FFPC $750 Start-up Draft Review
Editor’s Note: We hope you’ve enjoyied our 2015 FFPC draft coverage. The high stakes component makes for an intriguing variable and readers should appreciate these coaches paying the price to compete at this level while also giving these drafts extra attention. The FFPC games are unlike any other in the industry due to their length of time and visibility in the space. Since beginning their dynasty games in 2010, they only continue to gain in popularity. Whereas DLF is a place you can call home for the best dynasty content to your win league, the FFPC provides the best platform to apply our content – the top competition on the planet and huge dollar purses are just an added bonus!
Welcome to our fourth installment of our 2015 FFPC draft coverage and our FIRST start-up draft!
DLF and the FFPC are new partners for 2015 and, as such, we’ve been covering drafts to be used as another source of reference for your own drafts. The thought here is that the “high stakes” label brings with it a higher degree of fantasy coaching experience and performance. These coaches are putting serious money on the line with the hope of greater payouts at the end of the rainbow and you can bet that most put a lot of work and research into each selection. With this particular FFPC dynasty league requiring a $750 entry fee, there’s no room for mistakes.
This review is a $750 12-team start-up draft. Standard scoring Point Per Reception (PPR) format with the exception that tight ends receive 1.5 PPR. Passing touchdowns are worth the standard four points while rushing and receiving touchdowns bring six points each. Starting rosters are as follows: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST. One note about the FFPC Dynasty format: Each team has 20 total roster spots with one each given to kickers and Defense. At the end of each year, teams must drop four players to reach a total of 16 total players. This makes for a relatively shallow roster with emphasis on productive players. Just something to keep in mind as it’s different from deep dynasty formats that may see more than 30 rostered players.
For this review, I’ll be listing each round’s selections along with a brief summary following each round.
If you’re ready to step up to the most serious dynasty competition on the planet, we highly suggest you check out the FFPC Dynasty Games via the link or the advertisement on the DLF home page!
Let’s dive in!
Round One
1.01 Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
1.02 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
1.03 Odell Beckham, WR NYG
1.04 Le’Veon Bell, RB PIT
1.05 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
1.06 Julio Jones, WR ATL
1.07 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
1.08 Mike Evans, WR TB
1.09 Andrew Luck, QB IND
1.10 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN
1.11 Eddie Lacy, RB GB
1.12 Randall Cobb, WR GB
Summary
Gronk going at 1.01 is a major surprise, even with format. It’s a bold move but with 82 receptions in 2014, Gronk is arguably the best receiver on the board considering the 1.5 PPR. At 26 years of age, he likely has another four-to-five great years left. Rodgers as the second player off the board in a single quarterback format is another surprise. The debate will continue as to how soon you should select your quarterback in a start-up draft. Given the recent parity at the position, I’m still a strong fan of waiting until after the seventh round. You must have a great quarterback if you plan to compete over a long period of time. Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck remain at the top and will be take early. After those two names, there’s little need to rush into a name given the variability and minor point differential.
Other names such as Evans and Cobb are minor surprises but both are young receivers with a lot of upside and continued production expected. It’s also obvious that even with the requirement of starting two running backs, the shift for 2015 to receivers over running backs continues. Bell and Lacy are young and every-down backs and will be selected in the first round in nearly every dynasty start-up draft. Beyond those two, expect to see a lot of receivers.
Round Two
2.01 Jordy Nelson, WR GB
2.02 Jimmy Graham, TE SEA
2.03 A.J. Green WR CIN
2.04 Amari Cooper, WR OAK
2.05 Todd Gurley, RB STL
2.06 Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
2.07 Calvin Johnson, WR DET
2.08 DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU
2.09 LeSean McCoy, RB BUF
2.10 Brandin Cooks, WR NO
2.11 DeMarco Murray, RB PHI
2.12 Sammy Watkins, WR BUF
Summary
Not a lot of surprise in, this, the second round. Nelson is aging and could be on the downside of his career. But he remains in a great offense with an equally great quarterback. He’s a near lock to be in the top ten of receivers once again. A.J. Green is an interesting case and I’ve found myself more down on him of late. Injury concerns remain and his numbers have suffered. Not helping his situation is the murky play of quarterback Andy Dalton. I like the long term play of Gurley at 2.05 even though he will likely have a slow start in 2015. Brandin Cooks, if he can remain healthy should be a monster in PPR formats and is a solid selection in the second or early third rounds. Watkins is a bit of a risk in the second round as his situation is less than desirable and Buffalo has remained a wasteland for receivers for some time. But Watkins is young, dynamic and possesses a lot of upside.
