Third Year Wide Receiver Breakouts

Harrison Ju

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Editor’s Note: This article is written by Harrison Ju, one of DLF’s newest writers. We welcome Harrison to the crew of 55 strong and look forward to seeing his work in the future.

With the recent inception of successful rookie and sophomore receivers who contribute right away, the fantasy football community started moving away from the once popular idea of “third year breakout wide receivers.” Before 2013, it was actually really rare for a rookie (or even a sophomore receiver) to even put up 1,000 yards in a season. To be precise, from 1920 to 2012, there were only 81 instances where a rookie wide receiver was able to put up at least 1,000 receiving yards in a season. However, when looking for the same requirements for wide receivers within their first three seasons, the resulting queries were much bigger. Compared to the 81 instances, there were 160 instances of a wide receiver recording a 1,000+ yard season. For the obvious reasons that youth is very important in dynasty (or is it?), wide receivers who aren’t studs beyond the sophomores are obnoxiously cheap and underrated. The third year receivers might be a little bit older and believe it or not, some younger or the same age, they are much more cost efficient and could be even more productive. With that being said, here are three players I have on my radar who fit the mold of underrated third year receiver.

Stedman Bailey, WR STL

My favorite third year wide receiver breakout candidate is Stedman Bailey. Looking at it briefly, he looks like a desolate piece to own. He’s in a depth chart with the talented (or once talented) Brian Quick, Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt. His quarterback is the boring, inefficient Nick Foles. Their head coach, Jeff Fisher, loves pounding the run game. With all these things going against Bailey, why am I so excited about this kid?

ADP: Looking at the most recent ADP data on DLF, Bailey’s ADP is 191, behind rookies like Tre McBride whose rookie ADP is 37 (4.01). You could theoretically be able to get Stedman (or Studman as I like to call him) for a cheap price of a late third round rookie pick.

Efficiency: To add, he quietly had a very efficient season. He had the highest catch rate for receivers who ran at least 25% of their snaps from the slot in 2014 at 85.7%. Not only that, he was extremely efficient in terms of yards per route run at 1.99 which was the sixth highest out of all receivers that played out of the slot. I wondered that if he was such an efficient wide receiver, how did he not breakout in 2014? He only started three games last year and had very little opportunity despite being the best wide receiver on the team last year.

Athleticism and Size: People often knock on Bailey due to his small size and perceived weak athleticism. He ran a 4.49 forty yard dash and ran a sub seven second 3-cone time at his combine. Looking at wide receivers with similar athleticism, two intriguing players that came up were Randall Cobb and Deion Branch. Cobb and Branch were never knocked for their athleticism and neither should Bailey.

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Opportunity: Brian Quick, the number one wide receiver on the depth chart is coming off a very serious shoulder injury and plays a completely different roles that should only complement each other. Kenny Britt hasn’t been the same player after his lower body injuries and hasn’t been able to regain his former athleticism. Last and not least, Tavon Austin has been only efficient (or even decent) when he wasn’t playing wide receiver. With all the questions on their depth chart, Stedman Bailey has at least a guaranteed slot role and should get plenty of opportunity.

Outlook: At only 24 years old, Bailey is still a young receiver with plenty of opportunity, talent and good draft pedigree who could breakout this year. Best of all, he’s almost free.

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT

My surprise third year wide receiver breakout candidate is Markus Wheaton. It’s surprising he would be a breakout candidate when the hype train of Martavis Bryant is in full swing and the Steelers still have the higher floor/ceiling wide receiver in Antonio Brown. However, there’s a lot more than meets the eye in regards to Wheaton..

ADP: Despite putting together a decent sophomore season, he is being drafted #206 overall – that’s behind players like Duron Carter, Marquess Wilson and Aaron Dobson.

Efficiency: Looking at just pure drop rates, Markus Wheaton actually had the lowest drop rate out of the Steelers’ receivers last year. At a drop rate of 3.64%, his problem was more on the lack of targets than actual bad play. Not only was his drop rate very good, his catch rate is a lot better than one would expect. Brown led the Steelers with an incredibly high catch rate of 72%, but Wheaton wasn’t too far behind at 64%. In third, Martavis Bryant can be found with 54%.

Athleticism and Size: Wheaton might be overlooked to another misconception on his athleticism due to his size. He still ran a 4.45 40 yard dash, clocked a 6.8 3-cone drill, and had a very respectable 120-inch broad jump. Two favorable comparisons who stood out were Greg Jennings and Steve Smith (USC). Both wide receivers had at least one very productive season and it seems unreasonable to believe Wheaton doesn’t have the size nor the athleticism to succeed in the NFL.

Opportunity: There are only three wide receivers on the Steelers who get considered for serious playing time – Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant. Current reports out of camp state Wheaton will line up outside with Brown in two receiver sets and move inside in three receiver sets – things look favorable for the third year receiver to build on his second year in 2015.

Outlook: Also at 24 years old, Wheaton will return to a similar role as last year, but will also have to fend off Bryant throughout the season. His likely outlook this season at most is probably a WR3, most likely a WR4. For the future, if he leaves Pittsburgh, he could go on to have a Emmanuel Sanders-type of season if things line up correctly.

Kenny Stills, WR MIA

This year’s most unlikely to breakout third year wide receiver for me is Kenny Stills, so I’ll throw some cold water on him here. Despite having a good athleticism profile on a team with a strong offense and having been a very efficient player in the past, things just don’t line up correctly for him. In Miami’s depth chart, he could end up anywhere between the second and fourth option.

ADP: Kenny Stills’ ADP is 87th overall, in the seventh round of dynasty start-ups – that ADP puts him above some rookies with favorable opportunity such as Devin Funchess and Jaelen Strong. It also puts him above veterans who are guaranteed opportunity suchas Brandon LaFell, Larry Fitzgerald and Vincent Jackson. For someone who is at best the second wide receiver option on his team, the price seems too steep.

Opportunity: Jarvis Landry is the only incumbent on the wide receiver depth and that leads the rest of the depth very puzzled for the fantasy players. Early reps are usually given to the players who cost the most money and incumbents, which leads to Jarvis Landry (the incumbent), Greg Jennings (the free agency grab for $4M/yr), DeVante Parker (the first round draft pick), and Stills (traded to the Saints for a LB + third round pick). It seems like Stills will face a wall in 2015 for playing time.

Outlook: Stills is still a solid dynasty player and will be a free agent after next year. Dynasty players shouldn’t get written off due to their situation. Playing role wise, Landry is locked in for the short yardage targets and Parker will be given every chance to start as their priority target. Stills is being drafted 87th overall for a player who probably won’t be any higher than the second option on the Dolphins and very limited in re-draft leagues this year as well. However, he’s still young and may do well in the future, but he doesn’t seem like a very likely breakout candidate for 2015.

In closing, if you’re like me, always looking for good value on potential breakout players, don’t pay the premium on rookies or sophomores, but buy the devalued third year wide receivers who have upside and the opportunity to shine. Not only are they young, some of them are just as young as the rookies and sophomores. For me, I’ll stick with Wheaton and Bailey and let someone else overpay for Stills.

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