Dynasty Debate: Ameer Abdullah vs. T.J. Yeldon

Coin Flip

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Today’s combatants are two promising rookie running backs, T.J. Yeldon and Ameer Abdullah. Each was one of the first four running backs off the board in this year’s NFL Draft, and they’ve both been top ten picks in rookie dynasty drafts, according to our ADP data. Let’s take a look at some measurables before the debate begins.

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Carla’s argument for Yeldon

The Jacksonville Jaguars are an NFL team accustomed to running the football. It all started with James Stewart being drafted in 1995 when the franchise began as an expansion team. Stewart still holds the franchise record with five touchdowns in a game. Fred Taylor succeeded Stewart and set a record of his own – no other running back has ever played more than 140 games for Jaguars. He also rushed for over 11,000 yards. As his career was ending with the Jaguars, Maurice Jones-Drew’s was beginning. MJD was easily the next most remembered and had the second most games played in Jaguars history at 125. The Jaguars struggled at running back during Jones-Drew’s last two seasons and since then they have struggled to find a lead back.

Could the Jacksonville Jaguars have found their missing piece when drafting Yeldon, a five-star recruit from Alabama? Yeldon was drafted in the second round of the 2015 draft. He managed to compile 1,108 yards his freshman year while Eddie Lacy was still on the team and concluded his career at Alabama with 3,322 yards rushing, fourth most in school history. He accomplished this mission under one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in college football. Yeldon opted for the NFL draft forgoing his junior season. Alabama has prepared Yeldon for the NFL by running a pro-style offense – this should allow Yeldon immediate opportunities and is essential for the Jaguars as they need instant production from this position.

Who would challenge Yeldon for the starting position given the current Jaguars roster? I instantly want to say nobody, but the reality is Denard Robinson has experience in the Jaguars’ system. The truth of the matter is Robinson was not on the field much his rookie year and was only able to get his feet wet last year contributing 582 rushing yards. He did secure a 4.3 yards per carry average with a poor offensive line, but he is simply not an every down back. The remaining rostered running backs go by the names of Toby Gerhart, Bernard Pierce, and undrafted free agent Corey Grant, who has speed and is impressing coaches with his kick return abilities. While the other running backs possess many strengths, Yeldon’s ability to quickly change direction paired with his very sharp instincts and overall talent should guarantee him the starting job.

Despite Jacksonville having one of the worst offensive lines last year (which allowed the quarterback to be sacked 71 times), it is rumored to be much improved for 2015.  The line was young last year. Luke Joeckel was not a rookie like Brandon Linder and Luke Bowanko but he sat out most of his rookie season with an injury. All three are bigger and ready to protect for the 2015 season.

It is difficult to debate the Yeldon vs. Abdullah contest due to them both being rookies and having zero historical NFL stats to analyze. Both are good backs and should have great success. Yeldon’s current average draft position (ADP) stands at RB14-RB17  in start-ups. I like his chances of paying off for teams. There is little risk and the long term reward as Jacksonville continues to make improvements on their offensive line – a good sign for Yeldon owners.

Austan’s argument for Abdullah

When I watch film on Abdullah, I have to take a cold shower afterwards just to calm down. I’ve been drawing little hearts around his name for a while now. He has excellent feet, runs hard, possesses elite short-area burst, slithers into the smallest creases and appears to be playing at a different speed than everyone else. I think Abdullah has as much ability as any back in this class. To me, his NFL comparison is a better inside-the-tackles version of C.J. Spiller.

Let’s address this right away – Abdullah, at 5-foot-9, 205 pounds, doesn’t have the size typically associated with a top-flight running back. Do you know who else isn’t over 5-foot-10? Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk and Barry Sanders — ever heard of them?! More recently, Alfred Morris, Ray Rice and Frank Gore have excelled despite their supposed height deficiencies. Size isn’t as important as whether or not the player can play. And, boy, can Abdullah play.

He racked up 226, 281 and 264 carries in his last three seasons at Nebraska, so his size didn’t prevent him from being a true workhorse in college. For reference, Todd Gurley never had more than 222 carries in a season while Yeldon never surpassed 207 rushing attempts. I suppose Abdullah’s heavy college workload could be a negative moving forward, but I like knowing he can handle every-down duties. Abdullah is also an extremely capable receiver out of the backfield, catching 73 balls for 690 yards and seven scores in his career despite playing with two poor passing quarterbacks.

As a Cornhusker, Abdullah didn’t just take a lot of handoffs, he ran wild with them on his way to 5,762 career all-purpose yards, which set a school record. From 2012 to 2014 (his three seasons as Nebraska’s bell cow), Abdullah had more 100-yard games (23) than any running back in college football. He also had the third-most 100-yard games with a touchdown (17). For his career, Abdullah carried the rock 813 times for 4,588 yards (5.6 YPC) and 39 touchdowns, including back-to-back 1,600-yard campaigns in 2013 and 2014. In 2014 alone, he erupted for four 200-yard games and scored 22 total touchdowns.

It’s hard to argue against Abdullah being the best athlete in this running back class. He absolutely shredded the combine, placing first among running backs in the vertical jump (42.5 inches), three-cone drill (6.79 seconds), broad jump (130 inches), 60-yard shuttle (11.18 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle (3.95 seconds). Abdullah posted the highest SPARQ score (142.5) for running backs at the combine, which places him in the 95.6 percentile of NFL players. SPARQ is a formula which factors in each combine/pro day test along with a player’s weight.

Landing with the Lions is an ideal situation for Abdullah. The departure of Reggie Bush, at a minimum, instantly frees up some pass-game touches in a high-powered offense, but I think he’s going to do more than that. Joique Bell has retained RB2 value the past two seasons as purely a volume-dependent running back, posting a sluggish yards-per-carry mark of 3.9. I think Detroit drafted Abdullah to be their lead back, and it could come to fruition as soon as this season. I fully expect Abdullah to emerge from camp with a least a 50-50 split of the workload, and it’ll grow when he runs laps around the plodding Bell.

We don’t get fantasy points for rostering nice guys, but according to an anonymous AFC North scout’s quotes to NFL.com, it sounds like Abdullah has a good head on his shoulders to go with all his ability, which, to me, means he will give himself every chance to succeed.

“He has the highest overall character grade I’ve ever given to a prospect,” the scout is quoted as saying, “and includes both football character and off-the-field.”

Conclusion

Carla and I like both running backs and each should be a strong building block capable of producing for you this season. Carla is a fan of Yeldon’s college production and the up-and-coming Jacksonville offense. Austan, on the other hand, thinks Abdullah is the total package, despite his 5-foot-9, 205-pound frame. In the end, it’s up to you to take the arguments and make your own decision.

Who do you prefer between the two?  Let us know in the comments below.

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