Summer Sleeper: Buffalo Bills

Jacob Feldman

bills

We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Allen Robinson or C.J. Anderson, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up.  Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

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I almost feel sorry for Buffalo Bills fans. There is a certain bit of pride in owning a player from your favorite NFL team on your fantasy squads. As a Bears fan, I have Matt Forte or Alshon Jeffery in almost every league I’m in. It is fun cheering for them in real life and in fantasy. That isn’t exactly a feeling many Bills fans have had over the last several years. Sure, there was the annual CJ Spiller hype which normally turned into Fred Jackson getting 200+ carries. Before that, you had Lee Evans who seemed to almost without fail post at least one 3/200/2 game a year before disappearing into the woodwork.

Of course the 2015 Bills have a few players who could change all of that for Bills fans. LeSean McCoy is now in town. When paired with Rex Ryan he should post solid RB1 numbers once again to make Buffalo fans happy. Sammy Watkins is also going to continue to emerge, though I think his upside is a little capped by the quarterback play and his skill set being very good but not elite. Unfortunately, after those two there might not be much for fantasy relevance outside of newly signed Charles Clay. I’m just not a believer in Robert Woods ever being more than average or Percy Harvin suddenly turning into a true wide receiver. The sun seems to be setting on the ageless Fred Jackson, and there really isn’t anyone else on roster of note. Though there is one name I wanted to toss out there for those of you in super deep leagues.

Karlos Williams, RB BUF
Category: Super Deep Sleeper

At the current point in time, Williams is likely listed as the fifth running back on the Buffalo depth chart. Even for a super deep sleeper that is a pretty long ways to climb for fantasy relevance. Before you click the little X on the top right hand corner of your window hear me out. We know McCoy is the top dog for the Bills and that isn’t going to change no matter what. However, running backs do get hurt from time to time. Rex Ryan plans on running the ball an awful lot, so there is a chance McCoy misses a little bit of time. If he does, his backup will likely be given a very heavy workload as well. The question is exactly who the backup will be.

The current choice is clearly Fred Jackson. Of course, Jackson is 34 years old and his effectiveness per touch hit career lows last season in Buffalo. His 3.7 yards per carry last season are near the bottom of the league for rushers with a major role on their team. We like to think of Jackson as being ageless, but last season seemed to be the start of the end for him. He isn’t dynamic by any means, and I think he could be easily aside by someone who shows a little more upside during training camp and the pre-season.

Behind Jackson is the duo of Bryce Brown and Anthony “Boobie” Dixon. Both Brown and Dixon are holdovers from the previous regime but are very different players. Brown has a lot of natural athletic ability, but he is very loose with the football and can’t run between the tackles. I’m not sure how well that is going to work with the Rex Ryan/Greg Roman smash mouth running game. As for Dixon, he has the smash mouth style, but he is lacking in just about every other area. His ability in the passing game is suspect, and he lacks athletic ability to be an explosive rusher. If you could combine the two you might have a great running back but as it stands it is likely that one of them will be cut in the next month or two. Brown skipping several of the “voluntary” workouts this Spring might not have helped his cause very much.

Regardless of who gets cut or traded from the veterans, we know the fifth round pick of the current coaching staff is going to be sticking around. Williams has the big frame to go with strength and speed to be a quality NFL rusher. His power rushing game fits in perfectly with the type of scheme the currently coaches want to feature in Buffalo. Not only does he have the power, but he has the speed to explode through the line and turn a 5 yard gain into a 15 or 20 yard play. He can also use that speed to get to the corner when needed on outside runs or if the holes just aren’t there.

Of course there is a reason Williams was a fifth round pick. Not only are there quite a few off the field concerns, but his desire and work ethic on the field have also been questionable. He was noticeably out of shape his last year at Florida State and rarely seemed to finish his runs. The coaching staff noticed and starter to scale back his role. Even this didn’t motivate him, and he finished the season as a backup. The rusher we saw in 2014 was a very different one from the 2013 version. The Bills need to hope they can coax the 2013 version back onto the field and keep him out of trouble off the field.

With no clear cut backup to McCoy, the job is there for the taking – this means Williams could have the opportunity to do something in the NFL. This is a big deal since opportunity is a huge part of being fantasy relevant. As far as talent goes, the 2013 version of Williams is good enough to be at least an average NFL running back. Of course the 2014 version will be out of the league in a few years, so it all depends on if Ryan and Roman can keep him in line. He’s someone to keep an eye on as Fall approached. After all, it isn’t like the Bills are loaded with talent. Williams could quickly rise through the ranks.

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jacob feldman