Summer Sleeper: New York Jets

Eric Hardter

jets

We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Allen Robinson or C.J. Anderson, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up.  Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

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It’s some kind of crazy how the Jets have one of the more intriguing offenses for 2015. Gone is the “ground and pound” ideology of Rex Ryan, replaced by new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey and his spread mentality. Sure, Geno Smith is still the man under center (I’ll admit, my faith was rattled last year, but I’m still keeping a smidgen of hope), but he’s now surrounded with legitimate playmakers at the pass-catching positions, including Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Jace Amaro and second round receiver Devin Smith.

With that said, identifying a sleeper was fairly challenging. None of the above players qualify, running back Chris Ivory is a little too well known and Jeremy Kerley would be bucking a massive trend to be the first fantasy-relevant ancillary receiver Gailey’s produced. Continuing, Zac Stacy just isn’t that good and Stevan Ridley might not even be ready for the start of the season.

All told, that leaves us with…

Bilal Powell, RB NYJ

At the present moment in time, Powell is slotted in as the team’s secondary ball carrier behind Ivory. Perhaps more importantly, over his career Powell has averaged 1.4 receptions per game, which is nothing to write home about for sure, but stands as double the value of the aggregate of Ivory, Stacy and Ridley (0.7 combined receptions per game on average). Though it’s true Ivory caught more passes last year, over their respective careers Powell has been the better weapon through the air, and it hasn’t been particularly close.

So while I don’t envision Powell unseating Ivory for the starting job (Ivory remains perhaps the best running back no one talks about), there is definitive potential here due to the nature of the offense. To explain that, let’s consider Gailey’s most recent tenure as the head coach of the Bills from 2010-2012:

powell1

All told, this led to the following per-game averages:

powell2

The first thing that can be gleaned from the data is Gailey prefers to involve multiple running backs. While his RB1 dominated roughly two-thirds of the carries, both ball carriers were involved in the passing game. All told, Gailey’s RB2 still averaged nearly 10 touches per contest.

Of course, it’s at this juncture it’s important to mention Gailey’s Buffalo ball carriers were none other than the ageless Fred Jackson and the dynamic CJ Spiller. Both of these players, despite their warts, are arguably more talented and consistent than their 2015 Jet counterparts. However, this sword is of the double-edged variety, meaning the argument can be brought back to the point I made just a few paragraphs ago.

Ivory functioned well enough in the passing game last season, but over the course of his career it simply hasn’t been his forte. If Gailey keeps up his rate of passing to running backs, it’s not unreasonable to assert the RB1/RB2 ratio could swing in favor of the latter. Of course, it’s fair to wonder if Powell will command as many carries as Gailey’s Buffalo RB2s, but in a PPR setting receptions are king for backup runners looking to find a niche – sure, this is a gamble, but for the price of a dead-fish handshake to acquire Powell, what are you losing to find out if you have a winning ticket?

The last piece in favor of Powell’s potential ascension into fantasy relevance actually lies on the other side of the ball. The Jets absolutely reloaded on defense, bringing in top-tier cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie (along with nickel-back Buster Skrine), along with the selection of Leonard Williams with the sixth overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Adding these players to an already dominant defensive line could actually mean more plays for the offense, as well as the <gasp> potential for playing close games into the fourth quarter – this could and should lead to full-game usage for New York’s ball carrying corps, lending credence to the possibility of more backfield receptions for Powell.

Look, I know I sound like a used car salesman right now, and I’m not expecting you to buy the Geo Metro I’m passing off as a Mercedes. But as long as Powell uses all three of his cylinders to speed down the highway Gailey is likely to pave for him, I’m willing to spend 10 cents a gallon on gas. Powell has the potential opportunity in front of him, and was re-signed (at least in part) by a guy who understands how to utilize him to his fullest capabilities – and for a team like the Jets, what more can you really hope for?

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter