Next Man Up: Jeremy Johnson

Rob Willette Posted On July 23, 2015

johnson

The Dynasty Scouts “Next Man Up” series will profile the players ready to replace departing stars. They’re the talents who have bided their time behind Heisman candidates, or the freshman ready to explode onto the national scene. They may not replicate the production of their predecessors, yet they’re the best person equipped for the job.

Auburn Tigers QB

Moving On: Nick Marshall (2,532 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, seven interceptions; 798 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns)
Taking His Place: Jeremy Johnson (436 passing yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions)

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Next Man Up

Peruse any 2015 college football breakout list and you’ll likely see Jeremy Johnson’s name plastered somewhere near the top. He’s a natural choice. Nick Marshall became one of the nation’s premier dual-threat quarterbacks in Gus Malzahn’s system, despite clear passing limitations. There’s little question Johnson is a better overall talent. The looming question is if he can embrace the system like Marshall did.

The Goods

Johnson certainly looks the part. At 6’5”, 225 pounds with arm strength rivaled only by Uncle Rico, he’s the prototype, factory-made quarterback that draws gasps from the peanut gallery. With clean mechanics that include an over the top motion and a quick release, Johnson can eviscerate a defense at every level with precision passing. He’s willing to throw into tight windows and has the confidence to push the ball outside the hash marks; while not reckless, he is not afraid to take his shots down the field.

Any super-sized quarterback playing for Auburn is going to draw natural comparisons to Cam Newton. Newton’s athleticism is rare; there’s no shame in the fact that Johnson is not that type of runner. However, he’s plenty mobile, and even demonstrates the ability to get outside of edge-setting defenders to pick up yardage with his legs. Most importantly, he demonstrates functional mobility, navigating muddy pockets with his feet and awareness while still going through his reads. I’m of the belief that extending the play in the pocket is far more important than being a true running threat; this is on display despite a small sample size.

The sample size is admittedly small. We have only seen Johnson get extensive run in three games during his first two seasons on campus, and of that trio only Arkansas is a team that could pose any resistance. It is routine for players to flash for short spurts before they get exposed over long stretches. Despite limited exposure, we can glean his immense upside; he can already make NFL throws and he’s a cinch to post monster numbers in the Auburn offense. As he becomes more integrated into the national consciousness, he should see a meteoric rise in devy rankings.

Current Value

Johnson is currently an overlooked commodity, not even garnering a spot in the devy ADP compiled at DLF. Brand name talent with minimal NFL potential (I am looking at you, Dak Prescott) is securing a spot late in devy mocks; potentially the best quarterback prospect in the SEC is being passed over. Inundating the back-end of your devy roster with limited talents with established college production is akin to saving your last redraft roster spot for Riley Cooper instead of DeVante Parker. It is failing to maximize your roster’s potential.

Devy Projection

The fact I am a Jeremy Johnson fan has likely done backflips off the page. There’s a messy amalgam of quarterback talent that currently toils in the devy world. Many still trumpet Christian Hackenberg; others lust over Cardale Jones’ potential following his three game playoff stint for the Buckeyes in 2014. There’s no consensus, and it has made a quarterback a dicey investment even in two quarterback or super flex leagues. Despite the lack of clarity at the position, I’m scooping up Johnson wherever I can. From a pure tools perspective, he may be rivaled only by Jones, and there’s little reason to doubt he will be productive in the Auburn scheme surrounded by top-tier offensive talent.

One of the more difficult things to avoid in the devy community is groupthink. It pervades the entire fantasy game, and can especially be cumbersome when assessing college talent given how many teams there are and the little exposure we gain to many players. While exposure will be no issue for Johnson now that he is locked and loaded as a starting quarterback in the SEC, he’s still not getting the notoriety he deserves, as illustrated by his ADP (or lack thereof). Drop the shackles of taking the player you’re expected to, and zig when others are zagging. That is the route I am taking with Johnson, and it is the reason I have him sitting atop my devy rankings at the quarterback position.

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