The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

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Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

  1. I have a start up draft upcoming for an IDP heavy scoring format, and JJ Watt will get strong consideration as top overall pick. My question is, when should the top prospect at other positions start coming off the board?  As a point of reference, DeAndre Levy was the top linebacker in 2014 and scored more than TY Hilton (27th overall). Harrison Smith was the top defensive and scored the same as Mike Evans (50th overall).Paul in Vancouver

As I’ve mentioned before, I dabble a bit in IDP but am by no means an expert. Fortunately, one of our newest additions to Team DLF, Mo Brewington, is significantly more well versed in such matters and was kind enough to tackle this one for me. If you’re not doing so already, make sure you’re following him on Twitter, and check out his first piece at DLF, focusing on the Eagles linebacking corps! Take it away, Mo…

You mentioned how Harrison Smith outscored Mike Evans, and DeAndre Levy outdid TY Hilton. What were JJ Watt’s numbers? I ask because in my League, Watt was the #17overall scorer, ahead of Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant to name a few. He was 140 points ahead of Jason Pierre-Paul, the nearest defensive lineman.

There are a rash of people who believe Rob Gronkowski is worthy of a first round pick because of the margin by which outscores the next best tight end. I disagree with this. Gronk is still going to score fewer than 300 points for the year. In round one, I want a player who will anchor my roster every week. Gronk only outscored Jimmy Graham by 33 points, and Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett by roughly 42 points. If you end up with one of the other top five tight ends, or even Travis Kelce and  Zach Ertz who could potentially join that group, you’ve done fine.

Watt on the other hand is unmatched by anyone at his position. In fact, only five non-quarterbacks had more points in my league last year, including Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray, Antonio Brown, Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch. Of course this is completely based on your league’s scoring system, but chances are Watt should be drafted before the majority of offensive players. Another thing to consider with Watt, he’s not only the Texans’ best defensive end, he is arguably the Texans’ best tight end as well, scoring three receiving touchdowns in 2014. It’s almost unfair.

The best way for you to figure out when to start taking the best at a given position is to open up the “Player Stats” from last year. Even in a start-up they should still show you how the 2014 scoring would have broken down according to your league’s scoring system. Develop a plan. Figure out the guys you want on your team, and what positions are the highest scoring for your league. Head into the draft planning to target as many of them as you can. Each league is different. You have the ability to set the tone on draft day by deciding you’re going to take Watt in the first, and Luke Keuchly or Lavonte David in the fourth. Identify the players who are going to put points on the board every week and go get them. In the end, you will have a team full of players who deliver on game day more often than not, and give yourself a great chance to make a deep run in  playoffs.

  1. I have Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Gavin Escobar and Maxx Williams at tight end but questionable depth at receiver. Our league is PPR but scores receiving touchdowns as eight points instead of six. I’ve gotten mixed advice on trading Gronk for Brandin Cooks plus Travis Kelce and I’m in the “Gronk is worth more” camp. I’ve debated this a while and I need fresh eyes. What would it take to get you to pull the trigger on a Gronk plus Aaron Donald for Cooks and Kelce trade?Jason in KY

It says a lot about the elite talent level of Rob Gronkowski that despite his slow start to the season (due largely to a torn ACL suffered at the end of 2013), he still managed to outscore Travis Kelce by nearly 100 points given your scoring setting. Continuing, apart from a seven-game campaign last year he’s scored double-digit touchdowns in every season, and remains Tom Brady’s favorite target inside the red zone. Sure, Kelce could improve upon his numbers last season, especially as it relates to scoring, but the simple truth right now is no one is in Gronk’s stratosphere at the position. The lottery ticket (albeit an expensive one) that is Brandin Cooks wouldn’t sway me in a normal scoring setting, and certainly doesn’t sway me in your touchdown-centric format. Considering you have Jimmy Graham as well, I’d much rather attempt a one-for-one swap for someone like Dez Bryant, Julio Jones or Antonio Brown.

