Instant Analysis: White Out

Jeff Haverlack

whiteIt’s been an inauspicious start for many of 2015’s dynamic rookies.  Today comes word that the Bears’ high flying Kevin White will miss at least the first six games of the season and, perhaps, as much as the entire season.

White has been battling a lower leg (shin) injury for the last couple of weeks and will now go under the knife to install a rod to stabilize his lower leg.  He’ll miss at least the first six weeks and potentially the entire season as the coaching staff won’t rush their young stud back on the field and risk further injury.  White, who was hearing his name called first in fantasy rookie drafts on occasion will now fall from redraft favor and, most likely, see at least some erosion to his dynasty value as well.

That said, the Bears are taking the correct approach and there is no expected long term risk with this injury.  It’s a disappointing blow for the high upside target but perhaps he’ll be able to make further progress with more study time from the sidelines.  Receivers’ benefit most from field time so while this is a minor injury concern, development could be delayed.  His absence from the lineup will provide opportunities for other targets who have been sliding due to White’s selection in the draft.

Jay Cutler, QB

Cutler is a maddening quarterback by default, with or without White in the lineup.  More large, dynamic, targets should increase his productivity but with Cutler, you never really know.  I can’t forecast any increased productivity with a target such as White out of the offense, but Cutler does have some chemistry with Wilson, who knows the system and this should should help a modest amount.  The bigger blow is the absence of Brandon Marshall as all focus will now roll to Alshon Jeffery who, himself, is sporting a lower leg injury.  On the surface, it seems that Cutler and Bears’ fans are in for another frustrating season.

Alshon Jeffery, WR

Sporting a calf strain, Jeffery is also currently down, expected to miss the next week or two.  The departure of Brandon Marshall thrusts Jeffery into the unquestioned WR1 role in the Bear offense and he’s got the size and the hands to be a difference maker.  Jeffery will feel the pressure from White being out of the offense as he can now expect greater double-teams and bracket coverage as defenses try to force the ball to other targets and take away big plays.  The emergence of Eddie Royal in the offense should pay dividends for Jeffery but the wildcard that is Jay Cutler makes him a riskier WR1 play.

[inlinead]Marquess Wilson, WR

While many are targeting Eddie Royal for increased targets out of the slot, I like the potential of Wilson on the outside more.  He’s entering his third season with the Bears and has the size to be a difference maker on the outside in White’s role.  He doesn’t have the same speed dynamic as does White but Wilson is a gritty receiver with a catch radius better than advertised.  You could do worse with Wilson coming off your bench as a last-flex play.

Eddie Royal, WR

Royal will see the field early and often in 2015, even without White’s injury.  Playing out of the slot, Royal has always had a knack for finding soft spots in zone coverage and working across the field, occasionally getting over the top for the big play as well.  With large receivers working the outside and tight end Martellus Bennett exploiting seams, Royal’s value only rises with White out of the lineup, but not enough in my opinion to shoot him up draft boards.  He could be an upside WR4 as is.

Martellus Bennett, TE

While many default to Bennett as a player to get more targets in White’s absence, I don’t necessarily believe that an increase in this area will increase his yardage or productivity.  In fact, I was more excited about Bennett’s quality targets with White in the offense, forcing safeties to shade outside coverage, potentially leaving Bennett with a softer seam.  Targets will rise but productivity increase shouldn’t be considered a lock.

Running Backs

Matt Forte’ remains the bell-cow back with Ka’Deem Carey and rookie Jeremy Langford fighting for back-up duty.  Missing the presence of White, safeties will now be able to creep closer to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to stack the box against one of the NFL’s aging, but more productive, backs.  Expect Forte’s carries to drop slightly but for him to still hold a solid RB1 role in fantasy.  New addition Jacquizz Rodgers will remain a passing down or gadget player that shouldn’t be affected here.

Summary

Again, while White’s injury is frustrating for those relying on his play to bolster their lineup, take a deep breath and be thankful that this type of injury is extremely treatable and that the Bears are taking their time rather than rushing him back onto the field to potential greater injury (RGIII?).  The fire is spreading in that many believe he’ll be shut down for the entire season but my money is on him returning by week eight, following their bye.  Dynasty leaguers can remain excited about White’s long term potential and play making ability.  Only more patience needs to be added.

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jeff haverlack