Three the Hard Way: The Fantasy Fortunes of the Philly Linebackers

Mo Brewington

eagleslbs

Editor’s Note: This article is written by a new addition to Team DLF – Mo Brewington. We welcome Mo to the team and look forward to his work in the future!

DeMeco Ryans, Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso enter 2015 at three very different points in their NFL careers. Ryans is the consummate pro coming off the second Achilles tear of his career at age 31. Alonso is returning from an ACL injury suffered while rehabbing a torn labrum in July 2014. Kendricks lost nearly half of 2014 to a calf injury, putting a damper on what should have been his breakout campaign.

All three players could start for the majority of NFL clubs in either a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. Having three stud MLBs competing for two starting jobs is a problem coaches welcome. You can never have too many playmakers. It’s a ridiculously perplexing problem for fantasy owners, who simply want to know who’ll be on the field and avoid timeshares at all cost.

If a MLB-by-Committee situation ensues, are any of them viable top 24 Fantasy candidates? Or do they cannibalize each other into irrelevance, becoming wildly unpredictable from week-to-week just like Patriot running backs?

Let’s take a look at what each player brings to the table, and see if we can decipher how they’ll be deployed by the Eagles.

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Alonso is the most logical starter of the three. To think Chip Kelly would give away a top five running back in the prime of his career only to play Kiko less than 75% of the snaps is outrageous. As a rookie, he finished as the LB2 in coverage, according to PFF. Combine that with a staggering 159 total tackles (11 of them for loss) and it’s easy to see Alonso’s three-down potential. Early indications say he’s 100% recovered and will be “Full Go” for training camp.

The Eagles demonstrated their commitment to Ryans by way of a two-year extension which re-starts his ‘Dead Money Clock’ to the tune of $4 Million over the next two seasons. This is significant because heading into 2015, Ryans was a 31-year old coming off his second devastating achilles injury in the final year of a contract which had no guaranteed money attached to it. Had his recovery taken a turn for the worse, forcing the Eagles to cut the veteran, the team would have had zero financial obligations to DeMeco. And yet, only six months after Ryans collapsed on the field at Reliant Stadium before his former Texans and new Eagles teammates (all of whom revere the man for his leadership and professionalism), here he was, receiving a 2 year extension worth $7.5 Million ($6.25 Million of which was guaranteed) when he easily could have become a cap casualty in the wake of the Eagles free agent binge this spring. This unblinking level of faith in their defensive captain tells you everything you need to know about how the team views him. There was never any doubt he would return from the injury, age be damned. His value to the defense outweighed any risk of him failing to recover. While the extension cemented DeMeco’s place on the roster, it did anything but for Mychal Kendricks.

Upon acquiring Alonso, fans and analyst were giddy at the prospect of the Eagles fielding perhaps the most dynamic pair of MLBs in the League. Once news of the Ryans deal surfaced, the narrative quickly changed, painting Kendricks, in the final year of his rookie contract, as expendable. Many penciled him into Kelly’s master plan to land Marcus Mariota in a draft day trade. The draft has passed, the rumors persist. As training camp approaches, speculators envision Kendricks being shipped to a team that suffers catastrophic injury to a key linebacker during the preseason. The uncertainty surrounding Kendricks is palpable and comes through in his statements to the press, casting a shadow of doubt over a player otherwise poised to break out in a contract year – usually the type of player you welcome as a fantasy owner. Now there’s no easy way to predict how 2015 will unfold for the fourth year vet.

The trichotomy (Is that a word? It is now.) of playing styles amongst the three gives the best indication how they’ll be used. DC Billy Davis and Chip Kelly have stated their desire to stay in their base defense and limit an offense’s ability to dictate the Eagles personnel. To achieve this, they must field a lineup offering equal stopping power against both the run and pass.