  1. I own sixth pick in each round of the second year of our rookie/free agent draft. I’m in dire need for running backs, and an owner with plenty of running backs is considering trading Frank Gore for my 2.06 pick. I’m trying to give him my 3.06 pick instead. Is my offer too low? Is he worth 2.06 or am I better off drafting a running back with 1.06 and 2.06?Manuel in TX

It depends on the complexion of your team. If you’re contending, I’m all for shipping off pick 2.06 to acquire ageless wonder Frank Gore. No, he wasn’t great last year, but as I discovered in my 2015 Running Back Report he has the highest likelihood of all the top-50 ball carriers of being able to replicate his numbers, and that’s not taking into account the fact his receptions are all but certain to spike. Assuming your trade partner feels the same, I find it hard to believe you’ll be able to nab him for pick 3.06. As for pick 1.06, I’d just go BPA, but that could very well be either TJ Yeldon or a guy I just keep moving up my board, Ameer Abdullah. Both should have immediate and long-term viability, and would be great picks in the middle of the first regardless of your positional need.

  1. This is my second season playing dynasty and I’m still trying to determine trade value. I took over an existing team from an owner who wanted out, and am weak at running back. I have picks 1.01, 1.04, 2.01, 2.04 and 2.05 in the upcoming draft. I plan to take a running back at 1.01 and have been offered Jeremy Hill for picks 1.04, 2.01 and 4.02. Is that price too high given I am not really one player away from a championship?Hudson in GAhill

I believe it’s a fair price – Jeremy Hill quickly established himself as the lead dog in the Cincy backfield, and I don’t see him ceding much more than 10-12 touches per game (if that) to Gio Bernard moving forward. For me (although this is certainly up for debate amongst dynasty aficionados), picks 1.04 already represents the second tier of rookies, and pick 2.01 is already approaching “lottery ticket” status. Given what we’ve seen Hill do, he and Todd Gurley (if he’s your selection at 1.01) could form one of the top ball carrying duos for years to come. With that said, I see your point about your status as a non-contender – is it possible you could swap out pick 2.01 with pick 2.05 to push it a bit more in your favor? All told though, I’d lean towards making the deal, as I think Hill is the best asset in the equation regardless of your ultimate team strategy.

  1. Trying to trade for some receiver depth and bye week fill-ins. How would you rank the following in a dynasty league: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Pierre Garçon, Marques Colston and Dwayne Bowe?Patrick in MA

The quick answer is I have new Jets receiver Brandon Marshall well above the field here. For my expanded thoughts, but sure to check out my receiver rankings here, which I just updated only a few days ago!

  1. My friends and I are doing our first ever dynasty draft, and I seem to be the only one looking at dynasty-style rankings.  Could you help me pick the best draft strategy against guys who are probably going to be using re-draft-style rankings? I have pick 1.04, at which point I know Dez or Julio will be there, but I am worried that if everyone else is drafting running backs and quarterbacks first, should I try for Le’Veon Bell in the first and see if any top young receivers last until my next pick? I was also thinking of trading for pick 7-12 and being pretty sure that some of the top receivers would still be there at that point.Tyler in WI

A dynasty start-up can be incredibly nuanced, and truth be told I don’t think there’s a single cookie-cutter strategy that is guaranteed to work. For me, I typically try to look for a balance of veterans and youthful options, with an eye towards pass catchers with my early picks, in order to field a squad that’s built both for now and the next few years. After all, as DLF’s own Brian Malone recently detailed, there’s an argument to be made for looking at a much smaller window when assessing future viability, given all the elements in the equation. But these are just some preliminary thoughts – for my full opinions on the matter, along with those of Jarrett Behar and Karl Safchick, be sure to check out our “Dynasty 101” Podcast from just a few weeks ago, where we detail exactly how to approach your initial draft.

  1. So I recently took over a team that’s going to be a two-year project. I have the first overall pick, and I’m caught between Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper. This league has three receiver slots plus a WR/TE FLEX, which gives increased value to Cooper, but I already have Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin and Martavis Bryant on the roster. In favor of Gurley, I already have Tre Mason as a handcuff, and my running back group is horrible beyond that. Who would you take?Ryan in AZ

Truth be told, I don’t see either of your “in favor of “ arguments doing much to swing your choice. Your trio of sophomore receivers definitely has upside, but there remain no guarantees they’ll amount to what we believe they will – as for already having Tre Mason on your roster, the prospect of “reverse handcuffing” shouldn’t create any additional incentive for taking Gurley. As I’ve stated on many occasions before, I view Gurley as the most talented player in this class, but Amari Cooper isn’t far behind – it’s all going to come down to personal preference for you, as each should possess upside and value through your potential two-year rebuilding process.

  1. I was hoping you could help me out with a trade I was offered in year two of my dynasty league. I was offered Jeremy Hill, DeAndre Hopkins and pick 2.07 for Alshon Jeffery and Andre Ellington. Would you pull the trigger on this deal, or do you think I should pursue offering Martavis Bryant and Mike Wallace to get Arian Foster (this was also offered to me)?Justin in PA

[inlinead]I prefer the first deal. While I value Alshon Jeffery above DeAndre Hopkins, the truth is the gap seems to be narrowing after the latter’s big step forward in 2014. Now that Andre Johnson has moved on to the division rival Colts, Hopkins is the man in Houston, and should have a good shot at 150+ targets. While the same could be said for Jeffery after the trade of Brandon Marshall, the Bears brought in Eddie Royal and selected Kevin White with the seventh pick in the NFL Draft, leading me to believe he won’t exhibit the same level of target monopolization as Hopkins. Given the upgrade at running back (even I, as one of the more ardent Andre Ellington supporters, wouldn’t argue he’s anywhere near Hill’s current value), as well as the pick, and I think that’s a trade you win.

  1. I was just offered Dez Bryant and Tre Mason for Jamaal Charles, Knile Davis and Sammy Watkins. I like Dez and have tried to trade for him in the past but I don’t feel like this would be the right trade offer for me to bite on. If I gave up Charles and Davis my other running backs would be CJ Anderson, Montee Ball, Alfred Morris, Matt Jones, Jay Ajayi, Fred Jackson, and Danny Woodhead. I don’t see Mason as an upgrade to this list. My receivers could use some help, so should I stand pat and try to get an elite receiver somewhere else?Ben in NC

Yeah, as much as I like Dez Bryant (he’s my overall dynasty WR2), I think you’re paying just a bit too much over the top. Jamaal Charles remains, at least in my opinion, arguably the best running back in the NFL, and I’m still bullish on Sammy Watkins emerging from the quarterback quagmire in Buffalo to make some noise this year. The opportunity to rid yourself of Knile Davis just isn’t enough for me to suggest accepting this deal – you’d need to get something else back in return (think a running back in the range of Jonathan Stewart or Doug Martin) for this to be worth your while.

  1. I’m in a dynasty-ish league where we keep 13 players.  I plan to keep five receivers this year, including  Demaryius Thomas and Kelvin Benjamin are, and have to choose from Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Charles Johnson, Kenny Stills and Kendall Wright for the last three. I also have pick 1.03 and am leaning receiver there as well.  What are your thoughts?  Who are the top three to keep after DT and Benjamin, or should I keep two and hope for Amari Cooper at 1.03?Aaron in NY

The most obvious choice to me is to keep Brandon Marshall, who I expect to exceed expectations despite a move to the quarterback-poor Jets. Chan Gailey has previously shown an ability to get the ball to his top guy, and to me that remains Marshall despite his injury-plagued 2014 campaign. I’d also seek to hang onto Andre Johnson, who could and should have a big year with easily the best quarterback he’s ever played with, and if you can sneak one more in I’d want to hang onto Eric Decker as well. Unless there’s a rule prohibiting you from keeping too many receiver, I don’t think this should deter you from selecting one in your rookie draft either, as even if Cooper isn’t there one of White or DeVante Parker will be.

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eric hardter