Wisdom of the Crowd: Which Rookie Class is better?

Trevor Bucher

crowd

Recently, DLF forum user dynastyninja took a strong stance, stating he felt the 2015 rookie class is better than the 2014 rookie class. For context, his claim is based on the groups as prospects. It is not intended to retroactively look at the 2014 class and its apparent greatness.

I think this is a great topic and his strong stance is bold. If an owner feels this way, then the owner would ideally trade into this class with rookie picks and/or for players post-draft. What I intend to answer with this analysis is simple – which class is better?

Method of Analysis

For my part, I wanted to take a look at the topic as objectively as possible. After much debate, I concluded the only objective way to look at this topic was to use DLF average draft position (ADP) data. ADP is objective because a large number of people participate in the mock drafts and it has all relevant considerations already cooked into player values. Considerations such as off-field risk, perceived ceiling/floor, situation, and talent are things that can be subjective, but ADP combines all of this into one objective piece of data. Since we already have complete data for June of each year, I compared the June 2014 rookie ADP and June 2015 rookie ADP.

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Limitations include the fact there was a data set of 199 players for June 2014 while there are 267 for June 2015 – this means there are more entries for rookies in 2015 than 2014, many of them on the lower end of the ADP spectrum. To account for this, I’ll present overall data as well as an adjusted set of data for players who registered an ADP in the top 200 in each year. One other consideration is the bias the dynasty community may have towards wide receivers following the epic rookie year for 2014. The ADP of 2015 rookie wide receivers is most likely influenced by the success of the 2014 class, but I am unable to completely eliminate that impact from the data.

So, with those thoughts in mind, let’s jump into the data together. Dynastyninja posed his question for the classes as a whole, but then broke it down by position. I’ll do the same.

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At face value, the quarterbacks from 2014 look to be better than the ones from 2015 based on the ADP from their respective years. There are four quarterbacks from each year that qualify. The picture changes when we remove the two quarterbacks from the 2015 class who had an ADP below 200. The remaining two are Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota and it should come as no surprise that the pair is being drafted highly. However, it is important to remember that a total of four quarterbacks from 2014 had an ADP above 200. This disparity forces me to come to two conclusions.

Stronger depth: The 2014 quarterback class has better depth than that of the 2015 class. Four players coming out of college with dynasty ADP in the top 200 in their rookie year is pretty phenomenal.

Top end talent: The 2015 quarterback class has better top end talent, indicated by the much higher adjusted ADP for those drafted in the top 200. Backing up this assertion is that in 2014, Johnny Manziel was the highest drafted quarterback at #121, while Winston leads the charge in 2015 at #93.

The Verdict: I have to give the nod to the 2015 class. In a quarterback environment where mid-level production is devalued, a shockingly high ADP of 93 for Winston indicates that the dynasty community values him as a legitimate prospect with an elite ceiling despite his off-field concerns.

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The running back class appears to be pretty cut and dry. For those who have been following devy prospects the past few years, this should come as no surprise. Average ADP data agrees with the wisdom of the crowd here. The ADP of the 2015 class is higher both as a whole and when adjusted to include only those with an average ADP in the top 200. When reviewing the data, I was surprised to see that the numbers for these two classes were as close as they are. Digging into the data a bit further, the average ADP for the top 10 from each class paints a clear picture.

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There we go. This matches what I expected to see.

The Verdict: This is cut and dry. The 2015 class wins at running back.

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Note: Jared Abbrederis registered an average ADP of 204, but was still one of the top 200 in 2014.

Wide receiver is the position where things get dicey. You may notice that graph includes an extra piece of data: the 2015 ADP for the 2014 Class. While including 2015 ADP in the analysis of the 2014 rookie class goes against the concept of objectively evaluating the respective classes, we need to also consider the likely scenario that the unprecedented success of the 2014 class has impacted the way that the dynasty community is drafting the 2015 class. The 2014 class pretty clearly wins both in terms of overall ADP and adjusted ADP. Having actually done quite a few drafts and mock drafts this year, something seemed off to me, so I extrapolated the data for just the top 10 from each class as I did with the running backs.

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This confirms my suspicion. An average ADP of roughly #64 is pretty high for a set of rookie receivers, but given how prolific the class turned out to be – hey, that’s not bad. The average ADP for the top ten receivers from 2015 is two spots higher. I have to assume this is impacted by the 2014 rookie class bursting onto the scene. As I discussed previously, the odds of any rookie receiver producing like the 2014 class did is quite small. Given the ADP for 2014 wide receivers was high, I have to assume that the dynasty community nailed it. The odds are absolutely stacked against another receiver class repeating the production of the 2014 class, so I would exercise caution when drafting rookies this year.

The Verdict: Although ADP for the top ten wide receivers is higher in 2015 than it was in 2014, the recent success of the 2014 class likely impacted the 2015 results. Overall wide receiver average ADP for 2014 was higher than the 2015 group, as was the adjusted ADP. The 2014 wide receiver class wins.

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Widely criticized as a paper thin position in 2015, tight end ADP data offers no surprises. Each class only had three eligible tight ends based on ADP, and the top tight end from 2015, Maxx Williams, slots squarely between the average ADP of the second and third tight ends from 2014. Compounding things for the 2015 class, one of the three was not even in the top 200. All three qualifiers from 2014 had top 200 ADP. This group doesn’t require any further analysis, I’m calling it.

The Verdict: The 2014 tight end class wins and it is not close. 

The Decision: The 2014 Class Wins

I have to give the call to the 2014 class. It clearly won at tight end, edged out a victory at wide receiver, and, while I chose the 2015 class as the stronger one at quarterback, it was close and came with the caveat the 2014 class was deeper. I count that as around two and a quarter out of four votes.

When I began my data collection for this analysis, I fully expected to side with the 2014 class, and I did not think it would be particularly close. The 2015 class made it difficult and put up a close fight. While I am siding with the 2014 class, I don’t believe we should criticize anyone whom disagrees with that decision. It was a close battle using average ADP and the class of 2015 may turn out to be great. Anyone who invested heavily in the 2014 class has been rewarded and it looks as though the same may be true of the 2015 class. It will be interesting to see just how these numbers look next off-season.

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