The legendary struggles of Philly’s secondary in 2014 over shadowed the dominance of their front 7. Linemen Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan and Ced Thornton matured into one of the League’s most imposing groups of down linemen. They allowed only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, 4th lowest in the NFL, despite defending the 5th most runs plays overall. Offenses preoccupied with the 3-man front had few answers for pass rushers Connor Barwin, Vinny Curry and Brandon Graham, who combined for 30 of the Eagles 49 total sacks – second best in the NFL. They did this basically without Kendricks the first eight weeks while he recovered as well. The day Kendricks returned to full time duty (week eight vs. Houston) is the day Ryans went down for the year with the achilles. Through it all, the front seven continued to improve.

This dominance up front will free Eagles middle linebackers to make plays vs. the run padding their tackle stats. It could also increase the frequency with which quarterbacks are forced to get rid of the ball quickly to underneath receivers and avoid hits, forcing the MLBs to make more plays in the passing game. These developments give an edge to Kendricks, who graded among the top pass defending LBs of 2014 over the aging Ryans.

In 2015, the Eagles face some heavily run based offenses, (NYJ, WASH 2x, CAR, BUF,), DeMeco could have value in these contests. Philly also plays at least eight games,(ATL, DAL 2x, NO, NYG 2x, DET, NE) against passing attacks diverse enough to force them from their desired comfort zone in the base 3-4 alignment. The linebacker roles in the Nickel would almost certainly belong to Kendricks and Alonso. Should the Eagles find themselves leading a lot of games in the second half, the defense will certainly look to gear up to defend the pass. Again, advantage Kendricks.

One interesting possibility is the potential for Philly to use more Hybrid alignments, given the diversity of their front seven personnel. In 2014, the Birds often lined up Cox flanked by a rotation of Barwin, Graham, Curry and former Eagle Trent Cole, all with their hands in the dirt, set to rush the passer. They could choose to utilize such a four-man front, while sending all three linebackers out to give a 4-3 look. At the time of his hire, Chip Kelly opposed the idea of his defense being shackled to any particular defensive alignment, telling reporters, “Number one, it hinges on the players that we have. Then number two, it hinges on the situation of the game. There are no purists. No one runs a 3‑4 defense every single down. No one runs a 4-3 every single down. People have elements of both in there.” He went on to reiterate his desire for versatile personnel, “Can you be an outside linebacker and drop into coverage on first and second down and be a defensive end who rushes the quarterback on third down? So versatility is kind of the key to that. We think we have some guys like that…”

We know from watching his offenses, Kelly’s philosophy centers on creating and exploiting mismatches. This year, we may see that philosophy carried over to the defensive side of the ball like never before. Both Kendricks and Alonso would arguably be better fits in a 4-3 scheme than in the middle of a 3-4. Ryans was a former outside linebacker at Alabama, before moving inside for Houston. We’re constantly reminded Vinny Curry doesn’t fit the Eagles scheme (if nine sacks in only 349 snaps don’t fit your scheme, I’d argue your scheme is broken). Both Barwin and Graham were 4-3 ends prior to moving to outside linebacker. This defense has the ability to throw multiple players in multiple alignments, adapting to anything opponent throw it’s way. This is a fantastic circumstance for an NFL defense. However, when the player’s role is fluid, it’s a lousy one for a fantasy football owner trying to project value.

In my opinion, if you’re looking for fantasy production from the Eagles middle linebackers, the only safe bet is Alonso. He has the best odds of being a three-down player and staying on the field in nickel/dime looks. Don’t expect him to approach the 159 tackles he posted as a rookie, but he should easily top 100, and be amongst the top 12-24 linebackers in points at season’s end. I fear Kendricks’ fantasy production will disappoint as his snap count fluctuates weekly based on the Eagles opponent. But Kendricks makes a very interesting Dynasty prospect as the possibility he winds up on another team with renewed scoring potential is very real. Ryans, for my money, is not worth rostering. Consider all he has to overcome – his injury, age and competition. There’s no way to envision him posting meaningful Fantasy numbers in a part-time role.

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mo brewington
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