The DLF Mailbag (Bonus Edition)
Welcome to the latest BONUS edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*
- I play in a partial keeper league where each team (we have 16) can keep three players, but you lose the draft pick of the round where that player was originally drafted. I’m debating between four players: Eddie Lacy (round one), Jordy Nelson (round two), Dez Bryant (round four) and Travis Kelce (round 13). Another team just offered me their first and second round picks for Lacy (the first round pick is the 5th overall). I’m inclined to say yes so I can keep Kelce, but losing Lacy would hurt even through he’ll cost me my first round pick. Given that we start one running back, what should I do? – Steve in DC
I’d make the trade. Sure, with 48 players already off the board you’re going to have a tougher time finding a starting ball carrier, but the fact is you only need one in your lineup on a weekly basis. This means you could be a bit more spendthrift at the position and target players like Justin Forsett, Doug Martin and Jonathan Stewart to get you by, while also having two first round picks to help supplement your roster. Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson were no brainer options in my opinion anyhow, and now you’ll get to keep Kelce at an incredibly price as well – I think it’s in your best interest to pull the trigger here.
- We essentially have 10 keepers from last year’s team, which we will carry into our full dynasty draft in a few weeks. I’ve got studs at receiver and running back, and Cam Newton and Matt Stafford at quarterback (it’s a 2QB league). I have one more keeper spot available, so should I keep Teddy Bridgewater or Allen Robinson? – Parker in TX
Apart from our own Nick Whalen, I’m perhaps the biggest Allen Robinson supporter there is, having followed him since he was a freshman at Penn State. That said, you simply have to keep Teddy Bridgewater here. In a 2QB league quarterback is king, and Bridgewater has a great shot at being a top 15-20 fantasy option. If nothing else, he should command a great price on the trade market if only due to positional scarcity, or you can start him when Matt Stafford and Cam Newton have bad matchups – so with all apologies to my favorite young receiver, Bridgewater is the guy.
- I’m in the second year of a 12-team PPR dynasty league. I’m set at quarterback with Russell Wilson, and at receiver with AJ Green, Randall Cobb, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Michael Floyd, Allen Robinson and Cordarrelle Patterson, but need help at running back and tight end. I’m trying to trade Beckham for Rob Gronkowski and I want to know if I need to add my 1.06 pick or another player to make this deal? Do you have any suggestions on running backs I could target via trade with my receiver surplus, or should I just draft running backs with the sixth pick in each round in our rookie draft? – Rudy in TX
For starters I don’t think you need to add anything to get the first deal done. Odell Beckham has quickly risen through the ranks, and is even considered by some to be the top overall dynasty asset. Rob Gronkowski, easily the best tight end in the game, is up there as well, so depending on positional needs and personal preference I think this is about as even a swap as possible.
To the latter, I think you might be better served opting for TJ Yeldon at pick 1.06, or Melvin Gordon if he somehow falls that far (it’s unlikely, but crazier things have happened). You can certainly try to supplement your ball carrying corps via trade, but you’ll truthfully only be about four-deep if you’re able to complete the Gronkowski trade, as I don’t trust Michael Floyd or Cordarrelle Patterson any farther than I can throw them (and I haven’t been to the gym in a few months). The other alternative is to trade pick 1.06 directly for a veteran ball carrier (think along the lines of Carlos Hyde or Lamar Miller), or you can trade back to the end of the first round and pick up a guy like Stewart, Martin, or even CJ Spiller in the process. I believe these to be preferable to trading two of your receivers, potentially leaving you thin there.
- In our PPR dynasty league I have Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Marques Colston and Nelson Agholor for receivers and Martellus Bennett, Eric Ebron and Maxx Williams for my tight ends. I have been offered Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Marshall and Philip Dorsett for Antonio Brown and Bennett. I am a huge Pats fan and I know how dominant Gronk is but would you do it? Losing Antonio makes me cry a little bit. – Doug in Toronto
Absolutely. Much like with Beckham above, I have Antonio Brown valuated similarly in the upper echelon of dynasty assets. This essentially means you’d be receiving the duo of Brandon Marshall (the current Jets WR1) and Phillip Dorsett (perhaps the long-term Indy WR2, or WR1 if TY Hilton leaves town come 2016) in return for Martellus Bennett. I like Bennett as much as anyone, but Gronkowski is a difference maker at the position, and Marshall should help mitigate the damage from losing Brown. Dorsett functions as the figurative cherry on top of an already solid deal – I wouldn’t hesitate to accept this one.
- I’m in my second year of rebuilding and through great trades, I have picks 1.02 and 1.06 this upcoming year. I also have three first round picks next year and two first round picks in 2017. I’ve had an offer for my 1.06 pick for Josh Gordon and pick 2.03. I want to pick Dorial Green-Beckham with that pick but also really like Gordon. I’m looking for advice to what Gordon’s future could be, or should I stay with DGB or even TJ Yeldon since I’m week at running back? – Michael in LA
I like Josh Gordon and truly believe he’s going to turn it around come 2016, and that was before reading the reports about how he’s been training with former NFL great Randy Moss this off-season. However, the fact remains we’ve been burnt before by Gordon, and he simply has too many red flags for me to consider this as good return on your potential trade. Continuing, I’m not so sure you should be looking into Dorial Green-Beckham at that spot either, as he hasn’t exactly been a model citizen during his time in college. I’d much rather go with Yeldon, or a receiver like Nelson Agholor. Since you’re rebuilding I think it’s just a better plan to go with a “safer” option who still likely possesses the same upside as the “bad boys.”
- Via trade, I have the first overall pick in my league’s rookie/FA draft. I need to solidify my WR3 and RB2 spots, and I like both Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper. I’m leaning slightly towards Cooper as I think he is the safer pick and will have longer career. Would it be better for me to trade back to get picks 1.03 and 1.09, and maybe some help at tight end? – Bob in NJ
I think it all depends on how you view the next tier of rookies, including Melvin Gordon, Kevin White and DeVante Parker. If you believe they’re roughly in line with Todd Gurley and Amari Cooper then I think you should make the deal. However, if you view Gurley and Cooper as a tier above then I’d rather stand pat, given that the area surrounding pick 1.09 is a lot murkier than the top of the draft. Should you stay put, I don’t think you can really go wrong here, as both Cooper and Gurley would represent excellent choices – much like with the initial portion of my answer here, it all comes down to personal preference.
- Do you have any strategies on using auto-draft? I have to work the night of the draft can’t use my cell at work. The draft is 19 rounds and it’s a 16-team league. We also keep 14 players on our 32-man roster. Other than ranking the players, is there anything else to consider? – Jim in WI
The good news is since there will already be 224 players off the board, it’s not as if missing on any of your potential targets should have huge ramifications. And since I believe rookie drafts (and the best players available here will, in all likelihood, be rookies) should essentially be ordered by player talent as opposed to positional need, a pre-formed rankings list seems like the way to go. My only suggestion would be to see if you have someone you trust who can essentially serve as your draft proxy. If so, you can provide he/she with your rankings list, but also know that your picks will have a modicum of flexibility with the addition of the human element. If not, however, I think you just need to submit the pre-draft list and let the cards get dealt as they will.
- In a dynasty startup draft, are you aiming to trade up or down in the draft and why? – Sushi in NJ
With regards to the earlier rounds, and especially the first round, I’d much rather trade down if at all possible. The reason for that is my top tier will generally consist of upwards of 10 players across all positions, and therefore I don’t have a huge preference between who’s available at 1.01 versus the bottom of the first round. If you can trade down towards the bottom of that range, thereby picking up additional early-round picks, you’ll still be able to acquire a top-tier guy while also getting more of a head start towards filling out the rest of your starting lineup.
As for trading up, this is something I prefer to do in the middle rounds of the draft, when personal preference tends to be more of a driving factor as opposed to ADP. In order to get your guy you have to be willing to reach a little bit, but the assets you’ll need to give up in order to do so will be far less prohibitive. You can certainly trade up in the first round if there’s someone you truly believe to be a game-changer, but as mentioned above it’s going to cost you, ensuring you need to nail your remaining picks. Ultimately though, as with anything else in dynasty football, it’s going to come down to your personal preference and aversion to risk.
- I have the opportunity to offload Sammy Watkins for the price of two first round picks (2016 & 2019) plus Teddy Bridgewater. I currently own Aaron Rogers and don’t have a backup, and my receivers are TY Hilton, Mike Evans, Watkins, Martavis Bryant, Justin Hunter and Justin Hardy. Is this a silly move to sell Watkins at this point, or am I getting great value for someone whose value could be considered low right now? – Rob in Vancouver
I’ll admit my eyes bulged a bit when I read your first sentence…that is until I saw where that pair of first round picks would fall. No, 2016 isn’t all that far off, but that’s a year of production you’d be losing before you could even cash in that pick. And even then, there’s no guarantee as to whether it will be an early selection, or that you’d make the correct choice either.
But that pales in comparison to the fact you wouldn’t be able to use that second pick until four years from now! That’s simply too much dead time and there’s a strong chance Sammy Watkins will rebound and post a plethora of points between now and then. Even assuming you nail that pick (and that your league still exists, which is no guarantee), you’re going to be well back of the eight-ball in terms of how long it will take for you to make up for lost time.
Teddy Bridgewater is a nice throw-in, but as mentioned you already have a top-three asset at the position in Aaron Rodgers. So in other words, he’s a backup at worst and injury protection at best. No thanks, I’d much rather bank on Watkins turning it around then projecting the future years down the road.
- Our 12-team, 2QB league (six points per touchdown) is going into year two and we are able to keep five players from current rosters, with an additional five players after the coming season for a total of 10 keepers. I’m keeping Andrew Luck, Matt Stafford, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews this season, but am torn on a draft strategy. I made the playoffs last year, so I don’t want to regress, but I’m inclined to draft (and keep) young talent. With this year’s draft essentially starting in round five does it make sense to spend early picks on Todd Gurley, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Amari Cooper even with a lot of productive veterans on the board? – Thomas in NY
I don’t see any reason to deviate from what your normal draft strategy would have been if there weren’t an additional five keepers coming down the pipeline. Yes, the allure of youth is always there, but the fact is there should still be plenty of “middle-aged” assets available who can provide fantasy sustenance for a short-term, multi-year window. If you perceive those players to be better than the rookies available then I’d pick them – there are always going to be future rookie drafts, after all. The end game is to win and selecting the players who will help you do so should remain the ultimate goal.
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