Summer Sleeper: Washington Redskins
We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.
To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:
- Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
- Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
- Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.
Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Allen Robinson or C.J. Anderson, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.
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Niles Paul, TE, Washington Redskins – Deep Sleeper
When our content guru Ken Kelly forced me at knifepoint asked me nicely to do the Summer Sleeper article on the football team from Washington, my first inclination was to talk about 2015 fourth round pick Jamison Crowder. While the potential future starting slot receiver makes for interesting conjecture, a more pertinent topic would be one Niles I. Paul (the “I” stand for “I don’t know what his middle name is but it seemed more dignified if I used an initial so I went with it). I didn’t initially consider Paul because I assumed he didn’t fit our profile as a sleeper. But considering he went undrafted in three of DLF’s five June mocks, I think we have a worthy subject for deeper discussion.
A wide receiver in college, Paul had a decent showing at the 2011 NFL combine. He ran well (4.51 40) for a big (6’1”, 224 lbs) receiver and put up 24 reps on the bench press, a figure that would have ranked first this year at his position. With that sort of strength and only so-so numbers in other measureables, Paul was probably destined to transition to his current role, yet Washington selected him in the fifth round as a wideout.
Paul’s first season was spent chasing down kick returners and handing cups of Gatorade to vets. By year two, the team had decided a move to tight end was in order. Over the next couple seasons, Paul worked on technique and bulking up to a big enough size to use it. His efforts paid off last year when incumbent Jordan Reed broke down for the second consecutive campaign, opening up an opportunity for Paul to shine, and boy did he.
When Reed hurt his hamstring early in the Skins Week 1 game against Houston, Paul stepped in as the receiving half of a platoon with Logan Paulsen. In the four games, the backup turned starter received at least four targets where he posted 10.6, 23.9, 12.8, and 9 PPR points for an average of a hair over 14 points per game. Once Reed returned, Paul’s stats dwindled, and he finished with a 39/507/1 line on 52 targets (note the fantastic catch percentage).
With Reed back and presumably ready to reassert himself as the team’s dominant pass catching tight end this season, things may look a bit bleak for our subject. Or they did, rather, until Reed underwent a mysterious knee procedure in late May. Neither Washington or Reed have spoken on the nature of the operation, but word is they expect him to be ready for the season. Even then, there is plenty of room for concern with the oft-injured starter having logged only 11 games in 2014 and nine the season before. The odds seem favorable Reed won’t put in a full slate in 2015 either.
Here is where it gets interesting…
After playing at around 240 pounds last season (15 above his combine weight), Paul has bulked up considerably to a reported (by him) 252. In the same discussion where he mentioned his weight, Paul talked about his efforts towards being a better blocker and a more complete tight end in general. Apparently the Redskins are buying it, as they handed him a three year deal this off-season, making him the highest paid tight end on the roster in the process (Paulsen makes more this year, but Paul’s total deal is worth more). Whether this was to secure a premium backup to their fragile starter or to give him legitimate competition is yet to be determined.
If/when Reed goes down, Paul has mid-TE1 upside and a mid-TE2 floor. In 12-team leagues with a roster size of 22 or more, the former Nebraska WR should absolutely be owned ahead of the likes of Gavin Escobar, Jesse James, C.J. Fiedowicz, and Troy Niklas. If you are rebuilding I’d prefer him over another five or six guys being selected ahead of him. But most importantly, if you have Reed on your roster, Paul should be a primary target in FA or via trade.
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- How to Win Without Watching Football - July 22, 2021
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - July 9, 2018
- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018
