Pump the Brakes: Allen Robinson

Izzy Elkaffas

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Editor’s Note: This article is written by Izzy Elkaffas, one of DLF’s newest writers. We welcome Izzy and look forward to him bringing us much more moving forward.

I get it, we all want the next big thing in dynasty to be in our possession, but let’s pump the brakes a bit. Our main goal is to win championships and maintain maximum roster value. The latter is very important. What I mean by “maintain maximum roster value” is taking calculated risks without derailing your initial season in your startup. If you fail, this requires you to have to play catch up in future seasons. If you focus on roster value, you eliminate reaches and risks, especially early. We’ve seen a shift in recent years as running backs have gone from first round staples to a couple sprinkled in with the top tier wide receivers. Why has that happened? It’s simple – we’ve slowly come to realize that using a first round pick on a running back comes with far greater risk and is a reason why dynasty teams see an initial setback.

So, what am I getting at?

If we worry so much about our first round picks, why wouldn’t we worry about the foundation of our dynasty roster just as much? The foundation isn’t just your first rounder – it’s your first few. It all revolves around purchasing players before they reach their ceiling, and to make sure their floor is higher than other players left on the board. To sum it up, you want your purchasing value to be closer to their floor than their ceiling.

Now, on to who I’m “pumping my brakes” on the most – Allen Robinson.

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Let’s take a look at a quick timeline. At this time last year, Allen Robinson’s ADP was 76. After a solid training camp, his ADP saw a rise to 60. After a decent October, his ADP saw another rise, this time to 45. One month later, with a combined November stat line of 9/95/0, he’s jumped all the way up to 31. Fast forward to now, his peak and current ADP is 29 and he was selected as high as 23. Yes, 23, which means someone drafted him in the second round ahead of the best available players at other positions, Jeremy Hill (running back), TY Hilton (wide receiver) and Jimmy Graham (tight end). In fact, all six mocks for July had him drafted by the end of the third round.

I have a huge problem with that. Don’t get me wrong, I liked Robinson coming out of Penn State and I still do, but as noted above, my main goal is to maximize roster value. He could definitely pan out and live up to his ADP of 29, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right decision today. I could compare him to Cordarrelle Patterson and how he went from an ADP of 15 last summer to 130 in the July 2015 mock, but that’s an extreme point since they aren’t similar players or talents. However, allow me to direct you to a comparison I see when I watch Robinson, but I’ve yet to hear – Michael Floyd.

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Honestly, I didn’t know the comparison was so indistinguishable. The only relative differentiators is the 40 time and snap count. Despite more snaps, Floyd had almost identical production to Robinson. The discrepancy is easily explained by the presence of Larry Fitzgerald in Arizona. Fitzgerald soaked up 153 targets in Floyd’s rookie campaign. Armed with the physical and statistical comparisons in front of us, let’s take a look at the most glaring issue – ADP.

ADP Concern

How do two players with similar stature, ability and statistical output have such a large variance in ADP? Robinson checks in at a post-rookie July ADP of 29, while Floyd had a relatively paltry 103. Those equate to 3.05 for Robinson and 9.07 for Floyd if translated to round selection in a 12-team mock. Ranking their selection amongst their peers, Robinson is being drafted as a mid-WR2 (WR18) and Floyd was a low-WR4 (WR45). To get an idea of where that would be this year, Kenny Stills is the WR45. Which receiver is being drafted close to 103 overall (#102)? Vincent Jackson. So if just two years ago we were looking for more out of our wide receivers before crowning them as fantasy gold, really ask yourself, why and how is Robinson the exception?
In order to be an exception to a rule, there should be a variety of signs that point to stardom given a players situation. Let’s do a breakdown of Robinson’s talent and align that with Jacksonville’s offense

Robinson’s Talent and Jacksonville’s Offense Last Year

As mentioned above, I see a lot of Floyd in Robinson. He even had disciplinary issues at Penn State, but that seems to be glossed over. Now as I’ve said earlier, I like Robinson, I really do. He has a lot of great attributes – he has a large frame, he’s a fluid athlete, he possesses surprising quickness for his size,  has good run after catch ability, solid hands and great leaping ability. The main issue I have with his upside is his deep play ability in the NFL. As proven by his rookie season, he wasn’t able to lift the lid off the defense despite running a fair amount of vertical routes. For a player of his stature, leaping and route running ability, it’s surprising that he only had two receptions where the ball traveled 21+ yards.

One of those receptions was a broken coverage against the Dolphins with 2:25 left to play and the Dolphins up 27-6. It should be noted that in coverage was second string Cornerback Jamar Taylor and third string Safety Michael Thomas.

Earlier in the same game, Robinson dropped a touchdown you would expect an elite talent to make, but his poor timing and elevation prevents him from making the catch.

 

 

 

The other touchdown was against the Browns. Despite horrific tackling and closing angles by the defenders, he did an excellent job displaying his balance and run after the catch ability.

 

 

We’ve covered his two touchdowns and one of his two catches on targets of over 21+ yards. The other was against the Redskins. He made the catch about 40 yards downfield, wasn’t able to run away from the defense, but was able to wiggle his way for a 54-yard gain. Now, most will point to his quarterback play, which is fine – I can agree it was very poor talent throwing him passes. Here’s the issue; the other Allen (Hurns) had six receptions on targets of 21+ yards with those same quarterbacks. What most Robinson supporters will say is, “Well, that’s because Hurns saw more targets on deep passes and ran more deep routes,” but that’s not necessarily the case. Hurns had 34 catches in the 1-10 yard range, while Robinson had 31 catches on such targets. The difference is Robinson had six catches behind the line of scrimmage. In short, 37 of his 48 receptions came within ten yards of the line of scrimmage. That’s not all – he only had three receptions in two wide receiver sets. Hurns had nine and Lee had six in those formations. Why are the short receptions and receptions within ten yards of the line of scrimmage important?

Let’s take a peek…

Jacksonville’s Offensive Additions

Most of you have guessed it at this point and that’s the addition of Julius Thomas in the starting lineup. Julius will likely step in and become Blake Bortles’ security blanket on those short to intermediate routes. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but the problem is we don’t know if Robinson can become an efficient target outside of ten yards of the line of scrimmage because we haven’t seen it even though he played ten games last season. The last issue I have is the other addition to the offense, TJ Yeldon. Robinson scored both of his touchdowns and had 254 of his yards on first down. As we all know, first down is historically a running down, especially on a team with an unreliable quarterback. Almost everyone agrees Yeldon is an upgrade at running back which will only increase the likelihood that the Jaguars set the tone with the running game and prevent Robinson from accumulating a lot of those soft coverage first down catches.

Outlook

This may all seem as if I’m bashing Robinson as a player and expect him to regress. I actually expect him to progress in his second year and become a very solid NFL wide receiver moving forward. What I am bashing is the simple fact Robinson is being drafted as the WR18 and has an ADP of 29. I have him as my WR30 and would be more comfortable with drafting him in the sixth round (ADP of 60+). With a young quarterback, a new offensive coordinator, the signing of Julius Thomas, the drafting of TJ Yeldon, the inability to dominate on vertical routes, most of his production coming on first down and the oddly ignored small sample size, I just see far too many red flags to even consider Robinson anywhere near his current draft position. Can he develop into his current ADP? Sure, but he’s being purchased at near ceiling value, when the goal should be to purchase closer to his floor. Group think and social media are powerful motivators. Let him earn it (like Floyd had to) or better yet, hop off the hype train and let someone else take the risk.

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izzy elkaffas