fact is I’m simply never going to own him.

I hold nothing against you if you’re an advocate of Ellington, but he’s just not one of “my guys.” I’m not trying to be a contrarian due to his hype. I really wasn’t a fan of him during my initial evaluation for my rookie drafts back in 2013, either. In fact, this piece was written well before Johnson even tried out for the Cardinals.

At 24 years old, he was an older prospect coming out of college and he really wasn’t that productive at Clemson until he was 22 years old. He’s a small running back at 5-9 and 199 pounds and that’s just not very appealing when you weigh his size against his 4.61 40-time. When he broke out during his rookie season, it didn’t cause me to change my opinion on him because I felt the success from his rookie season wasn’t going to be permanent.

Ellington had it rough last year. He suffered a foot injury at the beginning of the season and he was placed on IR during Week 13 with a hip pointer. His efficiency suffered, as he rushed for just 3.3 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus ranked Ellington 40th in the league in terms of elusive rating as well. He actually only created 12 missed tackles rushing the football, causing him to only make tacklers miss during a pedestrian 5.97% of his carries. Not only did Ellington’s efficiency drop while rushing the ball, he also was inefficient in the receiving game. He dropped 14.81% of his catchable targets, which was the second-highest in the league.

His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is the main source of his fantasy production. There’s a chance Ellington could experience a decrease in workload or possibly lose his starting role if he continues dropping passes at this rate.

There’s a case to be made his play suffered due to playing most of the season injured. I definitely see that point and how that could hamper his play, but the fact is he’s always hurt. Ellington is 26 years old and has a very extensive injury history that dates back to his days at Clemson.

  • 2010: He tore a ligament in his foot and had to have surgery.
  • 2011: He sprained his ankle and missed a game.
  • 2013: He pulled his hamstring at the combine, missed week 1 due to a concussion and missed week 13 against the Eagles due to a knee injury.
  • 2014: He began the season with a foot injury, suffered a hip pointer blocking during week 13 and was placed on IR.
  • 2015: He’s already experienced a tight hamstring in training camp.

He’s not dealing with a major injury at that moment, but he’s currently dealing with that tight hamstring. He has been productive in the past, but I believe eventually the rubber is going to meet the road and the effects from his injuries are going to take their toll – this is just one more ailment to add to the growing list.

Could last year’s production be a sign that he is wearing down from the trauma that he has sustained from all his injuries? That’s a question we must ask ourselves, because if that’s true, his fantasy production in the future is in jeopardy.

Personally, I don’t want to take on that risk and find out if they can stay healthy for an entire season. I also don’t like having players on my team who aren’t reliable with their health, leaving them out of my lineup during large portions of the season.

This season is also different compared to last year since there’s more competition in Arizona’s backfield. The Cardinals selected David Johnson in the third round of this year’s draft. Johnson is a highly athletic back from the University of Northern Iowa. He could pose a threat to Ellington’s workload in the future. Chris Johnson is also now in the mix and that further clouds Ellington’s short and long-term future with Arizona.

David Johnson is a lot bigger than Ellington at 6-0, 224 pounds. He doesn’t run like a big back, but he’s one of the best receiving backs to ever come out of college. In fact, he caught 141 passes for 1,734 yards during his college career. David Johnson’s skill set is very comparable to Ellington’s and I think he will prove he’s a better receiver as well. He is also faster and quicker than Ellington – at the combine, he ran a 4.5 40 and posted a 6.82 3-cone drill time. We can say “workout warrior” and other things about David Johnson’s metrics, but he’s still a threat. He has features in his game that can help him win at the NFL level – that scares me when I think about drafting Ellington because David Johnson is going to get the opportunity to cut into his workload if Chris Johnson doesn’t before him. If David Johnson flashes during the season or Chris Johnson somehow re-creates himself, Ellington’s workload could diminish quickly.

I stated earlier I would draft David Johnson over Ellington. Johnson is a rookie who I love and I’m willing to push some of my chips in on him. He is a safe play because he is a rookie – he could do absolutely nothing this season and his value will stay the same or even increase if Ellington continues to struggle. I would have the opportunity to sell out for more than what I paid for in that scenario.

Simply put, Ellington’s value will drop if he has another injury-plagued season. You will be stuck with him and you would only get pennies on the dollar on trade market. I don’t want to go through the headache of whether he could maintain his fantasy value. I wouldn’t draft David Johnson at Ellington’s ADP, but if Ellington fell in the draft and it was a choice between the two, I would actually take David Johnson.

This time last year, Ellington had an ADP of 35.5, which is a variance of 35 spots compared to his current ADP of 70.33 (which is sure to go down a bit with Chris Johnson in the mix). How much more can his stock decrease if he has another season riddled with injuries? What if Johnson flashes and he is receiving a lot of buzz from the media and that leaves Ellington as the forgotten man?

If I want to sell Ellington next off-season, there’s a chance I’m not going to get the return on my investment. When the odds are against a player to maintain the value I paid for them, I’m not going to want to make the investment of adding them to my team.

I’m an advocate of getting “my guys” in trades and startup drafts. Ellington is just not one of those players and when presented the option of obtaining him, I would rather go another direction. I can see why someone would be enticed to drafting Ellington and I wouldn’t fault them for that. He’s just a player I’m not targeting even if his ADP drops again with the signing of CJ2K.

What do you think? Would you draft Ellington around his current ADP? Will Johnson overtake him this season? Let us know what you think in the comments below.

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bruce matson