Josh Gordon: The Ultimate Buy Low?
History can paint a gloomy or glorious picture for dynasty owners. For those owners who drafted Montee Ball early in dynasty drafts back in 2014, it probably cost them a chance at a title and they’re still feeling the pain. Other times we wonder “how did I let Antonio Brown slip between my fingers prior to 2013?” Don’t worry; we’ve ALL been there in one way or another. Buying a player when their value is low can put your team on the fast track to winning championships and building a successful dynasty. But what if the buy low player is someone you don’t like? What if this player has burned you before after spending a high draft pick to acquire them? Or what if this player is a rival to your favorite NFL franchise? These are the situations when bias takes over our thought process, instead of letting the numbers speak for themselves. For instance, saying the name Darren McFadden can make owners cringe. Why? McFadden has continually disappointed owners in five of his seven seasons in the NFL. Whether it is in trade value or in the startup draft, every player reaches a point when they are a value. However, not all owners can overcome their own bias to realize the opportunity at hand.
Let me switch gears quickly before I bring you to the ultimate buy low. When dreaming about a wide receiver prospect, what do owners want? I imagine they have visions of an uber athletic, uncoverable, beast of a player, who becomes one of the top scoring players at his position – this isn’t a realistic possibility for most players due to limitations of opportunity, physical stature, athletic ability and/or their skillset. Looking at the 2015 rookie class of wide receivers, only roughly six of them even have a chance of ever being a WR1 if everything breaks right (Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham, Nelson Algholor, Breshad Perriman). The number would dwindle significantly more if we were talking about the #1 overall finisher at receiver. But these are rookies and we don’t know who can even play at the NFL level. So, would you take a rookie receiver outside of the six I mentioned, over a former #2 overall finisher at receiver who is currently in their prime? To put this another way, why the heck are people taking Jaelen Strong over Josh Gordon in dynasty startups?
Sorry for spoiling the article, but the ADP got me all worked up. The one and only Josh Gordon could currently be the ultimate buy low in dynasty leagues. (Pauses while all of the readers are done groaning and yes, that’s why he’s a buy low). He has a history of trouble off the field and let’s quickly review that. Gordon failed two drug tests at Baylor and was kicked off the team. He has been suspended three times in the NFL for codeine, marijuana and alcohol. These incidents have caused Gordon to be suspended for a total of 28 games, including the entire 2015 NFL season. One important thing to note is Gordon was suspended for a minimum of one year, which could indicate him being out longer.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
On the football field, Josh Gordon has been an absolute monster. In 2012 (with Brandon Weeden at quarterback), he led the Browns in receiving, despite being a 21-year old rookie who didn’t play football in 2011 due to transfer rules in college. His 50 receptions for 805 yards and seven touchdowns were good enough to place him 41st in PPR scoring. In 2013, the abysmal quarterbacking of Weeden, Jason Campbell and Brian Hoyer led Gordon to WR1 status in PPG and WR2 overall, despite being suspended for two games. He finished with 87 receptions for 1,646 yards and nine touchdowns, including two 237-plus yard games sandwiched between two 125-plus yard games. To start the 2014 season, he was suspended for ten games and the final week 17 contest. Hoyer and Johnny Manziel were his quarterbacks for the five game stretch, which he put up 24 receptions for 303 yards and 0 touchdowns – good enough for a PPG finish of 44th in PPR leagues.
Gordon’s off the field risk has soured dynasty owner’s value of him from a top five ADP asset all the way down to #115 in the July ADP on DLF. I can understand people backing away from taking Gordon high, but all the way to 115? I just couldn’t let this go; it dug in my gut for a week and forced me to write this article. I’m not here to convince you Gordon will never have a substance abuse problem again. However, athletes can turn their lives around enough to produce get fantasy results. Cris Carter failed three drug tests and was released from the Eagles before he turned around to have a Hall of Fame career. Josh Hamilton has struggled with substance abuse addiction, but he turned it around enough to have multiple All Star level seasons and won the MVP. Basically, Gordon has a chance to play football and return to an elite level producer. How good of a chance? I don’t think anyone has that answer, but I can tell you it’s a much better chance than many of the receivers being selected before him.