[inlinead]Round Three
3.01 T.Y. Hilton, WR IND
3.02 Jordan Matthews, WR PHI
3.03 Jeremy Hill, RB CIN
3.04 Keenan Allen, WR SD
3.05 Jamaal Charles, RB KC
3.06 Matt Forte, RB CHI
3.07 Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
3.08 Melvin Gordon, RB SD
3.09 Kevin White, WR CHI
3.10 C.J. Anderson, RB DEN
3.11 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
3.12 Travis Kelce, TE KC
Summary
We finally see a run on the big name backs. All are nearing (or already) 30 years of age and with less than three years of productivity remaining. This is a good example of what the high stakes label will do to a draft. Many will be willing to build for the future but it’s a much more costly prospect to forego being competitive in year one. Would you be willing to build for two-plus years knowing that each year is costing you $750 or more? I believe this explains why these veteran backs are being taken ahead of younger names such as Melvin Gordon and C.J. Anderson.
Travis Kelce has been a major riser in dynasty drafts and he’s appearing beginning in late round three, as he is here.
Round Four
4.01 Kelvin Benjamin, WR CAR
4.02 Emmanuel Sanders, WR DEN
4.03 T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX
4.04 Arian Foster, RB HOU
4.05 Zach Ertz, TE PHI
4.06 Justin Forsett, RB BAL
4.07 Allen Robinson, WR JAX
4.08 Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
4.09 Greg Olsen, TE CAR
4.10 Davante Adams, WR GB
4.11 DeSean Jackson, WR WAS
4.12 DeVante Parker, WR MIA
Summary
The Sanders selection is curious but there’s no doubting his potential and past production while Manning is at quarterback. I really like the picks of Robinson and Adams as big young receivers with a lot of upside. I’m not confident that Forsett will repeat his 2014 campaign and his future is very cloudy. His selection suggests a play to ensure this coach is competitive THIS year.
Round Five
5.01 Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
5.02 Jordan Cameron, TE MIA
5.03 Carlos Hyde, RB SF
5.04 Jeremy Maclin, WR KC
5.05 Golden Tate, WR DET
5.06 C.J. Spiller, RB NO
5.07 Martavis Bryant, WR PIT
5.08 Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
5.09 Jarvis Landry, WR MIA
5.10 Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
5.11 Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
5.12 Giovani Bernard, RB CIN
Summary
Let the reaches and guesswork begin. I’m not suggesting that these are bad selections at all but, instead, that this is the round where your homework as a coach can really pay off. If you have good resources (DLF?), rounds five through twelve can be the golden rounds where a coach ‘cleans up’ while others take wild stabs. The first four rounds of any start-up draft can be relatively forgiving in that even if you make a mistake, you likely still have a productive player. Make mistakes in the next five to seven rounds and you can damage your team for a long time to come. These are the rounds where savvy coach balances youth, upside and production to build a future dynasty or add veteran productive talent to young players selected earlier toward competing and winning now.
I love the selection of Bryant here. A lot of upside in this name in an offense where Antonio Bryant will receive most of the attention. We also see many 2015 rookies such as Agholor, Green-Beckham, Perriman and Coleman. Perriman, specifically, has a world of upside in an offense made for him. If he can overcome drop issues, he could be productive very early in his career and have a brilliant career. Carlos Hyde is an interesting case but I like the selection. He’s a risk-reward play but should get every chance to be the bell-cow. I don’t like the Spiller selection and I own him in zero leagues – for a reason. I’ve never owned him and have been very vocal about my dislike for his situation, usage and ability to stay healthy. Perhaps New Orleans will be the reboot he needs but I’m still staying away. Far away.
Round Six
6.01 Tyler Eifert, TE CIN
6.02 Julian Edelman, WR NE
6.03 Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ
6.04 Julius Thomas, TE JAX
6.05 Eric Ebron, TE DET
6.06 John Brown, WR ARI
6.07 Mark Ingram, RB NO
6.08 Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE TB
6.09 Michael Floyd, WR ARI
6.10 Latavius Murray, RB OAK
6.11 Alfred Morris, RB WAS
6.12 Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Summary
The tight end run starts with five selected in round six. This is about right for the run, usually starting in round six or round seven. It will usually start with one coach leading into the position at a time when others have similar needs and fear getting left out if a run begins. The is a favorite strategy of mine to utilize, seeing if I can start the run to the point where I can select my chosen tight end and see five or six others come off the board shortly after my selection, thus pushing other position players down to me for my next selection. If you can’t start the run, or be an early participant, it’s best to let it go and stay to true to your draft board as the remaining tight ends will likely continue to fall. This strategy can also be used with shallow IDP formats.
Round Seven
7.01 Russell Wilson, QB SEA
7.02 Victor Cruz, WR NYG
7.03 Joseph Randle, RB DAL
7.04 Matt Ryan, QB ATL
7.05 Martellus Bennett, TE CHI
7.06 Cam Newton, QB CAR
7.07 Charles Johnson, WR MIN
7.08 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
7.09 Andre Johnson, WR IND
7.10 Andre Ellington, RB ARI
7.11 Isaiah Crowell, RB CLE
7.12 Josh Gordon, WR CLE
Case in point. This is why you should feel good about passing on an early round quarterback. Not to say that Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck aren’t the top slingers to own, but when you can get Russell Wilson, Cam Newton or Matt Ryan six rounds later, there’s a strong case to be made for doing just that. I fully expect now we’ll see another three or four quarterbacks come off in the next two rounds.