Lets review some of those wideouts who reside in front of Gordon’s 115 ADP.
110 Larry Fitzgerald – He turns 32 in August and has finished as WR51/WR17 the last two seasons. His best days are behind him and maybe he can get back in the WR2/3 range for a season or two.
108 Brandon LaFell – LaFell finished as WR22 last year and is already 28. I don’t see a high ceiling for him, but perhaps another WR2 season could happen.
104 Kendall Wright – Marcus Mariota should help him get closer to his sophomore season, when he went for over 1,000 yards. However, Wright turns 26 this season and I think we all know he’s not a special player.
102 Vincent Jackson – Eighth in the NFL in targets in 2014 and he finished 34th in PPR leagues. He’s 32 and safe to say his best days are behind him as well.
100 Brian Quick – Quick looked solid for four games to start the season and then had two poor games before getting injured. He’s 26, but I don’t think he will ever be a FF WR1.
95 Jaelen Strong – Third round NFL draft pick who could start his rookie season. However, his film reveals a player with limited upside.
89 Devin Funchess – Lots of hype and lots of disappointment surround Funchess. He may rebound, but I believe his upside is capped at WR2/3 range in that Carolina offense.
88 Kenny Stills – Traded to the Dolphins in the off-season, Stills is a deep threat with a quarterback which struggled with his previous deep threat. I don’t see a high ceiling here.
87 Mike Wallace – Speaking of that deep threat, Wallace is now on his third team and at the age of 29 in August, I don’t see a higher upside than maybe a WR2/3 season here or there.
84 Andre Johnson – Landing in Indianapolis with Andrew Luck has increased his value this off-season. However, he finished as the WR29 in 2014 and just turned 34 years old. I think he may be getting overrated at this point.
82 Eric Decker – Battling injuries last season, he finished as WR26 as the only notable target. This off-season, the Jets traded for Brandon Marshall and drafted Devin Smith. The future looks bleak with the increased competition and mess at quarterback.
80 John Brown – Surprised many in 2014 to see that many targets with Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd around. He’s an off-season darling and I like him as well. However, Brown is a year older than Gordon and may never become Antonio Brown or TY Hilton.
75 Torrey Smith – I don’t view signing with the 49ers as a good thing for Smith’s career trajectory. He’s 26 and topped 900 receiving yards just once.
75 Cody Latimer – The Latimer hyped is more tied into Peyton Manning in my opinion than anything else. That train is leaving soon and he’s proven nothing at the NFL level. For a second round pick, I’m not sure why he’s being hyped over Funchess, much less over Gordon.
73 Phillip Dorsett – I understand the hype of Dorsett if Hilton leaves next offseason and being teamed up with Luck. Then again, he would need to evolve much more of his game to become a WR1 than he showed in college.
71 Charles Johnson – The metrics guys enjoyed Johnson finally producing last year. However, he’s two years older and Gordon has produced more in two games than Johnson has his entire NFL career.
70 Donte Moncrief – I view Moncrief the same as Latimer and Funchess – very unproven. The Colts added many new targets in the off-season and it doesn’t reflect well of Moncrief.
If you agreed with the above, Gordon could move up 17 receiver spots (and 45 overall) in the ADP. I feel very comfortable taking him over all of those players. In my opinion, the best upside for those players would be a WR2 season and most of them are older than Gordon, who is still only 24 years old. One could argue about the receivers ranked ahead of him yet further, but I will leave those exercises up to you. The Browns appear to be leaving a spot for him as they failed to address the position in the NFL Draft, yet they owned multiple first round picks. Let me exit with just one further buying point for Gordon – in 2013, he had the 11th best yardage season in NFL History with 1,646 yards. He was only 22 years old at the time and produced the feat in only 14 games, thus making him the best producing yardage receiver in NFL History at age 22. Players with historic level ceilings are players I’m buying and I remember giving up on Randy Moss too early. I’m not making the same mistake twice and neither should you in regards to Gordon.
[/am4show]
Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
- Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears - February 1, 2017
- Dynasty 101: Trading - September 5, 2016
- Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - August 19, 2016