We see some risk taking with selections of Randle, Josh Gordon and perhaps even Charles Johnson. All are good risk-reward plays and this is the round to start making your young rookie and long term upside stabs.
Round Eight
8.01 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
8.02 Maxx Williams, TE BAL
8.03 Duke Johnson, RB CLE
8.04 Mike Wallace, WR MIN
8.05 Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
8.06 Frank Gore, RB IND
8.07 Torrey Smith, WR SF
8.08 Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
8.09 Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
8.10 Devin Funchess, WR CAR
8.11 Knile Davis, RB KC
8.12 Tre Mason, RB STL
Summary
As expected, we see mostly young players, rookies and only a single quarterback. Personally, I prefer to still hedge with veteran players until round nine or so as long as good names still exist in the pool. A large majority of second tier rookies and below will never make an impact in the NFL. Singling out names like Wallace, Gore, Smith and Davis ensures that you are getting players that have a role now while most still have a good amount of upside.
Round Nine
9.01 Kendall Wright, WR TEN
9.02 Michael Crabtree, WR OAK
9.03 David Johnson, RB ARI
9.04 Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
9.05 Drew Brees, QB NO
9.06 Doug Martin, RB TB
9.07 Coby Fleener, TE IND
9.08 Shane Vereen, RB NYG
9.09 David Cobb, RB TEN
9.10 Eric Decker, WR NYJ
9.11 Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN
9.12 Matthew Stafford, QB DET
Summary
Again, how far of a fall have we just witnessed for Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford? And as a coach who waited to draft his quarterback, you have to feel good about your situation. Additionally, Doug Martin now looks like a nice value addition here in the ninth. I was very vocal about why coaches should stay away from Martin early in his career and I didn’t own him in any league – until this year. While most were selecting him in the first and second rounds, I followed my own advice and steered clear. Now barely registering on the radar and with little expectation, I’m selecting him in the eighth round or later as a pure upside play. He’s still young and has enough size if he can stay healthy, an issue that has plagued him as a professional.
The choice of wright and Decker are also nice value plays. Both are off-receivers with the ability to be productive for stretches, especially in PPR.
Round Ten
10.01 Cody Latimer, WR DEN
10.02 Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
10.03 Bishop Sankey, RB TEN
10.04 Donte Moncrief, WR IND
10.05 Rueben Randle, WR NYG
10.06 Brandon LaFell, WR NE
10.07 Charles Sims, RB TB
10.08 Vincent Jackson, WR TB
10.09 Joique Bell, RB DET
10.10 Josh Hill, TE NO
10.11 Darren McFadden, RB DAL
10.12 Jace Amaro, TE NYJ
Summary
Round ten brings pure value drafting after the second tier rookie run has completed. I love the selections of Latimer, Moncrief, Randle, Jackson and Bell. All players who have a lot of years left in the NFL that are just coming into their roles. Again, these players I believe can be drafted BEFORE the second set of rookies. These veterans have already put in their time, have expanding roles and are maturing rather than being completely untested. My recent research has shown that rookies drafted outside of the first round in fantasy rookie drafts, don’t produce greater than 80% of the time. The odds strongly favor the addition of a young veteran over second round+ rookies.
Round Eleven
11.01 Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN
11.02 Brian Quick, WR STL
11.03 Jameis Winston, QB TB
11.04 Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
11.05 Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
11.06 Matt Jones, RB WAS
11.07 Darren Sproles, RB PHI
11.08 Ben Roethlisberger, QB PIT
11.09 Percy Harvin, WR BUF
11.10 Devonta Freeman, RB ATL
11.11 Tom Brady, QB NE
11.12 Christine Michael, RB SEA
Summary
Roethlisberger was the QB6 last year in fantasy points, 15 points away from being the QB3. Need any other reason to wait on selecting your quarterback? Our top two rookie quarterbacks go in this round as well, a pretty good dynasty value.
Round Twelve
12.01 Peyton Manning, QB DEN
12.02 Rashad Jennings, RB NYG
12.03 Andre Williams, RB NYG
12.04 LeGarrette Blount, RB NE
12.05 Ladarius Green, TE SDC
12.06 Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN
12.07 Eli Manning, QB NYG
12.08 Owen Daniels, TE DEN
12.09 Jason Witten, TE DAL
12.10 Javorius Allen, RB BAL
12.11 Marqise Lee, WR JAX
12.12 Kenny Stills, WR MIA
Our final reviewed round. The Manning brothers, Peyton (QB3) and Eli (QB12) are selected in the same round. I like the selections of Green, who is a nice value as well as Stills, who should see increased targets now in Miami.
Below is a snapshot of rounds 13-20 to complete the draft.
I hope this recap has been beneficial. Use it to gauge player value prior to your draft and, especially, toward determining how you want to build your team, where you should draft your first quarterback and what tight end possibilities remain if you wait a few rounds. One last time, most coaches will like their first three or four selections. Your draft and long term team strength will be determined in the following eight or so rounds. So do your homework, look at many drafts with a keen eye on the selection number that you hold and don’t get outworked.
If you have any questions, please comment below or follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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